Post Tagged with: "economic recovery"
Market Is Out On A Limb
by Comstock Partners The stock market rally is on shaky ground and severely overextended. It is being propelled by a combination of momentum-oriented trading strategies and dubious fundamental assumptions. The traders have no real fundamental beliefs and will, as usual, head for the exits as soon as the trend begins to waver. Fundamental bulls believe
Jim Bianco Sees 50-50 Chance of Double Dip
This interview with Bloomberg is from last Friday (hat tip Scot). Bianco says that despite more benign trailing and coincident indicators, the decline in leading indicators supports his market-bearish view. The interview runs about 10 minutes
A Recovery That Looks Like Recession
by Comstock Partners For some strange reason a number of economists and strategists seen on TV and quoted in the press maintain that the exceedingly weak recovery we are now undergoing is really a "normal" or "average" recovery. Nothing could be further from the truth. This is not our opinion, but is based on fact.
Warren Buffett: “We’re still in a recession.” Technical recoveries don’t count.
Warren Buffett wants his street cred back! He’s coming down on the side of most people on main street who believe the recession is still ongoing despite what the NBER stat gurus say. Reuters quotes: "We’re still in a recession," Buffett told CNBC television in an interview broadcast on Thursday. "We’re not gonna be out
Is The American Dream Fading?
Below is the full hour-long "Investing in America" CNBC town hall meeting from this past Monday where President Obama took questions from concerned Americans on his plans for the economy. For those who don’t want to watch the full version, below is a shorter excerpt, reactions and commentary. Enjoy. (Homeowner Reactions) (Baby Boomer
On recessions and recoveries
The main street reaction to the NBER’s determination of a recovery starting in June 2009 has been – as expected – angry. Here are a few sample comments to my post on the recession’s end: Obviously we need to redefine "recession." Most people would either laugh or become enraged at the idea that the recession
NBER: Double Dip or Banana Split?
by the Consumer Metrics Institute We founded the Consumer Metrics Institute precisely because we felt that the economic bureaucrats in Washington were out of touch with the economy that most of us live in. They remind us of those patients sitting in wheelchairs in the "memory impaired" wards at nursing homes: with crystal clear recall
The recession ended in June 2009
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has determined that the recession which began in December 2007 ended in June 2009. In the report announcing this decision, the NBER wrote that economic activity is typically lower post-recession than it was pre-recession, meaning that the initial stages of a technical recovery will not seem like a recovery.
The Chances of a Double Dip
by Gary Shilling Investor attitudes have reversed abruptly in recent months. As late as last March, most translated the year-long robust rise in stocks, foreign currencies, commodities and the weakness in Treasury bonds that had commenced a year earlier into robust economic growth – the "V" recovery. As a result, investors early this year believed
GDP and Recessions — A Valuable Metric (but Overused)
In this piece on GDP and recessions, John Lounsbury expands on an earlier article about how this particular recession is different. Catch more of John and other top-notch econ writers at Global Economic Intersection, John’s new website on economics. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most widely followed metrics when people try to
More On The ECRI Leading Indicator
by Comstock Partners Last week, toward the end of our comment on consumer deleveraging, we mentioned that the year-over-year change in the ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator had strongly suggested the distinct possibility of recession. In answer to some questions about it, we would like to provide a bit more detail this week. When we were
Rosenberg: Not Your Average Recession
by John Lounsbury David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, Toronto, has a graph that goes a long way toward explaining why this recovery does not feel like a recovery: Click on images for larger graphs. Is the reason that this doesn’t feel like a recovery because so many things have not recovered?