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	<title>Credit Writedowns &#187; Emerging Markets</title>
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	<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com</link>
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		<title>Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/02/has-global-manufacturing-steadied.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/02/has-global-manufacturing-steadied.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:00:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[international]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[manufacturing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=41793</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The year got off on a much better foot than might have been expected, at least as far as global manufacturing is concerned. So the fall in global manufacturing has flattened out, even though the bounce back has more of a dead cat look about it than anything else. As usual in recent months the report was very much a mixed bag</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/02/has-global-manufacturing-steadied.html">Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/global-manufacturing-slips-back-slightly-in-march.html" rel="bookmark">Global Manufacturing Slips Back Slightly In March</a> 4 Apr 2011<!-- (33.9)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/manufacturing-sector-demonstrates-global-recovery.html" rel="bookmark">Manufacturing Sector Demonstrates Global Recovery</a> 3 Jun 2010<!-- (31.2)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/02/global-manufacturing-continued-its-expansion-in-january.html" rel="bookmark">Global manufacturing continued its expansion In January</a> 3 Feb 2010<!-- (30.2)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>[Premium] Growth momentum shift to Emerging Markets continues</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/02/growth-momentum-shift-to-emerging-markets-continues.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/02/growth-momentum-shift-to-emerging-markets-continues.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:00:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Weekly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Indonesia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[members]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ratings agencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sovereign credit ratings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weekly]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=41788</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Two weeks ago I highlighted the fact that Indonesia has re-attained an investment grade rating, continuing the upward path it has been on since the Asian crisis derailed the Asian growth story 15 years ago. Indeed, we should expect emerging markets, and Asian emerging markets in particular to outperform developed economies</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/02/growth-momentum-shift-to-emerging-markets-continues.html">[Premium] Growth momentum shift to Emerging Markets continues</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/10/shift-to-eastern-europe-and-emerging.html" rel="bookmark">A shift to Eastern Europe and emerging markets too</a> 21 Oct 2008<!-- (50.5)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/emerging-markets-continue-to-outperform-developed-markets.html" rel="bookmark">Emerging Markets Continue To Outperform Developed Markets</a> 11 Aug 2011<!-- (35.7)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/uruguay-moodys-upgrade.html" rel="bookmark">Emerging Markets On A Tear; Uruguay Latest Upgrade by Moody’s</a> 8 Dec 2010<!-- (31.8)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Full text: Indonesia regains investment grade from second ratings agency</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/full-text-indonesia-regains-investment-grade-from-second-ratings-agency.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/full-text-indonesia-regains-investment-grade-from-second-ratings-agency.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jan 2012 14:24:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Indonesia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ratings agencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sovereign credit ratings]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=40838</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Just as Europe and the US are suffering massive downgrades, other countries are seeing their risk profiles improve. Indonesia is a perfect example</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/full-text-indonesia-regains-investment-grade-from-second-ratings-agency.html">Full text: Indonesia regains investment grade from second ratings agency</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/full-text-moodys-places-belgiums-aa1-ratings-on-review-for-possible-downgrade.html" rel="bookmark">Full text: Moody&#8217;s places Belgium&#8217;s Aa1 ratings on review for possible downgrade</a> 7 Oct 2011<!-- (45.5)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/moodys-italy-downgrade.html" rel="bookmark">Full text: Moody&#8217;s downgrades Italy&#8217;s government bond ratings to A2 with a negative outlook</a> 4 Oct 2011<!-- (44.5)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/full-text-moodys-downgrades-spains-government-bond-ratings-to-a1-negative-outlook.html" rel="bookmark">Full text: Moody&#8217;s downgrades Spain&#8217;s government bond ratings to A1, negative outlook</a> 18 Oct 2011<!-- (44.5)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Some Thoughts On IMF Resources</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/some-thoughts-on-imf-resources.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/some-thoughts-on-imf-resources.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jan 2012 19:30:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bailouts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[liquidity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sovereign debt crisis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=40782</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p> We think markets are getting too bulled up on the IMF headlines today. As the saying goes, “Show me the money!” Until then, we remain skeptical that the IMF will be able to obtain the extra funding it desires. Even if the IMF does get the extra financing, will it make a material difference? IMF/EU programs for Greece, Ireland, and Portugal have not been able to halt the crisis</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/some-thoughts-on-imf-resources.html">Some Thoughts On IMF Resources</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>

No related posts.
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		<title>The Swiss Franc is the most overvalued currency in the world, and the Indian Rupee most undervalued</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/big-mac-index-january-2012.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/big-mac-index-january-2012.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Jan 2012 20:30:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=40402</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>That's what the Economist's Big Mac Index tell us. According to this index, the Swiss Franc and the Norwegian Krone are both more than 60 percent overvalued compared to the US dollar. Much further down are Sweden with over 40% overvaluation and Brazil which shows more than 30%.

