Post Tagged with: "Emerging Markets"
Here’s why inverted yield curves are a leading indicator of recession
Just following up on my last post about the expectations theory of interest rates, I wanted to explain why yield curve inversion signals recession – and why it hasn’t this go round in the
More emerging markets downside ahead
Despite pockets of relative outperformance, EM currencies have fared terribly this month and bring to mind parallels with the great EM sell-off of 2008-2009. While a revisiting of the 2008-2009 lows seems too aggressive right now, we are setting our sights on the May/June 2010 levels hit when EM sold off on the first Greek blow-up
That sure looks like a W bottom on the S&P500
Not the classic trajectory and confirmation, not to mention the compressed time frame, but you’ve got to respect the price action. The macro swans are still out, so the question is are they priced? We don’t know and not willing to make a huge bet either way. The next negative headline and tape bomb will be the true test
Some predictions for the rest of the decade
Markets have been crazy this month, but rather than try to wade through all the news, much of which doesn’t seem to have much informational content, I thought I would duck out altogether and instead make a list of things I expect will happen over the next several years
The Curious Case of Benjamin Bernanke and QE3
Market action is quiet ahead of today’s Jackson Hole speech; US Q2 GDP likely to confirm slowdown. We do not expect an announcement of next round of asset purchases; yet doubt Fed will limit tools. EM asset prices are likely to continue trading as high beta irrespective of Bernanke’s speech
Is Resource Nationalism on the Rise?
According to an Ernst and Young (E&Y) report Business Risks Facing Mining and Metals 2011-2012, resource nationalism is the biggest risk companies currently face
Is the Fear Becoming Self-Fulfilling?
The dollar continues to remain firm against most of the majors; global stocks down sharp. Risk appetite took another turn for the worse; dollar bloc and scandis remain most sensitive. Outside the carnage in EM equities, funding strains are emerging in some EM countries
Emerging Markets Continue To Outperform Developed Markets
We believe that this most recent correction in EM markets will help fundamentals to matter more. The easy part of this EM rally is over, so it will become much more important for global investors to continue focusing on the fundamentals. We remain optimistic that risk assets (including EM) will continue to bounce back after the current period of turmoil ebbs
Emerging economies have not decoupled
The global crisis of 2008-09 hit emerging markets nearly as hard as it hit rich countries, which is welcome news compared to previous crises in which emerging markets often suffered much more than developed economies. This column explores emerging economies’ growth dynamics since the crisis
The Strong Case for Global Investing
If we have learned anything from the current financial mess, it’s that building wealth is dependent on rational analysis, careful decision making, and risk management. That’s why sticking close to home at a time when our markets are more uncertain than ever is a recipe for disaster and absolutely the wrong thing to do. Not only will you miss out on the world’s fastest-growing markets, but the odds are exceptionally high that you will miss as much as 50% or more in potential returns over the next decade
Crash!
In case you did not notice it, the much discussed “range” on the SP500 broke in spectacular fashion today as the short rollers bypassed the 1250 mark in the same style as the Germany panzer passed the Maginot line back in the early stages of
Brazil: capital control distortions upon distortions
It is very clear that Brazil is moving further and further away from the orthodox model due to its obsession with the strong real. While the IMF said today in its Article IV discussions with Brazil that capital controls are an “appropriate” tool, the agency also warned that they can be “distortionary.” We think that with so many regulatory measures seen over the past year, there are now distortions upon distortions. We are detecting increasing exasperation on the part of investors and banks with the arbitrary nature of these controls, along with the Law of Unintended Consequences