Credit Writedowns » Europe

Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:00:02 +0000

The year got off on a much better foot than might have been expected, at least as far as global manufacturing is concerned. So the fall in global manufacturing has flattened out, even though the bounce back has more of a dead cat look about it than anything else. As usual in recent months the report was very much a mixed bag

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Euro Dragged Lower on Greece Uncertainty

BBH — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:35:57 +0000

The dollar looks set to begin the week higher against the majors and EMs over lack of progress in Greece. European stocks are down 0.6%, with the EuroStoxx 600 trimming its 6-month high; EZ banks down 1.3%. German manufacturing orders higher in December; soft Australian retail sales support further RBA cuts

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The Unlikely Bull Market

Niels Jensen — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:30:46 +0000

This is not the time to be fully invested but neither is it the time to be side lined. We are in a nervous market where great opportunities present themselves at regular intervals. We recommend holding 25-50% in cash or cash like instruments (depending on your risk profile) which can be deployed at short notice when those opportunities arise

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Auerback: Austerity during recession is equivalent to medieval bloodletting

Edward Harrison — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 15:30:27 +0000

Here's a good video performance by Marshall Auerback on BNN's Business Day program. Marshall thinks the Greek default deal is actually a relatively good one. But sees a Portuguese default after the Greek default as a real possibility and envisions a scenario in which Portugal and Spain look to extract similar terms. Moreover, the quid pro quo for Greece is austerity - and that makes getting debt loads down harder when implemented during a downturn

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Get Out of Jail Free, European Edition

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 19:44:31 +0000

I was thinking about that last post I wrote on the euro zone and regulatory forbearance. They say a picture is worth a thousand words. So here's a picture that captures my thinking pretty well

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The European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the US Savings and Loan Crisis and Regulatory Forbearance

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 13:48:21 +0000

This is me thinking out loud about how regulatory forbearance in the S&L crisis mirrors today's policy path

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European Sovereign Supply and LTRO

Marc Chandler — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 03:00:00 +0000

The headline story in the Financial Times today is that "Banks set to double crisis loans from the ECB". The report says that "several" large banks from the euro zone told the FT that they "could double or triple" their takes at the

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Dollar Heading Lower after Constructive Outcome of EU Summit

BBH — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 12:30:06 +0000

Dollar is heading lower after the EU summit saw 25 of the 27 nations endorse the new fiscal compact. EuroStoxx 600 is nearly 1% higher as a result, banks up nearly 1.3%; MSCI Asia Pacific index up 0.7%. Japanese data showed a surge in December production; Germany’s Dec. job boost offset by retail sales

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Banking Wasn’t Meant to Be Like This

Michael Hudson — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 02:00:36 +0000

the banks now browbeat governments – not by having ready cash but by threatening to go bust and drag the economy down with them if they are not given control of public tax policy, spending and planning. The process has gone furthest in the United States. Joseph Stiglitz characterizes the Obama administration’s vast transfer of money and pubic debt to the banks as a “privatizing of gains and the socializing of losses. It is a ‘partnership’ in which one partner robs the other.” Prof. Bill Black describes banks as becoming criminogenic and innovating “control fraud.” High finance has corrupted regulatory agencies, falsified account-keeping by “mark to model” trickery, and financed the campaigns of its supporters to disable public oversight. The effect is to leave banks in control of how the economy’s allocates its credit and resources

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Greek private sector involvement: So what?

Marc Chandler — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 01:10:21 +0000

The market has been focused on the negotiations over the private sector involvement in reducing Greece’s debt burden. Yet, the PSI is so yesterday. There are many moving parts and the PSI, which has dominated the market’s attention, is being superseded by other developments, even if an agreement is still not in hand

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On how Portugal is the next Greece

Marc Chandler — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:46:06 +0000

Portugal appears to be headed down that same road. While we have warned in the past of risks that Portugal would need a second aid package, it is only since S&P joined the other major rating agencies on January 13 that more market participants have come over to this view

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Stephen Roach on US, the Fed, China, and Europe

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:00:02 +0000

Stephen Roach says the Fed is going all in in support of QE and I agree. But what else are they going to do? Look at Europe, for example. The ECB there has a hydra-headed problem with sovereigns and banks on the brink of insolvency and they too have expanded the balance sheet like mad. China faces many of the same challenges with excess credit growth and fragile financial firms in the face of asset price deflation