The flip side comes with the Indian Rupee, which had been hitting record lows last year. Here, we're talking about a 60% undervaluation</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/big-mac-index-january-2012.html">The Swiss Franc is the most overvalued currency in the world, and the Indian Rupee most undervalued</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/07/big-mac-index-europe-overvalued-asia-undervalued.html" rel="bookmark">Big Mac Index: Europe overvalued, Asia undervalued</a> 19 Jul 2009<!-- (40.2)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/04/what-to-make-of-swiss-franc.html" rel="bookmark">What to Make of Swiss Franc</a> 1 Apr 2010<!-- (36.3)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/the-u-s-dollar-is-now-at-parity-with-the-swiss-franc.html" rel="bookmark">The U.S. Dollar is now at parity with the Swiss Franc</a> 25 Nov 2009<!-- (35.9)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<title>Can Brazil&#8217;s economic boom last?</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/can-brazils-economic-boom-last.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/can-brazils-economic-boom-last.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jan 2012 13:15:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Weekly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=39677</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>I thought I would flag this video by the BBC because I think we are seeing Brazil slow along with China and India as the three largest emerging economies that people care about</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/01/can-brazils-economic-boom-last.html">Can Brazil&#8217;s economic boom last?</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/on-economic-boom-in-india.html" rel="bookmark">On Economic Boom in India and other links</a> 15 Aug 2010<!-- (33.1)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/global-economic-slowdown.html" rel="bookmark">Is There A Global Economic Slowdown In The Works?</a> 12 Jul 2010<!-- (15.3)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/2011-economic-themes.html" rel="bookmark">Economic Themes at the Start of 2011</a> 3 Jan 2011<!-- (15.3)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<title>Turkey: On restoring central bank credibility and EM vulnerability</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/turkey-restoring-central-bank-credibility.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/turkey-restoring-central-bank-credibility.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Oct 2011 18:00:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=34016</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Turkish central bank took a turn back to orthodox policy today despite leaving the benchmark 1-week repo rate unchanged at 5.75%.  It dropped the language from several previous meetings about potential easing.  The bank did hike the overnight lending rate from 9% to 12.5% and the late liquidity borrowing rate from 12% to 15.5%.  These hikes are meant to tighten liquidity by raising the cost of borrowing from the central bank, but we do not think it is enough to change the outlook for the lira yet.  What’s needed to restore central bank credibility is a more pronounced tightening in monetary policy, and yet policy-makers are not ready to do this due to slowdown fears</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/turkey-restoring-central-bank-credibility.html">Turkey: On restoring central bank credibility and EM vulnerability</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/03/mexico-central-bank-turns-a-bit-hawkish.html" rel="bookmark">Mexico Central Bank Turns A Bit Hawkish</a> 4 Mar 2011<!-- (31)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/12/uk-central-bank-does-not-follow-fed-to-zirp.html" rel="bookmark">U.K. central bank does not follow Fed to ZIRP</a> 17 Dec 2008<!-- (30.3)--></li>
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	</ul>
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		<title>BRICs to the rescue</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/brics-to-the-rescue.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/brics-to-the-rescue.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Oct 2011 13:00:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Pettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Political Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bailouts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sovereign debt crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=33374</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Turning to foreign sources of capital will only aggravate the problem from which Europe already suffers. Even assuming that developing countries are willing to take on risks that Europeans find prohibitive, their help will not improve prospects for Europe. On the contrary, it will hurt growth prospects and make the ultimate resolution of the debt crisis more difficult than ever. BRICs should be exporting more demand, not more capital.

