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Last week the federal Reserve released its quarterly flow of funds data. I have been unusually slow to parse the numbers. But I did do a very comprehensive sweep of the historical data in an October 2009 post called A brief look at the Asset-Based Economy at economic turns.
The overall conclusion of this analysis [...]

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This is a post from John Lounsbury which will cover ground on the official designation of recessions and his own designation of depressions about which he has written in the past. Previous articles in this series have discussed:

The NBER process for dating recessions;
Redefining the business cycle;
Normalization of GDP to population; and
Normalization of [...]

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Highlights
The US dollar is firmer against most currencies. The euro failed to extend Friday’s break up out of the $1.3436-$1.3788 range in which it has been trading since Mar 17th while against the Swiss franc, the euro is trading at its lowest level in 17 months.  The single currency is consolidating above $1.3685 support area [...]

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The February US retail sales data was much stronger than expected, even when taking into account the downward revisions in January.  A picture of a broadening of the recovery is emerging.   Looking at the Jan-Fed period combined, the headline rate rose a combined 0.4% and the market had expected a 0.3% increase, but the real [...]

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Seasonally-adjusted jobless claims dipped 6,000 to 462,000 for the week ending 6 Mar 2010. This is significantly lower than the revised 498,000 number we saw two weeks prior. Nevertheless, 4-week average jobless claims are still over 475,000. This number is actually higher than the previous week’s 470,500 average.

At least we are seeing some incipient [...]

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Canada reported a larger than expected trade surplus earlier today.  At C$0.8 bln, it was four times larger than expected and the December figures were revised to show a C$0.1 bln surplus instead of a C$0.2 bln deficit.  Canada also reported a strong rise in Q4 capacity utilization rate to 70.9% from a revised 68.7% [...]

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I hadn’t seen an advance release of the January German export data, when I wrote the following on Tuesday, honest injun I hadn’t:
Well, this is only a hypothesis. But if the hypothesis has any validity we should be able to make some predictions on the basis of it. I would make two. Firstly, since East [...]

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August 2009 was the high point of American’s satisfaction with the economy during Barack Obama’s tenure. Interestingly, this meshes with the data on the ground. In a recent interview, Simoleon Sense quoted James Montier as saying that his favourite real-time economic indicator is the ADS Business Conditions Index charted below (hat tip Philly Fed [...]

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According to Bundesbank President Axel Weber, Germany’s economic recovery is “essentially intact”, and is now set to benefit from stronger demand in countries outside the euro region.
“I firmly believe that the recovery process that began in summer 2009 is essentially intact, and that it will continue despite the slower growth dynamic in the winter semester. [...]

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Initial jobless claims fell 29,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 469,000 from a revised 498,000 the prior week. While the fall is certainly welcome, initial jobless claims remain very high more than two years after the recession began in December 2007. Moreover, the four-week average is still quite elevated at 470,750.

The biggest point of weakness in [...]