Developments continue to be bullish for Mexico

Given what we see as a basically hands off policy with regards to the exchange rate when MXN is appreciating, we see more potential upside for MXN compared to, say, BRL, where Brazilian authorities are clearly going to work against further currency strength. Others in Latin America are concerned with currency strength, including Colombia. As such, going long MXN vs. BRL or COP would be a good alternative too. On the other side, Banxico has installed circuit-breakers to help boost peso liquidity during times of stresses as part of an effort to prevent disorderly downside movement in the peso

Not Too Late for Turn Around Tuesday

Many observers will posit the euro’s resilience today to the flash PMI reading for January where both the manufacturing and service sector readings were above expectations. The flash manufacturing diffusion index stood at 48.7 vs 47.3 consensus and 46.9 in December. The service sector index is at 50.5 vs 49.0 consensus and 48.3 in December. Yet in the forward looking components like new orders remain weak

Roubini: we will see a Greece credit event, regardless of deal

Roubini said that the “probability of a recession in the United States is lower than 60 percent right now.” On Europe, he said that even if an agreement is reached on Greece, “there are going to be so many holdouts that then they’ll have a problem” and “either way you’re going to get a credit event.”

This is my take as well. In Europe, the concern has to be more Italy and Spain and whether the periphery can meet deficit targets given the poor economic outlook in the euro zone

Jim O’Neill: Chinese GDP numbers are “a blow for the hard landing guys”

There has been a lot of discussion about whether China’s growth will slow enough to be considered a hard landing and what that would mean for the global economy and investors. Below is an account from Bloomberg featuring Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jim O’Neill that is more in the soft landing camp. O’Neill also talks about the European sovereign debt crisis and Greece

The Sovereign Debt Crisis and Confirmation Bias

The myth that Greeks are lazy and Germans are industrious and that this has some significance in the sovereign debt crisis is everywhere one turns. It is false. The issues for Greece are not about working longer hours but are ones of productivity, industrial organisation, and demographics. That won’t stop people from spinning the tales of lazy Greeks and workaholic Germans

Protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis

Happy Wednesday. I know the news is ‘less good’ today than it was when I last wrote you but writing these weeklies always puts me in a more positive frame of mind. Nevertheless, today’s topic is about downside risk. My hope is to frame the economic scenario globally and then to offer some strategies of mitigating what I believe is significant downside investment risk

Can Brazil’s economic boom last?

I thought I would flag this video by the BBC because I think we are seeing Brazil slow along with China and India as the three largest emerging economies that people care about

Code words and dog whistle economics

Here are a few code words that you will often see in economic writing followed by their true meaning. The code word is a dog whistle. It acts like an emotional marker only for those attuned to the underlying ‘moral’ issues inferred by the code. While you may agree with the logical framework behind the code word, the purpose in using the code is to influence emotion instead of logic

Steve Keen on HARDtalk on the financial crisis and the economy

This time it’s Steve Keen on the hotseat on HARDtalk. Now, Steve is one of the few economists who actually predicted the global financial crisis. But what about the possibility of another Great Depression? That possibility and how to avoid it were the topics of conversation in this 25-minute interview. Great stuff

Watch Switzerland on Monday

Switzerland reports its October consumer prices on Monday. This could be important. The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cap the franc took place on the same day that the August CPI was reported (Sept 6). It showed a 0.3% month-over-month decline after a 0.8% decline in July. There are many observers who expect the SNB to lower its cap for the franc (that is raise the euro floor form CHF1.20 to CHF1.25 or higher) and see the risk of deflation as a potential trigger

To Forgive is Divine

Markets rallied strongly in response to the European developments. Yet it is an exaggeration to think that risk appetites returned as the whole month of October has seen equities, emerging markets, commodities and foreign currencies trend higher, recovering from their neck-breaking, wealth-destroying plunge in September. Still the advance on Thursday was impressive, helping propel the euro and the S&P 500 through the 200-day moving average, allowing sterling to test its similar moving average and pushed the dollar to yet another marginal new record low against the Japanese yen.

We think the market is getting ahead of itself, but the technical momentum and positioning may allow for an extension of the move. Medium term investors may need to be patient, but the fundamentals will likely reassert themselves shortly

Another Bear Market Trap

The sharp rally off the October 4th intraday low of the S&P 500 is a result of the assumed prospect of a real plan to save the Euro and slightly improved U.S. economic numbers indicating that we may not be in a recession right now. In addition the market was probably oversold after its rapid plunge below the 1260-1370 trading zone. We think the market will soon be disappointed on both counts