It is important that the desperate short-term funding needs of certain governments do not lead to an overall worse outcome for Europe. If Europeans do not want to fund credit-impaired European governments, they should not ask foreigners to do so. Slower growth and foreign debt will not help resolve the problem of insolvency</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/brics-to-the-rescue.html">BRICs to the rescue</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/are-the-brics-decoupling.html" rel="bookmark">Are the BRICs decoupling?</a> 13 Oct 2010<!-- (25)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/do-brics-and-germans-eat-pigs.html" rel="bookmark">Do BRICs (and Germans) Eat PIGS?</a> 3 Feb 2009<!-- (24.8)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/too-big-to-rescue.html" rel="bookmark">Too big to rescue</a> 15 Feb 2009<!-- (23.7)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<title>Some Thoughts On EM FX Intervention And Vulnerability</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/some-thoughts-on-em-fx-intervention-and-vulnerability.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/some-thoughts-on-em-fx-intervention-and-vulnerability.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Oct 2011 14:44:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency intervention]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foreign reserves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=33325</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Markets have been punishing countries with the weakest fundamentals, focusing on either high inflation, large current account and budget deficits, external debt loads, or a combination of these.  These other vulnerability measures in the table also support the widely held view that Asia has the strongest fundamentals, EMEA the weakest, and Latin America somewhere in between.  But we do note that there are pockets of vulnerability in Asia (India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam) and Latin America (Argentina)</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/10/some-thoughts-on-em-fx-intervention-and-vulnerability.html">Some Thoughts On EM FX Intervention And Vulnerability</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
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<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/03/thoughts-on-g-7-statement-on-concerted-intervention-to-sell-japanese-yen.html" rel="bookmark">Thoughts on G-7 Statement on &#8216;Concerted Intervention&#8217; to Sell Japanese Yen</a> 17 Mar 2011<!-- (34.3)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/em-vulnerability-table-shows-divergences-in-fundamentals.html" rel="bookmark">EM Vulnerability Table Shows Divergences In Fundamentals</a> 28 Jan 2011<!-- (22.3)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/07/japan-swiss-currency-intervention-risks.html" rel="bookmark">How to Think about Currency Intervention Risks</a> 14 Jul 2011<!-- (21.8)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Here&#8217;s why inverted yield curves are a leading indicator of recession</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/09/inverted-yield-curves.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/09/inverted-yield-curves.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Sep 2011 13:43:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[expectations theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial repression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=32910</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Just following up on my last post about the expectations theory of interest rates, I wanted to explain why yield curve inversion signals recession – and why it hasn't this go round in the </p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/09/inverted-yield-curves.html">Here&#8217;s why inverted yield curves are a leading indicator of recession</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/06/india-brazil-inverted-yield-curves.html" rel="bookmark">India and Brazil: Inverted Yield Curves</a> 9 Jun 2011<!-- (68.5)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/03/leading-piigs-to-slaughter.html" rel="bookmark">Leading PIIGS to Slaughter</a> 10 Mar 2010<!-- (20.6)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/07/confidence-fairy-or-expectations-theory.html" rel="bookmark">Is the yield curve about confidence fairies or inflation and interest rates expectations?</a> 19 Jul 2011<!-- (19.2)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>More emerging markets downside ahead</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/09/more-emerging-markets-downside-ahead.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/09/more-emerging-markets-downside-ahead.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Sep 2011 14:45:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=32749</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Despite pockets of relative outperformance, EM currencies have fared terribly this month and bring to mind parallels with the great EM sell-off of 2008-2009.  While a revisiting of the 2008-2009 lows seems too aggressive right now, we are setting our sights on the May/June 2010 levels hit when EM sold off on the first Greek blow-up</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/09/more-emerging-markets-downside-ahead.html">More emerging markets downside ahead</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/emerging-markets-continue-to-outperform-developed-markets.html" rel="bookmark">Emerging Markets Continue To Outperform Developed Markets</a> 11 Aug 2011<!-- (35.8)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/mobius-still-bullish-on-emerging-markets.html" rel="bookmark">Mobius: Still bullish on Emerging Markets</a> 23 Sep 2009<!-- (31.8)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/pimco-emerging-markets-will-outperform.html" rel="bookmark">Pimco: Emerging Markets Will Outperform</a> 16 Dec 2010<!-- (31.8)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<title>That sure looks like a W bottom on the S&amp;P500</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/sp500-w-bottom.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/sp500-w-bottom.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Aug 2011 11:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Global Macro Monitor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bear market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technical analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=31795</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Not the classic trajectory and confirmation, not to mention the compressed time frame, but you’ve got to respect the price action.  The macro swans are still out, so the question is are they priced?   We don’t know and not willing to make a huge bet either way.  The next negative headline and tape bomb will be the true test</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/sp500-w-bottom.html">That sure looks like a W bottom on the S&amp;P500</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/barton-biggs-on-panic-selling.html" rel="bookmark">Barton Biggs: &#8220;I was wrong yesterday in the thinking we were in the process of making a bottom&#8221;</a> 4 Aug 2011<!-- (21.6)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/kass-stocks-have-hit-bottom-for-year-this-must-be-the-place.html" rel="bookmark">Kass: Stocks Have Hit Bottom For Year; This Must Be The Place</a> 8 Jul 2010<!