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[Premium] Daily commentary: Does the US recovery have legs?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 17:45:27 +0000

This daily commentary is a bronze-level post. A lot of the data coming through in recent weeks shows the US recovery will continue for a bit. I caught two or three data points in the links today about this so I wanted to flag it for the daily commentary

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Brief Note on Big Surge in US Consumer Credit

Marc Chandler — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 13:44:57 +0000

Late yesterday the US reported the biggest jump in consumer credit in a decade. It reinforces the signal of the gradual healing of the labor market and the resilience of the US consumer. The report increases the risk that the November personal consumption expenditures are revised higher from the initial 0.1% estimate

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Heavy revision to personal income data in US shows debt stress

Edward Harrison — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 13:00:57 +0000

What does it mean that disposable income was revised down all three years, yet the savings rate was revised down in 2009 and 2010? I think it means that people were under debt stress trying to maintain lifestyles once the technical recovery formed. This was what I said in the last post on HSBC that I expect to occur going forward

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We are back in a technical recovery

Edward Harrison — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 18:00:35 +0000

The latest batch of GDP numbers saw some heavy downward revisions to prior numbers, especially during the recession of 2008-2009. In fact, the GDP revisions were so extensive, they put us back in the 'technical recovery' phase i.e. where we are still below 2007 Q4 peak Real

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The Big Interview with Barton Biggs

Edward Harrison — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 18:49:28 +0000

In this week’s Big Interview, Barton Biggs has a lot to say. What stands out and what the WSJ has stressed is his support for public works programs

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Chart of the day: Job level relative to prior peak

Edward Harrison — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 13:30:34 +0000

Since the recession in 1990-91, the recovery of employment in the US has had a U-shape that is nothing like the previous post-World War II employment recoveries. This one will be the worst

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On How The US Job Market Is Shifting

Edward Harrison — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 01:30:56 +0000

Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) explains his view to Anthony Mason of CBS that the problem in the US jobs market is not jut cyclical in nature

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QE3 will only become a reality after the economy deteriorates

Comstock Partners — Sat, 04 Jun 2011 15:00:14 +0000

As Jon Hilsenrath pointed out in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal Bernanke has already indicated that the hurdle to more quantitative easing is very high. This is not to say that QE3 is off the table forever. But QE3 will only become a reality after the economy deteriorates to a point where deflation again becomes a clear threat and most opposition to the program fades away. The problem is that, by that time, most portfolio managers will have thrown in the towel and the market will be far lower

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The Employment Situation Summary in Graphs, February 2011

Edward Harrison — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 14:30:47 +0000

The US Department of Labor released the Employment Situation Summary for February 2011 this morning at 830ET. The data showed an increase of 192,000 jobs from non-farms payrolls with the headline rate of unemployment declining to 8.9% from 9.0% the previous month. I am still in the process of parsing the data, but I can say that the headline numbers are largely in line with market expectations. The numbers are indicative of a slowly improving labour market, but one which is still sluggish.

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Another conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio

Edward Harrison — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 22:00:38 +0000

The last time Ray Dalio conducted a major interview, the global economy seemed to be headed toward a major depression. This was in February 2009 when Barron’s had a conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio. For his part, Dalio saw the episode as part of a necessary restructuring process. He called it the D-Process. The

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