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I am in the process of crunching the numbers from today’s report on U.S. personal income and outlays. The monthly data came out at 8:30 EST this morning but I think the quarterly data is more interesting because it goes back to 1947, where the monthly data only goes back to 1959. Here’s a chart [...]
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Chart of the day: U.S. savings rate over last 60 years
Feb
Weaker eurozone manufacturers losing competitiveness
Feb
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The eurozone’s manufacturing sector is growing at its fastest pace in two years. However, there are dramatic differences in how manufacturing is faring within the eurozone which point to the currency as a major source for the loss of competitiveness in Greece, Spain and Ireland.
The eurozone manufacturing purchasing manager’s index came in at 52.4 for [...]
GDP up 5.7%, fastest rate since 2003
Jan
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The BEA says:
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by [...]
Jobless claims 470,000, average rises for 2nd week
Jan
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This is the second week running that we have seen higher jobless claims. Two weeks ago the 4-week average seasonally adjusted number was 440,750. This was a number reflective of steadily declining claims in the period leading up to the holiday season and New Year. However, the last two weeks have seen a marked rise [...]
Is the recession dating committee preparing for a double dip?
Jan
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The Big Picture has picked up on what appears to be an interesting development over at the NBER’s site. It seems like they are hedging there bets on a possible double dip recession beginning in late 2010 or 2011.
As you may know, the NBER is the organization which is responsible for the monthly dating of [...]
Initial jobless claims rise dramatically to 482,000
Jan
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From the U.S. Department of Labor:
In the week ending Jan. 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 482,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 446,000. The 4-week moving average was 448,250, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 441,250.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR [...]
Readers of this blog expect the recession to last redux
Jan
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Back in June I asked you all “When will the U.S. economy recover?.” The response was basically either “there will be no recovery to speak of” or “recovery is a long way off.” The poll results are embedded below.
I asked a similar question as the new year began since arguably a ‘technical recovery’ is underway. [...]
Average jobless claims continue down but data mask problems
Jan
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From the U.S. Department of Labor:
In the week ending Jan. 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 444,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 433,000. The 4-week moving average was 440,750, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 449,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured [...]
Graphic: Unemployment – State by State
Jan
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This comes from Kiplinger (click to enlarge). Not only does this graphic break down where the trouble spots are for jobs today, it gives you a historical perspective as well. It looks like the Southeastern seaboard and the west coast are feeling the most pain relative to past recessions.
Also see What You Need to Know [...]
Household survey charts reveal this is no garden variety downturn
Jan
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Markets were disappointed by today’s unemployment data because they reveal how difficult it has been for the employment situation to improve in a meaningful way. The employment market is improving, just not as much as one would hope. Below are four charts derived from the household survey data that tell the story, but also point [...]
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- “I spent most of my professional life in this building. Watching the politics of the things we did in the past financial crises in Mexico and Asia had a powerful effect on me. The surveys were 9-to-1 against almost everything that helped contain the damage. And I watched exceptionally capable people just get killed in the court of public opinion as they defended those policies on the Hill. This is a necessary part of the office, certainly in financial crises. I think this really says something important about the president, not about me. The test is whether you have people willing to do the things that are deeply unpopular, deeply hard to understand, knowing that they\\\'re necessary to do and better than the alternatives. We\\\'ll be judged on how we dealt with the things that were broken in the country. We broke the back of the worst financial panic in three generations, more effectively and at a much lower cost than I think anybody thought was possible.”
-- Tim Geithner, Dec 2009
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Is the recession dating committee preparing for a double dip? (4 votes)
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