-- (21.2)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/10/are-markets-reaching-bottom.html" rel="bookmark">Are the markets reaching the bottom?</a> 10 Oct 2008<!-- (20.6)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<title>Some predictions for the rest of the decade</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/michael-pettis-predictions.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/michael-pettis-predictions.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Aug 2011 22:30:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Pettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[capital investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[decoupling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deleveraging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eurozone breakup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial history]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[globalisation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jobs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[liquidity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[malinvestment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[privatisation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protectionism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=31753</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Markets have been crazy this month, but rather than try to wade through all the news, much of which doesn’t seem to have much informational content, I thought I would duck out altogether and instead make a list of things I expect will happen over the next several years</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/michael-pettis-predictions.html">Some predictions for the rest of the decade</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/forexblog-qa-on-macroeonomics-fx-and-all-the-rest-of-it.html" rel="bookmark">Forexblog &#8211; Q&amp;A on Macroeonomics, FX and all the Rest of It</a> 10 Jun 2010<!-- (24.8)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/10/another-look-at-my-2008-predictions.html" rel="bookmark">Another look at my 2008 predictions</a> 8 Oct 2008<!-- (24.7)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/china-reflation-play-spells-trouble-for-rest-of-the-world.html" rel="bookmark">China: reflation play spells trouble for rest of the world</a> 3 Nov 2009<!-- (23.8)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<title>The Curious Case of Benjamin Bernanke and QE3</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/the-curious-case-of-benjamin-bernanke-and-qe3.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/the-curious-case-of-benjamin-bernanke-and-qe3.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Aug 2011 11:30:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Chandler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quantitative easing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=31712</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Market action is quiet ahead of today’s Jackson Hole speech;  US Q2 GDP likely to confirm slowdown. We do not expect an announcement of next round of asset purchases; yet doubt Fed will limit tools. EM asset prices are likely to continue trading as high beta irrespective of Bernanke’s speech</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/the-curious-case-of-benjamin-bernanke-and-qe3.html">The Curious Case of Benjamin Bernanke and QE3</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/meet-the-press-mr-bernanke.html" rel="bookmark">Meet the Press, Mr. Bernanke</a> 27 Apr 2011<!-- (20.9)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/sell-bernanke-dollar-buy-gold-silver.html" rel="bookmark">Sell Bernanke and the U.S. dollar; Buy gold and silver</a> 13 Dec 2010<!-- (19.5)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/11/just-what-is-bernanke-up-to.html" rel="bookmark">Just What is Bernanke Up To?</a> 11 Nov 2010<!-- (19.2)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Is Resource Nationalism on the Rise?</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/is-resource-nationalism-on-the-rise.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/is-resource-nationalism-on-the-rise.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Aug 2011 08:00:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Casey Research</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Political Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nationalism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=31625</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>According to an Ernst and Young (E&#038;Y) report Business Risks Facing Mining and Metals 2011-2012, resource nationalism is the biggest risk companies currently face</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/is-resource-nationalism-on-the-rise.html">Is Resource Nationalism on the Rise?</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
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		<title>Is the Fear Becoming Self-Fulfilling?</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/is-the-fear-becoming-self-fulfilling.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/is-the-fear-becoming-self-fulfilling.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Aug 2011 11:30:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marc Chandler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stocks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=31463</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The dollar continues to remain firm against most of the majors; global stocks down sharp. Risk appetite took another turn for the worse; dollar bloc and scandis remain most sensitive. Outside the carnage in EM equities, funding strains are emerging in some EM countries</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
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<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/is-the-fear-becoming-self-fulfilling.html">Is the Fear Becoming Self-Fulfilling?</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/04/links-2010-04-28-greece-goldman-greed-and-fear.html" rel="bookmark">Links: 2010-04-28 Greece Goldman Greed (and Fear)</a> 28 Apr 2010<!-- (23)--></li>
	</ul>
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		<title>Emerging Markets Continue To Outperform Developed Markets</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/emerging-markets-continue-to-outperform-developed-markets.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/emerging-markets-continue-to-outperform-developed-markets.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2011 21:30:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=31043</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>We believe that this most recent correction in EM markets will help fundamentals to matter more. The easy part of this EM rally is over, so it will become much more important for global investors to continue focusing on the fundamentals. We remain optimistic that risk assets (including EM) will continue to bounce back after the current period of turmoil ebbs</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/emerging-markets-continue-to-outperform-developed-markets.html">Emerging Markets Continue To Outperform Developed Markets</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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No related posts.
