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The forecast was for 10.1% unemployment and a gain of +15,000 jobs according to Market Watch, but 10.0% unemployment and a flat non-farm payroll number according to Bloomberg. As a reminder, ADP reported the private sector shed 84,000 jobs, the smallest job loss since March 2008. So, the labor market is definitely improving.
But, in [...]

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Unadjusted jobless claims after the holiday season are always monstrous because of seasonality. Last week 645,571 people filed initial claims for unemployment insurance in the United States.  That is down from the 731,958 who filed at this time last year. Looking at the seasonally adjusted numbers, claims rose from to 434,000 last week from 433,000 [...]

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The December 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business was released earlier today showing a reading of 55.9, the highest in nearly four years. This is the most recent of the many indicators demonstrating that the U.S. economy is in a cyclical recovery. Of note, inventories are now pointing to recovery as well. The inventories index [...]

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Initial jobless claims of 432,000 for the week ended 26 Dec 2009 were the lowest since July 2008. The 4-week average is now 460,250, the lowest since September 2008. If you look at the following two graphs, you can see that initial claims are plummeting.

The second chart shows that the change in initial [...]

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From this past week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report released today:
In the week ending Dec. 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 452,000, a decrease of 28,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 480,000. The 4-week moving average was 465,250, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of [...]

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Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 12th came in at a seasonally-adjusted (SA) 480,000, which is a rise of 7,000 from the previous week.  This brings the 4-week SA average down to 467,500, the lowest in 15-months.  Clearly layoffs have receded.  However, hiring has yet to begin in earnest, so the employment situation [...]

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The weekly jobless claims figure came in at 474,000. That is up 17,000 from the previous week. Revisions of the two prior weeks put the net surge at 18,000. The 4-week average is 473,750. All numbers are seasonally-adjusted.
This latest data is the highest seasonal adjustment we have seen since the stock market improved and since [...]

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A friend Scott caught this article on Bloomberg about the latest economic figures out of Japan:
Japan’s economy expanded less than a third of the pace initially reported in the three months to September as companies slashed spending.
Gross domestic product rose at an annual 1.3 percent pace, slower than the 4.8 percent reported in preliminary figures [...]

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I happen to think we are in (an unsustainable) recovery. And that means that the labour market, while poor is improving.  This is why my headline from the latest employment figures was “Unemployment rate recedes as worst of this downturn is over.”
Nevertheless, we shouldn’t see the decline as any more than a one-off for now. [...]

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The Census Bureau came out this morning with a report on “Manufacturer’s Shipments, Inventories and Orders” for October. The report was bullish as it showed new orders for manufactured goods rising for the sixth time in seven months. But, more importantly, it also showed that manufacturers are adding inventory which means that production is now [...]