Credit Writedowns » Emerging Markets

[Premium] China’s growth is slowing much faster than expected

Edward Harrison — Fri, 11 May 2012 16:00:25 +0000

The latest data out of China will give those expecting a soft landing pause about China's economic situation. While inflation has come down somewhat of late, so too have industrial output and capital investment. This is creating EM feedback loops which diminish the number of equity, corporate and sovereign plays in this space. Asia in particular should be impacted

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[Premium] Is Apple worth it?

Edward Harrison — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 20:41:04 +0000

There has been a lot of chatter about Apple recently because of the monster move it has sustained in the first four months of the year. Bloomberg reports that Apple gained more than $250 billion in market share in just four months to April 9. That's more than IBM’s current value. Other impressive figures are being bandied about like: Apple is worth more than the entire retail sector combined, Apple is worth more than Microsoft, Google, Nokia, and RIMM combined, etc. But soon, growth will be all about the emerging economies

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[Premium] On Brazil’s Collapse in Growth and the New Currency Wars

Edward Harrison — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 20:25:18 +0000

This is a gold level post. I want to flag this as an issue since no one seems to be talking about it. Brazil's economy has slowed very sharply of late and along with slowdowns in India and China, it says that the global economy will get less incremental lift from emerging markers

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Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:00:02 +0000

The year got off on a much better foot than might have been expected, at least as far as global manufacturing is concerned. So the fall in global manufacturing has flattened out, even though the bounce back has more of a dead cat look about it than anything else. As usual in recent months the report was very much a mixed bag

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[Premium] Growth momentum shift to Emerging Markets continues

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:00:38 +0000

Two weeks ago I highlighted the fact that Indonesia has re-attained an investment grade rating, continuing the upward path it has been on since the Asian crisis derailed the Asian growth story 15 years ago. Indeed, we should expect emerging markets, and Asian emerging markets in particular to outperform developed economies

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Full text: Indonesia regains investment grade from second ratings agency

Edward Harrison — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 14:24:59 +0000

Just as Europe and the US are suffering massive downgrades, other countries are seeing their risk profiles improve. Indonesia is a perfect example

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Some Thoughts On IMF Resources

Win Thin — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 19:30:50 +0000

We think markets are getting too bulled up on the IMF headlines today. As the saying goes, “Show me the money!” Until then, we remain skeptical that the IMF will be able to obtain the extra funding it desires. Even if the IMF does get the extra financing, will it make a material difference? IMF/EU programs for Greece, Ireland, and Portugal have not been able to halt the crisis

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The Swiss Franc is the most overvalued currency in the world, and the Indian Rupee most undervalued

Edward Harrison — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 20:30:14 +0000

That's what the Economist's Big Mac Index tell us. According to this index, the Swiss Franc and the Norwegian Krone are both more than 60 percent overvalued compared to the US dollar. Much further down are Sweden with over 40% overvaluation and Brazil which shows more than 30%. The flip side comes with the Indian Rupee, which had been hitting record lows last year. Here, we're talking about a 60% undervaluation

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[Premium] Can Brazil’s economic boom last?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 13:15:26 +0000

I thought I would flag this video by the BBC because I think we are seeing Brazil slow along with China and India as the three largest emerging economies that people care about

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Turkey: On restoring central bank credibility and EM vulnerability

Win Thin — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 18:00:50 +0000

The Turkish central bank took a turn back to orthodox policy today despite leaving the benchmark 1-week repo rate unchanged at 5.75%. It dropped the language from several previous meetings about potential easing. The bank did hike the overnight lending rate from 9% to 12.5% and the late liquidity borrowing rate from 12% to 15.5%. These hikes are meant to tighten liquidity by raising the cost of borrowing from the central bank, but we do not think it is enough to change the outlook for the lira yet. What’s needed to restore central bank credibility is a more pronounced tightening in monetary policy, and yet policy-makers are not ready to do this due to slowdown fears

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