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		<title>Emerging economies have not decoupled</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/emerging-market-resilience.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/emerging-market-resilience.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Aug 2011 14:24:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Guest Author</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=31026</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The global crisis of 2008-09 hit emerging markets nearly as hard as it hit rich countries, which is welcome news compared to previous crises in which emerging markets often suffered much more than developed economies. This column explores emerging economies' growth dynamics since the crisis</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/emerging-market-resilience.html">Emerging economies have not decoupled</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/emerging-markets-crisis.html" rel="bookmark">The emerging markets crisis</a> 11 Nov 2008<!-- (18.9)--></li>
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		<title>The Strong Case for Global Investing</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/case-for-global-investing.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/case-for-global-investing.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Aug 2011 11:30:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Guest Author</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[international]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stocks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=30881</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>If we have learned anything from the current financial mess, it’s that building wealth is dependent on rational analysis, careful decision making, and risk management. That’s why sticking close to home at a time when our markets are more uncertain than ever is a recipe for disaster and absolutely the wrong thing to do. Not only will you miss out on the world’s fastest-growing markets, but the odds are exceptionally high that you will miss as much as 50% or more in potential returns over the next decade</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/case-for-global-investing.html">The Strong Case for Global Investing</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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	</ul>
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		<title>Crash!</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/crash.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/crash.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Aug 2011 20:45:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Claus Vistesen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bear market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[double dip]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ECB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[liquidity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[savings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stocks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=30788</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>In case you did not notice it, the much discussed "range" on the SP500 broke in spectacular fashion today as the short rollers bypassed the 1250 mark in the same style as the Germany panzer passed the Maginot line back in the early stages of </p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/crash.html">Crash!</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/06/could-central-banks-cause-crash.html" rel="bookmark">Could central banks cause a crash?</a> 18 Jun 2008<!-- (21.4)--></li>
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	</ul>
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		<title>Brazil: capital control distortions upon distortions</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/brazil-further-capital-controls.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/brazil-further-capital-controls.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Aug 2011 18:50:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[capital controls]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=30774</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>It is very clear that Brazil is moving further and further away from the orthodox model due to its obsession with the strong real. While the IMF said today in its Article IV discussions with Brazil that capital controls are an “appropriate” tool, the agency also warned that they can be “distortionary.” We think that with so many regulatory measures seen over the past year, there are now distortions upon distortions. We are detecting increasing exasperation on the part of investors and banks with the arbitrary nature of these controls, along with the Law of Unintended Consequences</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
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<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/brazil-further-capital-controls.html">Brazil: capital control distortions upon distortions</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/brazil-raises-iof-tax-on-fixed-income-again-warns-of-more-capital-controls.html" rel="bookmark">Brazil Raises IOF Tax On Fixed Income Again, Warns Of More Capital Controls</a> 18 Oct 2010<!-- (30.4)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/hard-landing-possible-as-chinese-inflation-spirals-out-of-control.html" rel="bookmark">Hard landing possible as Chinese inflation spirals &#8216;out of control&#8217;</a> 11 Apr 2011<!-- (21.1)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/more-emerging-markets-countries-mulling-capital-controls.html" rel="bookmark">More Emerging Markets Countries Mulling Capital Controls</a> 21 Oct 2010<!-- (19.1)--></li>
	</ul>
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		<title>Staring into the eye of recession</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/staring-into-the-eye-of-recession.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/staring-into-the-eye-of-recession.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 12:23:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[austerity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[debt ceiling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[double dip]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jobs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=30549</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>After the US GDP revisions we saw on Friday, it is clear that the US economy is at stall speed. But globally, we are seeing a slowdown in Europe and emerging markets too, especially China. And the fact is monetary and fiscal policy are tightening in all three areas as well. To me, this speaks to a sharp global growth slowdown, which means Europe and the US will be “staring into the eye of recession” as Andy Lees entitled his note on which this post is based</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
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<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/08/staring-into-the-eye-of-recession.html">Staring into the eye of recession</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/06/another-perfect-recession-indicator.html" rel="bookmark">Another Perfect Recession Indicator</a> 8 Jun 2008<!-- (15.9)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/chart-of-day-unemployment-as-recession.html" rel="bookmark">Chart of the day: unemployment as a recession indicator</a> 12 Sep 2008<!-- (15.8)--></li>
	</ul>
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		<title>India and Brazil: Inverted Yield Curves</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/06/india-brazil-inverted-yield-curves.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/06/india-brazil-inverted-yield-curves.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jun 2011 12:41:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Lees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Korea]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=28623</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>I am concerned that the emerging markets have overheated and are now reversing direction quickly. Policy rates are still low when adjusted for inflation. But, given the economic weakness now manifest across North America and Europe, the risk is clearly to the downside for now</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/06/india-brazil-inverted-yield-curves.html">India and Brazil: Inverted Yield Curves</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/india-brazil-mexico-update.html" rel="bookmark">India, Brazil, Mexico Update</a> 24 Sep 2010<!-- (33.4)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/india-china.html" rel="bookmark">India and China: Will the Tortoise May Pass the Hare?</a> 7 Dec 2010<!-- (20.4)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/india-booms.html" rel="bookmark">India Booms</a> 31 Aug 2010<!-- (20)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Populist Humala Wins Election, Negative For Peruvian Markets</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/06/populist-humala-wins-election.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/06/populist-humala-wins-election.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jun 2011 00:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Political Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peru]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=28547</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Investors became comfortable with Lula's economic team, his cabinet, and his general attitudes towards markets.  The bottom line was that Lula inherited a strong, vibrant economy and was smart enough not to mess with success.  Will Humala learn that lesson too</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/06/populist-humala-wins-election.html">Populist Humala Wins Election, Negative For Peruvian Markets</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
