Every week the U.S. Department of Labor puts out the previous week’s jobless claims statistics through its Employment and Training Administration (Doleta). Analysts look at it to get a sense of how employment is being affected by the underlying economy in order to predict what consumer spending will be like down the road. The [...]

I don’t trust the U.S. government’s inflation number for measuring real GDP. The annual rate of inflation in this measurement is only 2.2%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is running at a 4.0% clip. That’s as large a differential as you’ll see between two government inflation statistics.

The GDP number was revised upwards from 0.6% growth to 0.9% growth. However, what is most interesting is the GDP implicit price deflator. This is the index number the BEA uses to get from nominal GDP to real GDP, the inflation-adjusted number everyone hears on TV and in the news. Nominal GDP was up only 3.5%. So what is your guess about the inflation number the BEA used to get the 0.9% growth number you hear on TV? 3% inflation, 4% inflation?

This article speaks for itself.
Bill for taxpayers swells by trillionsDeficit far bigger than government estimate
By Dennis CauchonUSA TODAY
The federal government’s long-term financial obligations grew by $2.5 trillion last year, a reflection of the mushrooming cost of Medicare and Social Security benefits as more baby boomers reach retirement.
That’s double the red ink of a year earlier.
Taxpayers [...]

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A great article on the website Safe Haven asks the important question: Can you trust the government’s data. I had the same question in a post called “Last week’s GDP numbers.” Here’s what Michael Pento has to say in his article:
The following graphs show G.D.P. growth rates using the chain type price index, [...]

This chart speaks for itself.
See also:Unemployment Report: biggest rise in rate in two decadesChart of the day: Change in jobless claims

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The U.S. has been spending more than it earns for years. This deficit spending is measured as the current account deficit. The graph here is a depiction of where we were and what we have come to. We had a slight surplus in after the last major recession in 1991. Now [...]

As with the GDP numbers last week, the employment numbers were very dubious indeed. The headline number was still a loss of 20,000 jobs. However, the detail point to likely revisions much beyond that number when more exact data have been compiled in the future.
Four SectorsFrom Mish Shedlock’s blog, one can see 4 [...]

This weekend I received a disturbing newsletter from John Mauldin, provacatively entitled ” Lies and Other Statistics,” that dissected the GDP numbers where the headline number was +0.6%. Digging into the detail reveals a completely different picture altogether.
We are in recessionIt is in the best interest of the U.S. Federal Government to paint a [...]