• US personal income data for September shows pullback 30 Oct 2009
• January personal income data best macro news in a while 28 Feb 2011
• Do the personal income data demonstrate unbalanced reflation? 4 Aug 2009

• Technical recovery won’t feel like a recovery to most 5 Jul 2009
• Discerning a real from a fake, technical, statistical, or partial recovery 17 Aug 2009
• Warren Buffett: “We’re still in a recession.” Technical recoveries don’t count. 23 Sep 2010

• Barton Bigss on Charlie Rose 11 Mar 2009
• The Big Interview with David Stockman 17 Sep 2010
• The Big Interview with David Rosenberg 16 Aug 2010

• Chart of the Day: S&P still above Lehman crisis level despite pullback 14 Oct 2010
• The drop in unemployment is give back from the prior month 7 Dec 2009
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims at Lowest Level in Three Years 3 Mar 2011

• Stephen Roach: Economy Must Get Off ‘Steroids’ 13 Apr 2011
• The US Economy 2008 11 Mar 2008
• Three views of the global economy 15 Feb 2009

• The weak employment situation summary for June 2009 2 Jul 2009
• Employment situation: 9.7% unemployment, 20,000 jobs lost 5 Feb 2010
• Employment situation report paints grim picture 3 Apr 2009

• A conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio 10 Feb 2009
• Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio on Gold, Bonds, and Money Printing 18 May 2010
• Ray Dalio: Inflation is not just around the corner… yet 29 May 2010

Noam Scheiber's recent article on Tim Geithner is a good piece for understanding Geithner's thinking. He wants American banks to penetrate emerging markets and get even bigger. How this benefits the U.S. economy is unclear, however. It reminds me of the Slate piece from December 2009 when Geithner said the Obama Administration needed to override the popular sentiment against banks and bail them out in order to beat back the economic downturn.

Bailouts are seductive to policy makers because they can work even if the underlying economic fundamentals are suspect. If policy makers are able to kick the can far enough down the road and put enough time between the bailout and its inevitable consequences, they may escape blame for the inevitable crisis. The Savings and Loan crisis is a perfect example of this kind of thinking.

However, I would argue that crisis will return to the U.S. as well when the next downturn hits because of debt in the state, local and household levels as well as hidden losses in the financial sector. But that is a ways off yet. For now, the narrative that has gained momentum is one of stock market boom and sustainable recovery. If this narrative holds through 2012, Barack Obama will benefit.

• Bad behavior in financial services 27 Jan 2009
• AIG: More giveaways to financial services via NY Fed 26 Jun 2009
• Geithner testifies before Congress on financial reform 29 Oct 2009

• Employment Data Poor Despite Drop in Unemployment Rate 2 Jul 2010
• ADP Employment Numbers Weak; Only 13,000 Jobs Added 30 Jun 2010
• Employment situation: 9.7% unemployment, 20,000 jobs lost 5 Feb 2010

• EM Currencies: What is Real? What is Nominal? 17 Nov 2010

• Why It’s Not A Normal Recovery 4 Jun 2010
• Technical recovery won’t feel like a recovery to most 5 Jul 2009
• What are US Jobless claims telling us about recovery? 6 Jan 2011

• The Big Interview With Alan Greenspan: ‘Prove I Was Wrong’ 8 Jan 2011
• Market turmoil confirms FDIC’s tough position 14 Jul 2008
• Greenspan Came Not to Save Consumers but to Bury Them 8 Apr 2010

• Jamie Dimon: ‘we don’t need’ your money 16 Apr 2009
• Jamie Dimon: “If You Are Not Fearful, You Are Crazy” 16 Oct 2008
• Jamie Dimon on the economy 17 Dec 2008

• Ireland Budget Plan Likely Too Optimistic 24 Nov 2010

• US economy loses 247,000 jobs in July 7 Aug 2009
• Some Thoughts on the US Jobs Report 2 Dec 2010
• Jobless claims dip in most recent week 7 May 2009

• Is Alan Greenspan self-serving? 5 Aug 2008
• Jim Grant on Alan Greenspan 8 Apr 2010
• More support for the asset-based economy status quo from Sir Alan Greenspan 8 Feb 2010

• Are US jobless claims telling us something? 4 Sep 2008
• What is the recent increase in U.S. jobless claims telling us? 19 Feb 2009
• Jobless claims back to 551,000; employment missing link to recovery 1 Oct 2009

• Weaker eurozone manufacturers losing competitiveness 1 Feb 2010
• ISM Manufacturing Index: New orders growing 1 Jun 2009
• Durable goods orders down 4.5%, double expectations 25 Sep 2008

• Rosenberg: Sub-2% long term bond yields 30 Jun 2010
• Rise in Bond Yields Drives Dollar Strength 8 Dec 2010
• Corporate bond yields demonstrate that risk is back 22 Jan 2010

• Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2010 4 Jan 2010
• More on Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010 4 Jan 2010
• Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2007 and 2008 5 Jan 2010

• Meredith Whitney Comments on Housing Double Dip 21 Jun 2010
• Robert Byrd and Housing 29 Jun 2010
• Where is the Bottom for Housing? We May Not Know for Years 26 Sep 2010

• Personal income and recessions since 1929 12 Oct 2009
• Why the personal consumption data is important to the stock market 2 Jun 2009
• Consumer Metrics Institute Personal Finance Index Continues to Deteriorate 4 Jun 2010

• Who’s spending more this holiday season? 11 Dec 2009
• Strong May auto sales are bullish for retail sales 3 Jun 2009
• Retail Sales Much Stronger than Expected 12 Mar 2010

• State and local governments: budget cuts likely 18 Mar 2008
• Chart of the Day: State Budget Gaps 2010 19 Jan 2010
• Graphic: Unemployment – State by State 12 Jan 2010

• Eurozone Q4 GDP Growth Disappoints 12 Feb 2010
• Alcoa earnings on deck, but focus on FedEx and UPS 8 Jul 2009

• Debt Deflation Defined 1 Oct 2010
• Video: Hugh Hendry on UK growth prospects on BBC’s QuestionTime 29 Oct 2010
• Less Policy Advocacy and More Policy Forecasting at Credit Writedowns 22 Oct 2010

• British Households Facing Price Squeeze 17 Nov 2010

• Jobless claims up 26,000 but 4-week average falls to lowest since August 2008 2 Dec 2010
• Jobless claims 470,000, average rises for 2nd week 28 Jan 2010
• Average U.S. jobless claims top 600,000 12 Feb 2009

• Time to Cut Taxes? 4 Nov 2009
• Taxes, Taxes, Everywhere 11 Jun 2008
• Obama takes middle road on stimulus and taxes that leads nowhere 26 Jun 2009

• ISM: February 2010 manufacturing data slightly lower, report still good 1 Mar 2010
• Achuthan: Leading Indicators Point To Slowing Growth; Jobs Outlook Murky 5 Jun 2010

• Jobless claims: 558,000 for week ended August 8 13 Aug 2009
• Jobless claims 470,000, average rises for 2nd week 28 Jan 2010
• Jobless claims lowest in 9 months 8 Oct 2009

• Black Friday activity in heat map graphical form 30 Nov 2009
• More Black Friday Themed Links 27 Nov 2010
• Freight and Truck Traffic Point To Recovery 10 Jun 2010

• On recessions and recoveries 21 Sep 2010
• Personal income and recessions since 1929 12 Oct 2009
• GDP and Recessions — A Valuable Metric (but Overused) 17 Sep 2010