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	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>6</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Brazil Resorts To Protectionism</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/05/brazil-resorts-to-protectionism.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/05/brazil-resorts-to-protectionism.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 May 2011 16:15:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Political Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[manufacturing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=28158</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Brazil is reportedly imposing trade barriers on auto parts imports and a variety of other products. Imports of 27 products will reportedly have tighter licensing requirements that can take up to 60 days to approve. These are called non-tariff barriers to trade (NTBs) in trade theory. This development is noteworthy, as protectionist policies were not seen during the depths of the financial crisis. We need to see more details, but a rise in protectionism is never good. It would appear that a strong real is feeding into cheaper imports which are putting domestic Brazilian firms under pressure</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/05/brazil-resorts-to-protectionism.html">Brazil Resorts To Protectionism</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/09/the-protectionism-bogeyman.html" rel="bookmark">The protectionism bogeyman</a> 24 Sep 2009<!-- (21.5)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/more-on-china-trade-and-protectionism.html" rel="bookmark">More on China, Trade and Protectionism</a> 11 Jun 2010<!-- (21.2)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/on-china-protectionism-and-trade-and-other-links.html" rel="bookmark">On China, Protectionism and Trade and Other Links</a> 11 Jun 2010<!-- (21)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Speculators at risk as IEA confirms demand destruction has set in</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/05/speculators-at-risk-as-iea-confirms-demand-destruction-has-set-in.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/05/speculators-at-risk-as-iea-confirms-demand-destruction-has-set-in.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 May 2011 13:48:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Lees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demand destruction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[developed markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/05/speculators-at-risk-as-iea-confirms-demand-destruction-has-set-in.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>A fall in commodity prices increases the potential for financial market disruption and non-performing loan problems in China</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
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<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/05/speculators-at-risk-as-iea-confirms-demand-destruction-has-set-in.html">Speculators at risk as IEA confirms demand destruction has set in</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
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	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Fundamental Bullish Commodities Story Still Intact</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/05/fundamental-bullish-commodities-story-still-intact.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/05/fundamental-bullish-commodities-story-still-intact.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2011 13:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Lees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demand destruction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[developed markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[peak resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[speculation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=28099</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>You have strong growth in emerging markets offset by weaker growth in the developed economies. Who wins this battle? For now, EM is winning and that is bullish for commodities over the near-term</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/05/fundamental-bullish-commodities-story-still-intact.html">Fundamental Bullish Commodities Story Still Intact</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/jim-rogers-is-still-bullish-on-commodities.html" rel="bookmark">Jim Rogers is still bullish on commodities</a> 15 Jan 2010<!-- (36.2)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/the-commodities-con.html" rel="bookmark">The Commodities Con</a> 5 May 2010<!-- (20.9)--></li>
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	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Win Thin: Bernanke is giving a green light to the risk-on trade</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/bernanke-giving-green-light-to-risk.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/bernanke-giving-green-light-to-risk.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Apr 2011 01:00:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eurozone periphery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sovereign debt crisis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=27856</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Win Thin of Brown Brothers Harriman was on Bloomberg talking to Tom Keene and Michael Cloherty, head of U.S. rates strategy for fixed income and currencies at RBC Capital Markets, about the global markets for a good fifteen minutes today. Just as I recently posited, Win sees the Bernanke press conference giving a green light to speculators running risk-on dollar-short trades as well. You may think these markets are overvalued. But Bernanke is telling us that zero rates will prevail. That means risk-on. And while they may not be trying to debase the dollar, a byproduct of low rates in an environment where rates are increasing elsewhere is a low dollar. Much more in the video</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/bernanke-giving-green-light-to-risk.html">Win Thin: Bernanke is giving a green light to the risk-on trade</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/win-thin-more-on-brazil-and-korea-currency-controls.html" rel="bookmark">Win Thin: More On Brazil And Korea Currency Controls</a> 5 Oct 2010<!-- (22.8)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/dollar-softens-modestly-in-thin-holiday-trading.html" rel="bookmark">Dollar Softens Modestly In Thin Holiday Trading</a> 31 May 2010<!-- (22.5)--></li>
	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>More on the currency wars and negative real rates</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/more-on-the-currency-wars-and-negative-real-rates.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/more-on-the-currency-wars-and-negative-real-rates.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Apr 2011 20:22:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill Gross]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial repression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeffrey Gundlach]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=27816</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Now that the Fed has confirmed it won't raise rates and the dollar is dropping, for me it means that negative real rates will continue and that the currency wars are back on. I have comments on what negative real rates mean for investors. I also talk about my suspicion that this time around in the currency wars, China will get the stick instead of the US because of the Dollar peg</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/more-on-the-currency-wars-and-negative-real-rates.html">More on the currency wars and negative real rates</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<title>Emerging Markets: Turkey Currency Outlook Deteriorates As Inflation Forecasts Raised</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/turkey-outlook-deteriorates.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/turkey-outlook-deteriorates.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Apr 2011 18:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=27811</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Turkish lira is under pressure today, and is also due to some market concerns with central bank credibility. Like in Brazil, Turkey macroprudential policies simply have not worked</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
<br >Also read our <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/news-feed/">News Feed</a> for the latest financial and economic news.
