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A lot of people are questioning the unemployment rate of 9.7% in the face of a –20,000 non-farm payroll print.  How could we be losing jobs and have the unemployment rate drop? It would seem people are dropping out of the labor force.
However, I have now parsed the household survey data and most of [...]

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Those are the numbers. But this month’s unemployment rate and the non-farm payrolls number are less important this go round. The devil is in the details here because we have some major benchmark revisions and that means changes to historical data.  Bloomberg has a report out which says the government’s own statisticians have anticipated a [...]

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According to data released today by the Halifax, UK house prices are now up almost 10% above the levels of just 9 months ago.  Low interest rates have certainly been a big factor in the rise, with Nationwide’s figure showing an even steeper rise since April, as the chart from BBC News below attests.
 

When [...]

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This morning, I left just in time to see the U.S. Department of Labor’s jobless claims numbers for the preceding week.  They were not good.  Initial claims hit 480,000 for the week ending 30 Jan 2010, pushing the 4-week average up to 468,750. 

 
As a result of this news and sovereign debt issues in [...]

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This map comes via Gallup. The jobs picture is worst in the west and best in the south.

See Gallup’s analysis of the data at the link below:
Source
In January, Most Job Creation in U.S. South and East – Gallup

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This is a post which was originally published at A Fistful of Euros.
The global manufacturing expansion continued to gather momentum in January. Coming in at 56.1, up from 54.6 in December, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered its highest reading for five and a half years. The latest improvement in overall operating performance [...]

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You can be bearish and point to the potential for a double dip all you want (I certainly do). But to dismiss out of hand the huge uptick in manufacturing is just crazy.  These numbers are off the charts bullish.
 
Witness the latest manufacturing data from the ISM below:

The PMI is at 58.4, last seen [...]

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I have sifted through the most recent personal income data and wanted to show you a few charts that might indicate where we’re heading.
First, there is personal income.  It’s fallen off a cliff since the recession began. Looking at the six-month average to smooth out blips, personal income growth peaked way back in June and [...]

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This is a post which was originally published at A Fistful of Euros.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain’s prime minister, said in Davos this week: “We are a serious country and we will fulfil our promises.”

With these words Spain’s Prime Minister sought, during [...]

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I am in the process of crunching the numbers from today’s report on U.S. personal income and outlays. The monthly data came out at 8:30 EST this morning but I think the quarterly data is more interesting because it goes back to 1947, where the monthly data only goes back to 1959. Here’s a chart [...]