Credit Writedowns » fake recovery http://www.creditwritedowns.com Finance, Economics and Markets Wed, 23 May 2012 16:15:53 +0000 en hourly 1 Predicting the future of policy making http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/11/predicting-the-future-of-policy-making.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/11/predicting-the-future-of-policy-making.html#comments Tue, 22 Nov 2011 02:47:39 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=36830 Predicting the future of policy making has been and will continue to be key to understanding where this economy is headed – and by extension what your investment portfolio will do

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Related Posts ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/11/predicting-the-future-of-policy-making.html/feed/ 40 The End of the Fake Recovery http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/the-end-of-the-fake-recovery.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/the-end-of-the-fake-recovery.html#comments Wed, 05 Oct 2011 13:25:50 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=33313 This is going to be a relatively long post. But I think it’s important. I have been meaning to update my thinking about the “Fake Recovery” which I heralded in early 2009 as the economy in the US began to turn. My view is that without policy support this recovery is now on its last legs. Here, I want to review how we got here in the context of the banking system and what that means about the banking crisis right now

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Related Posts ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/the-end-of-the-fake-recovery.html/feed/ 21 Mervyn King: “Systemic Insolvency Is Now The Problem” http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/mervyn-king-systemic-insolvency-is-now-the-problem.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/mervyn-king-systemic-insolvency-is-now-the-problem.html#comments Sat, 18 Dec 2010 01:27:15 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/mervyn-king-systemic-insolvency-is-now-the-problem.html I want to take you through how we got from the financial system’s "systemic insolvency" to bailouts to record profits and bonuses again in the span of two years. From the WikiLeaks cables as published in the Guardian today regarding a meeting with the US Ambassador to the United Kingdom and the Bank of England

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Related Posts ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/mervyn-king-systemic-insolvency-is-now-the-problem.html/feed/ 18 Cecchini: U.S. Consumers in `Dire’ Credit Situation http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/cecchini-u-s-consumers-in-dire-credit-situation.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/cecchini-u-s-consumers-in-dire-credit-situation.html#comments Sun, 04 Jul 2010 21:00:00 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/cecchini-u-s-consumers-in-dire-credit-situation.html Peter Cecchini, chief strategist at BGC Financial, talks to Pimm Fox about the U.S. economy and consumer credit on Bloomberg Television’s "Taking Stock." He says that the 122% percent household debt to GDP ratio is well above the pre-1980 average of 60-80%. Just to get back to a 100% to GDP ratio, we need an

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Related Posts ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/cecchini-u-s-consumers-in-dire-credit-situation.html/feed/ 1 Recovery Triumphalism and the Committee to Save Wall Street http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/04/recovery-triumphalism-and-the-committee-to-save-wall-street.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/04/recovery-triumphalism-and-the-committee-to-save-wall-street.html#comments Tue, 13 Apr 2010 12:40:00 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/04/recovery-triumphalism-and-the-committee-to-save-wall-street.html I am starting a new list of articles on my reading list which point to the success of what Marshall Auerback calls "The Committee to Save Wall Street," with this Newsweek cover as a contrarian indicator. The point is that the propaganda machine is out in full force. We are likely to see some serious

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Related Posts ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/04/recovery-triumphalism-and-the-committee-to-save-wall-street.html/feed/ 0 The next crisis is already under way http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/the-next-crisis-is-already-under-way.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/the-next-crisis-is-already-under-way.html#comments Mon, 19 Oct 2009 21:52:06 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/the-next-crisis-is-already-under-way.html Wolfgang Munchau of the Financial Times wrote a very important comment piece in today’s Financial Times. In it he said that central banks are targeting asset prices to avoid the brunt of cyclical downturns. This policy is inducing asset bubbles and creating a more volatile real economy with unpredictable negative consequences. I want to expand

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Related Posts ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/the-next-crisis-is-already-under-way.html/feed/ 5 The recession is over but the depression has just begun http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/the-recession-is-over-but-the-depression-has-just-begun.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/the-recession-is-over-but-the-depression-has-just-begun.html#comments Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:49:18 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/the-recession-is-over-but-the-depression-has-just-begun.html For the last few months I have been casting around looking for bullish data points as counterfactuals to my more bearish long-term outlook. I have found some, but not enough. If you recall, early this year, I stated that we are in depression, making the case for the ongoing downturn as a depression with a

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Related Posts No related posts. ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/the-recession-is-over-but-the-depression-has-just-begun.html/feed/ 15 The mother of all inventory corrections is not the same as re-stocking http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/the-mother-of-all-inventory-corrections-is-not-the-same-as-re-stocking.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/the-mother-of-all-inventory-corrections-is-not-the-same-as-re-stocking.html#comments Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:36:56 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/the-mother-of-all-inventory-corrections-is-not-the-same-as-re-stocking.html Back in April I told you I anticipated an uptick in GDP in part because of changes in inventories – massive change in the inventories. At the time, I thought I was going out on a limb by suggesting we could see positive GDP numbers in Q3 and Q4.  However, this is now the consensus.

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Related Posts ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/the-mother-of-all-inventory-corrections-is-not-the-same-as-re-stocking.html/feed/ 5 Is economic boom around the corner? http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/is-economic-boom-around-the-corner.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/is-economic-boom-around-the-corner.html#comments Fri, 11 Sep 2009 15:07:13 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/is-economic-boom-around-the-corner.html This September 2009 post still describes my general view on the U.S. economy. If I wrote it today, I would be more bearish medium-term because it is obvious that in 2010 fiscal and monetary policy will become less supportive of recovery. Political pressures to remove fiscal and monetary stimulus are too much to bear. As a result, I give a double dip recession slightly better odds than a multi-year recovery now. But the analysis framing my thinking is largely the same

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Related Posts No related posts. ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/is-economic-boom-around-the-corner.html/feed/ 28 Discerning a real from a fake, technical, statistical, or partial recovery http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/discerning-a-real-from-a-fake-technical-statistical-or-partial-recovery.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/discerning-a-real-from-a-fake-technical-statistical-or-partial-recovery.html#comments Tue, 18 Aug 2009 01:42:00 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/discerning-a-real-from-a-fake-technical-statistical-or-partial-recovery.html Right now many economists believe the US economy is poised for recovery.  Even I believe the economy will recover by year’s end. But for the man in the street, things hardly look like a recovery right now. Harried by falling house prices, foreclosure and lost employment, the US consumer is over-indebted and has run out

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