<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/turkey-outlook-deteriorates.html">Emerging Markets: Turkey Currency Outlook Deteriorates As Inflation Forecasts Raised</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
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	</ul>
]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>EM Policy-Makers Are Finally Starting To &#8216;Get It&#8217;</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/em-policy-makers-are-finally-starting-to-get-it.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/em-policy-makers-are-finally-starting-to-get-it.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Apr 2011 22:00:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=27675</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>
<p>Developments in EM over the past couple of weeks suggest to us that EM policy-makers are finally starting to “get it” with regards to inflation and a strong currency. This is a welcome, if somewhat tardy shift. In recent months, EM policy-makers were simply trying to do too many things with not enough policy tools, and so we are heartened by what appears to be baby steps towards an orthodox response to rising inflation; namely, hiking rates and accepting a stronger currency. Many have tried to rely more on so-called macroprudential policies in order to avoid the rate hike/strong currency path, but these are generally been recognized to be failing.</p</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
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<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/em-policy-makers-are-finally-starting-to-get-it.html">EM Policy-Makers Are Finally Starting To &#8216;Get It&#8217;</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
<br /> <br />Links: <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/feed">RSS</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/hfF3U">Daily</a> - <a href="http://eepurl.com/eklTA">Weekly</a> - <a href="http://twitter.com/edwardnh">Twitter</a> - <a href="http://www.facebook.com/creditwritedowns">Facebook</a> - <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/contact">Contact</a>
<br /><small>Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1</small></p><strong>Related Posts</strong>
<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/asian-policy-makers-have-too-many-targets.html" rel="bookmark">Asian Policy-Makers Face Dilemma Of Too Many Targets</a> 5 Jan 2011<!-- (38.4)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/policy-uncertainty-turkish-lira.html" rel="bookmark">Policy Uncertainty To Weigh On Turkish Lira</a> 13 Dec 2010<!-- (16.5)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/02/march-madness.html" rel="bookmark">March Madness: Policy Risks for Global Investors</a> 27 Feb 2011<!-- (16.4)--></li>
	</ul>
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		<title>Diverging Inflation Paths In Brazil And Mexico</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/diverging-inflation-paths-in-brazil-and-mexico.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/diverging-inflation-paths-in-brazil-and-mexico.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Apr 2011 20:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=27640</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>We are seeing divergent inflation paths in Brazil and Mexico, and today’s mid-April data underscored this point</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
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<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/diverging-inflation-paths-in-brazil-and-mexico.html">Diverging Inflation Paths In Brazil And Mexico</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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<ul>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/india-brazil-mexico-update.html" rel="bookmark">India, Brazil, Mexico Update</a> 24 Sep 2010<!-- (33.8)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/peru-elections-brazil-chile-inflation.html" rel="bookmark">Strongly Rising Inflation in Brazil and Chile, Elections in Peru</a> 11 Apr 2011<!-- (31)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/brazil-inflation-signals-higher-interest-rates.html" rel="bookmark">Brazil Inflation Report Signals Rate Hike In January</a> 22 Dec 2010<!-- (27)--></li>
	</ul>
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		<title>Gold at record high, silver at 31-year high as inflation and negative real yields bite</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/gold-silver-inflation.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/gold-silver-inflation.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Apr 2011 14:21:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Harrison</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chile]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[developed markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[expectations theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial repression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[silver]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=27572</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The easy stance of developed economy central banks is driving money into emerging markets and fostering the accommodative stance of those central banks, fearful of more hot money flows or currency appreciation. Easy money in the face of rising inflation is at the heart of the now subdued currency wars. This battle has moved to inflation and potentially to demand destruction. That is why gold and silver are rising so prodigiously. Unless central banks demonstrate that they have the stomach for counteracting this inflation, more money will continue to flow to precious metals</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
