I have been taking a bit of a break as my trip to the Ontario’s Lake Country winds down.  It’s a beautiful place.  But, as Marshall Auerback and I were lamenting, it has become the Hamptons of Canada as everyone from Toronto is up here for the summer holidays.
But, it has been relaxing. Since I [...]

If you recall, at the end of May, I wrote a post “Both initial claims and continuing claims now pointing to recovery” that said jobless claims data were pointing to an imminent recovery.  The general gist of my argument was recovery would come by year’s end or early in 2010. But we needed to focus [...]

Dick Berner, Chief North American Economist at Morgan Stanley, thinks we are in for a sizable uptick in GDP for Q3.  I must be honest; I am sceptical about this, but Berner is a well-regarded economist  whose views can’t be dismissed out of hand.  He says:
Incoming data… confirm that the deepest and longest post-war recession [...]

The July 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business disappointed as it dropped to 46.4 from 47.0. Expectations had been for 48.0. The new orders and jobs components both fell, suggesting that the services sector is still contracting and not poised for an imminent rebound.

The US is not the only place where a double dip downturn is to be feared.  China has its own economic imbalances to deal with.  Too much money is being thrown at the problem creating malinvestment and a bubble economy, shares having doubled this year alone.
Stephen Roach thinks much of the stimulus money in China [...]

On Friday, in reporting on second quarter GDP statistics, I wrote with some skepticism about the underlying consumer demand which would underpin a sustainable recovery.  I do feel that the stage is set for recovery; Alan Greenspan thinks the economy has already recovered. However, I am worried that a double dip could result as much [...]

On Friday, when the BEA reports the initial 2nd quarter GDP numbers, it will do so based on completely revised historical data.  Expect some surprises.
What is coming on July 31st is what is known as benchmark revisions of the national income and product accounts (NIPA).  Last month, along with the final Q1 2009 GDP figures, [...]

 
Here’s a nice clip from Stephen Roach from last week asking “where’s the demand?” 
His thesis is pretty simple:  we have an inventory-induced upturn that might actually show positive GDP growth in the U.S. for Q3, what I have termed the mother of all inventory corrections.  But, that’s it.  Underneath this is no discernible pickup [...]

While Tim Geithner is out in the Middle East making the obligatory rounds, professing support for a strong U.S. dollar, investment strategists are wondering aloud whether a weak U.S. dollar is really what the U.S. government wants.  David Rosenberg put out the following note over at Gluskin, Sheff.
It is the second anniversary of the credit [...]

I just read a CNBC story which fails to mention CNBC’s involvement in the apparently erroneous report that Nouriel Roubini has suddenly become more bullish. Is this omission justified? 
The controversy centers on statements Roubini made regarding the timing of a technical recovery in the United States.  Yesterday, it was reported on CNBC and elsewhere [...]