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Euro at the Crossroads

BBH — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 12:30:06 +0000

Dollar is broadly weaker amid hopes that Greek debt negotiations are very close to agreement. Asian stocks posted new trend highs, MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3%; Dow Jones tested highest level since 2008. EuroStoxx 600 reverses earlier losses and is currently flat on the day; Greek banking shares up nearly 6.0%

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The stark contrast between European economic policy and US economic policy

Edward Harrison — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 20:00:10 +0000

I was on CNBC yesterday ahead of Ben Bernanke's speech explaining the FOMC's recent decision to add an explicit inflation target to its decision to extend its rate easing/permanent zero policy. My conclusion: the Obama mortgage plan and Bernanke easing campaign are bullish for the US economy

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Will the ECB Take a Haircut?

Marc Chandler — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 22:30:08 +0000

The ECB's hand though could be forced if there is a credit event, a non-voluntary debt restructuring. Under such conditions, it would be more difficult to show some bond holders (ECB) preferential treatment over other holders of the same bond. This warns of potential knock-on effects of a hard restructuring

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Why I am not optimistic about Europe

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:30:01 +0000

I am not at all optimistic about the euro zone in terms of policy makers fashioning a solution to the problem. The euro leaders have the diagnosis all wrong. They keep harping on government debt and deficits as if that's the problem. And this has caused them to go all in for austerity without a backup plan. The reality is that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is not about government debt; it's about private debt and intra-euro zone imbalances

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Not Too Late for Turn Around Tuesday

Marc Chandler — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 12:30:24 +0000

Many observers will posit the euro's resilience today to the flash PMI reading for January where both the manufacturing and service sector readings were above expectations. The flash manufacturing diffusion index stood at 48.7 vs 47.3 consensus and 46.9 in December. The service sector index is at 50.5 vs 49.0 consensus and 48.3 in December. Yet in the forward looking components like new orders remain weak

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A Month In Spain That Didn’t Shake The World

Edward Hugh — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 13:00:00 +0000

Spain’s economic problems are very grave. The country is facing a decade long depression, and if enough young qualified people leave during this period then the country could enter a negative dynamic from which it will never properly recover. At the outset (2007) I and others argued for a 20% internal devaluation to shift resources over to the export sector. This did not happen, and virtually no one is interested in the idea. The main priorities are still reducing the deficit, and restructuring the financial sector without injecting any significant quantity of public money. Both these policies are contractionary in their impact. In addition the proposed labour market reform is timid, and won’t act quickly enough to stop the rot on the growth front

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Euro Races Higher

Marc Chandler — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 12:30:28 +0000

The euro is racing higher after initially gapping lower in Asia on indications that the private sector involvement in Greece had hit another stumbling block ahead of today's EU finance minister summit. It has moved above the $1.30 area in the European morning, for the first time since January 4. There are a few consideration prompting the continuation of the short-covering advance that began last week

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Greece Debt Talks Remain in Focus Ahead of the Weekend

BBH — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 12:35:04 +0000

Dollar pares back some of its recent losses ahead of the weekend; focus on Greek debt negotiations. A leaked draft of the new EZ fiscal pact contains tougher rules; growth sensitive currencies top performers. We, along with the consensus, expect the Mexican central bank to remain on hold; China’s flash

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On the IMF bailouts, Greek defaults and Canadian household debts

Edward Harrison — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 19:39:41 +0000

Below is the link to my latest appearance on BNN with Howard Green and Ryan Avent. Quick thoughts here

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Marginalization of Western Europe

Marc Chandler — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 18:35:20 +0000

US money markets have dramatically cut their exposure to European bank paper. This has been widely reported and has intensified the dollar funding needs of some European, especially French and Italian banks. When we talk about European banks needing to secure dollar funding, where are they getting those dollars

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Market Tone Remains Upbeat after Euro Zone Auctions

BBH — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 12:30:56 +0000

Dollar continues to trade on the back foot as markets maintain upbeat tone; strong EZ auction results. Soft Australian December employment reports supports Feb rate cut; BoC likely to remain on hold in H1. SELIC rates likely to fall but the government may act to stem BRL appreciation; Philippines CB cuts by 25bp