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<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/gold-silver-inflation.html">Gold at record high, silver at 31-year high as inflation and negative real yields bite</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/03/bill-gross-on-fiscal-profligacy-and-dumping-the-negative-real-yields-of-treasuries.html" rel="bookmark">Bill Gross on fiscal profligacy and dumping the negative real yields of treasuries</a> 31 Mar 2011<!-- (45.9)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/08/us-inflation-at-17-year-high.html" rel="bookmark">US inflation at 17 year high</a> 14 Aug 2008<!-- (40.5)--></li>
		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/sell-bernanke-dollar-buy-gold-silver.html" rel="bookmark">Sell Bernanke and the U.S. dollar; Buy gold and silver</a> 13 Dec 2010<!-- (33.9)--></li>
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		<title>Strongly Rising Inflation in Brazil and Chile, Elections in Peru</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/peru-elections-brazil-chile-inflation.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/peru-elections-brazil-chile-inflation.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 16:30:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Win Thin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chile]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peru]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=27481</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>In Peru, populist candidate Ollanta Humala won the most votes in the weekend presidential vote in Peru, winning 29.3% so far with 75% of the ballots counted. By falling far short of the 50% + 1 needed to win, a second round vote will be held in June and it looks like Humala will run against Keiko Fujimori, who has 22.9% of the vote.

In Brazil, the weekly central bank survey shows inflation expectations worsening. Year-end IPCA inflation is now expected at 6.26% vs. 6.02% last week. It is clear to us that macroprudential measures are not working, and that the central bank will need to keep hiking the SELIC rate. Expectations should move higher as inflation data deteriorates. Market is looking for a 50 bp hike at the April 19/20 meeting, and we think there is a good chance that the tightening cycle will continue at the June 7/8 meeting as well.

Meanwhile in Chile, USD/CLP remains within striking distance of the 465 level that triggered FX intervention back in early January. The Chile central bank will meet tomorrow and is expected to hike 50 bp to 4.5%, which would pull it even with Mexico in terms of rates. The economic outlook remains strong, and further tightening is expected into next year. The central bank’s most recent inflation report showed a material deterioration of the inflation outlook</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
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<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/peru-elections-brazil-chile-inflation.html">Strongly Rising Inflation in Brazil and Chile, Elections in Peru</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/latam-update-abc-argentina-brazil-chile.html" rel="bookmark">Latam Update: ABC&#8211;Argentina, Brazil, Chile</a> 11 Aug 2010<!-- (38)--></li>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/brazil-inflation-signals-higher-interest-rates.html" rel="bookmark">Brazil Inflation Report Signals Rate Hike In January</a> 22 Dec 2010<!-- (28)--></li>
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		<title>The Curve in the Road</title>
		<link>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/the-curve-in-the-road.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/the-curve-in-the-road.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Apr 2011 13:18:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Guest Author</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alan Greenspan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[compensation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[excess reserves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[expectations theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[manufacturing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=27445</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Bernanke (and Dudley) have been testifying that inflation is not an issue. But what signs and maps are they reading? Bernanke specifically invokes inflation expectations as being most important, and he contends they are low. They both note that the “output gap” (more on it later) is still high and that wage inflation is unlikely in a period of high unemployment. But, as Greenspan recently said, “The problem is, none of these indicators will tell you when inflation is about to take hold.”

The Economic Cycle Research Institute wrote what I think is a very powerful editorial about the problem with Fed policy and inflation. I will quote some of the more important paragraphs:

“Central bankers need to stop clinging to policy orthodoxy and pay attention to proven cyclical leading inflation indicators that can actually tell them when inflation is about to take hold. Otherwise, if a well-meaning Fed stimulates the economy for too long, it will let inflation and/or asset prices get out of control, fostering boom-bust cycles that keep long-term unemployment at elevated readings as each short boom ends with a bust that pushes the jobless rate back up.”</p><p><hr />Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. <a href="https://www.creditwritedowns.com/members/">Sign up today</a> for monthly or yearly subscriptions. 
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<br ><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/the-curve-in-the-road.html">The Curve in the Road</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com">Credit Writedowns</a>
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		<li><a href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/more-curve-flattening-in-china-as-manufacturing-weakens.html" rel="bookmark">More curve flattening in China as manufacturing weakens</a> 1 Jun 2010<!-- (21)--></li>
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