Post Tagged with: "Economy"
Charts of the Day: U.S. Unemployment above 10%, Underemployment near 20%
With the jobs numbers coming out tomorrow, it bears noting that the official U.S. data have been marred by low labour participation rates. The reality is that while the jobs picture is improved, many of the long-time unemployed have dropped out of the labour force and are not being counted as unemployed as a result.
Russia Widens RUB Trading Band, Signaling Comfort With Further Strength
By Win Thin Russia central bank First Deputy Chairman Ulyukayev confirmed that it has widened the so-called “floating corridor” for the ruble basket to 32.45-37.45 vs. 32.95-36.95. The band is now 5 rubles wide, and continues a slow and steady process of liberalizing the ruble exchange rate regime. Back in October 2010, it eliminated the
Case-Shiller: US House Prices Are Closing In On the Post-Bubble Trough
The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices shows that house prices in the U.S. continue to decline this winter. For data through December 2010, the broad Composite-20 index is down 2.4% compared to December 2009. The Composite-10 index is down 1.2% in that time frame. While these numbers were in line with expectations, they point to
Why are We ‘Irrational’: The Path from Neoclassical to Behavioral Economics 2.0
By Rick Bookstaber A few months ago I discussed the failing of econophysics, and more generally, the economic paradigm that treats people like computers and views economic dynamics like physics. The natural follow up question is, “What can you say that is constructive?” The answer is an emerging approach to behavioral economics. Over the past
Nationwide: House pries down again in the UK in January
The latest Nationwide House Price Index update is out showing a decline of 0.1% in January 2011. That brings house prices down 1.1% since this time last year. Nationwide has a new Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, who writes: "The property market entered 2011 with a whimper rather than a bang, with house prices edging down
Asia Economic and Currency Snapshot For Feb 2011
By Win Thin and his Emerging Markets Strategy Team at Brown Brothers Harriman India: Economic and Currency Snapshot Macroeconomic Update: GDP rose 8.9% y/y in both Q2 and Q3, and is expected to grow about 9% in 2010 and 8.5% in 2011. Industrial production grew by only 2.7% y/y in November vs. 11.3% y/y in
Back to the global imbalances norm
Here is my mantra regarding so-called ‘unsustainable’ debt levels. I feel strongly about this topic so I’ll repeat it and show you a few statistics on consumer debt from the recent US government data: [P]oor quality growth can continue for very long indeed. And it is this fact which allows the narrative of easy money
Case-Shiller numbers confirm housing double dip
The Case-Shiller numbers this morning were lower than expected and confirm a housing double dip which began in July when both the Composite-10 and Composite-20 numbers peaked. The Composite-10 is down 0.5% y-o-y and the Composite-20 is down 1.6% y-o-y. While housing is expected to be a drag on the economy over the near term,
Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011
I have just finished reviewing Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010. Now, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish again. Enjoy. -Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of The Ten Surprises for 2011. This is the 26th year Byron has given his predictions
Economic Themes at the Start of 2011
BBH’s currency strategy team reviews the major economic issues in the four investing regions of note: the US, Europe, China and other Emerging Markets. In the US growth is accelerating. In Europe, the economy struggles with a sovereign debt crisis. In China growth is moderating. And in the Emerging markets, officials wrestle with capital inflows from abroad
Chart of the Day: Market Share of GDP and Foreign Exchange Reserves
Whether or not we are witnessing the end of the debate in Europe or simply another milestone on the way to The United States of Europe is a question for a dissertation, not a blog. In the meantime, these questions lead us to consider the current global monetary standing of “the member states whose currency is the dollar.” Below is the shrinking market share of the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency since 1999…and the growth of the euro. And below is the United States’ shrinking market share of global GDP (in constant dollars) currency since 1969…and the growth of China and India. These are all changes that have occurred along the sweep of economic history, and for relatively short intervals at that. Far be it for us to draw conclusions on such large matters with such little data, but here are two: historical secular trends are hard to stop, and one of the greatest global economic advantages is scale
Fedex disappoints; should we care?
Fedex is often seen as a general proxy for US economic activity in the way that rail or freight traffic or cargo shipments are. They ship to such a wide variety of companies and individuals that they have taken on a bellwether status. Unfortunately, they released some disappointing earnings today. Given the recent spate of