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The Importance of the Mario Brothers

Marc Chandler — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 01:00:10 +0000

They are not really brothers, but Mario Draghi and Mario Monti are countrymen and are doing a great deal to respond to the European debt crisis in ways that were unimaginable until very recently

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[PREMIUM] Where Europe is headed and what it means for investors

Edward Harrison — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 00:20:04 +0000

This is weekly number three for Credit Writedowns Gold. The topic for the week is really unavoidable because it is all anyone talks about: Europe. Let's be honest, Europe is a complete mess and I believe it will only get worse. The question for you is what will that mean for the real economy and investing. I am going to present my view here

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Some Thoughts On IMF Resources

Win Thin — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 19:30:50 +0000

We think markets are getting too bulled up on the IMF headlines today. As the saying goes, “Show me the money!” Until then, we remain skeptical that the IMF will be able to obtain the extra funding it desires. Even if the IMF does get the extra financing, will it make a material difference? IMF/EU programs for Greece, Ireland, and Portugal have not been able to halt the crisis

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Münchau: We are fighting the wrong crisis

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 16:00:11 +0000

To me this situation looks pretty hopeless frankly. Policy makers in Europe just don't get it. The best we are going to get is austerity and partial monetisation by the ECB until the union breaks or sovereign debtors default and banks are recapped. The question is why are they leading us down the abyss

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Here’s how much Austrian banks are on the sovereign debt hook for

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:45:04 +0000

According to Austrian newspaper Der Standard, Austrian banks had 18.1 billion euros of exposure to foreign sovereign debt at the end of October. The debt to which the banks were most exposed were Polish, Italian, German and Hungarian sovereign debt

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Fitch planning to downgrade six European sovereign credits

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:30:43 +0000

Swiss daily newspaper Tagesanzeiger is reporting that Fitch, the ratings agency, is about to downgrade six European countries because of the sovereign debt crisis. The paper says that six euro countries were put on ratings review in December and that all of them are likely to be downgraded

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Monti, The Full Version

Edward Hugh — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:00:22 +0000

Fortunately the ECB has deep pockets, and as I argue in this post, these will probably suffice to keep short term bond yields down to acceptable levels, and help the banks fund themselves and recapitalise. What the ECB’s LTRO’s won’t do is get new credit moving (one significant part of the initiative involves banks in the troubled periphery economies not having to write down the asset side too much too quickly, so there will be little room for “creative destruction”)

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Dollar Softer on Better Risk Backdrop

BBH — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 12:45:43 +0000

Dollar is trading on its back foot following solid EZ debt auctions; IMF seeks to increase lending capacity. The key issue today is whether North American players will sell into euro bounce; 20dma seen at $1.2875. UK Claimant count better than expected, US production data in focus; Chinese equities lower on the day

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Chart of the Day: The Ultimate European Government Debt Chart

Marc Chandler — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 17:11:27 +0000

Check out the below graphic which shows General Government Deficit/Surplus as % of GDP on the Y axis, Government Debt as % of GDP on the X axis, and the Government Debt in Euros as the size of the bubble. Pretty cool!

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Jim O’Neill: Chinese GDP numbers are “a blow for the hard landing guys”

Edward Harrison — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 16:30:25 +0000

There has been a lot of discussion about whether China's growth will slow enough to be considered a hard landing and what that would mean for the global economy and investors. Below is an account from Bloomberg featuring Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jim O'Neill that is more in the soft landing camp. O'Neill also talks about the European sovereign debt crisis and Greece

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Euro and S&P 500 Correlations Revisited

Marc Chandler — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 13:25:10 +0000

As of yesterday the 60-day correlation stands near 0.78 and the 30-day correlation has fallen from 0.81 in the middle of last month to 0.65. This gives additional evidence of some fracturing of the risk-on/risk-off rubric that has been such an important characteristic of the investment climate

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The Massendowngrade Effect

Edward Hugh — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 15:30:09 +0000

Perhaps the main point to take to heart from the events of the last week is the way the recent ECB liquidity measures have apparently been able to stabilise the debt crisis, at least for the time being, even while it is not clear that they will have the same success stabilising the deterioration in the respective real economies

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The Massendowngrade Effect originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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