This comes via TheStreet.com and Doug Kass, a noted market strategist:
Many strategists (both bullish and bearish) assume that a fair value P/E multiple — based on interest rates and inflation — rests at about 15.5 times. Averaging the 2009 and 2010 S&P consensus forecasts produces a melded $67.50 S&P EPS, a year-end target of 1045 [...]
economic recovery's tag archives
Kass: Bearish on equities
Sep
Is economic boom around the corner?
Sep
Back in February, I asked you if we were experiencing a recession or depression. A plurality said it was a depression with a small ’d.’ I agreed and went on to explain why. Since then, things have changed and we seem to be on the verge of what I call a technical recovery (or a [...]
Unemployment claims falling faster than in half of past recessions
Aug
The U.S. Department of Labor released the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report showing that initial jobless claims decreased 10,000 in the latest week to 570,000 from an upwardly revised 580,000 the week prior. The 4-week moving average is now 566,250, less than 100,000 off the April peak.
Since the week ended Jul. 18, the average initial [...]
518 views
Cash for Clunkers will put GDP over the top in Q3
Aug
You may have heard the reports that US auto dealers were swamped on Monday night as the car scrappage scheme dubbed “Cash for Clunkers” expired. American taxpayers were eligible for a tax rebate of up to $4500 for trading in an older gas guzzler for a new vehicle. And all evidence shows that they took [...]
Oil breaks out above 2009 high
Aug
This comes via the Financial Post:
Oil rose above US$74 a barrel on Monday, extending its rally to trade near a 10-month high, on optimism that an economic recovery will spur a rebound in energy demand.
A string of positive economic data from various countries and rallying stock markets helped lift oil prices by 9.5% last week. [...]
Existing home sales add to the parade of bullish data
Aug
Data on existing home sales were significantly above expectations with a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million sales registered according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The NAR released a statement on the figures, an excerpt of which is below.
For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in [...]
156 views
Morgan Stanley: Bullish, but not revising estimates for Euroland
Aug
Elga Bartsch writes that Morgan Stanley looks at the recent data coming out of Eurloand as distinctly bullish. As a result, they are revising up their GDP estimates.
A number of countries, notably the euro area’s two largest economies – Germany and France – posted a surprise rise in 2Q GDP. Others – like Italy, Spain [...]
Philly Fed survey points to manufacturing rebound
Aug
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its monthly Business Outlook Survey for August 2009. The numbers showed that the manufacturing sector in the region is in recovery mode right now, with the survey recording its highest level since November 2007, the last month before the recession began.
The region’s manufacturing sector is showing some signs [...]
Spain: consumption drop four times as much as in ‘93
Aug
According to the results of a study by the Spanish savings bank Caixa Catalunya, consumption will fall 4.1% this year, making the reaction to this downturn four times as severe as during the last big downturn in 1993. Back then consumption only fell 0.9%.
The results are not only an indication of the deteriorated employment outlook [...]
Discerning a real from a fake, technical, statistical, or partial recovery
Aug
Right now many economists believe the US economy is poised for recovery. Even I believe the economy will recover by year’s end. But for the man in the street, things hardly look like a recovery right now. Harried by falling house prices, foreclosure and lost employment, the US consumer is over-indebted and has run out [...]
1,764 views
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