With more and more major economists predicting recovery sometime later this year, many have forgotten that downside risks remain.  Berner, Roubini, Volcker, Krugman and Bernanke have all come out essentially saying they would not be surprised to see a ‘technical’ recovery at some point later this year.  Robert Gordon has gone as far as to [...]

Since so many economists are signing up to the second-half recovery meme (Berner, Gordon, Krugman, Bernanke), I am going to ask you whether you believe them or not.
What say ye?
(If you can’t read the above it is a poll asking you when we are likely to see recession end in the U.S.)
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A recent post I published on both Credit Writedowns and Naked Capitalism, “Both initial claims and continuing claims now pointing to recovery,” has left the impression that I am a wild-eyed bull – for which I have been duly smacked about the head.  This is far from the case.  A recent post by Nouriel Roubini [...]

This morning you may have read Gideon Rachman’s positive view on Hungary.  He said the panic is all but over and it looks like Hungry is going to get through this debt crisis.
The horror scenario envisaged a Hungarian banking collapse that would ripple back into the rest of Europe and then around the world. Many [...]

Now that everyone is talking about green shoots and the potential for economic recovery, I thought I would run through the statistics of U.S. GDP with you.  The reason I am bringing this up is that there is a lot of confusion about what recovery means and positive GDP growth mean.  So, I am going [...]

I have been making bullish noises of late, but I am fully cognizant of all the downside risks.  So for the sake of presenting both sides to this argument, I want to highlight the ‘dark’ side in this post based on a book I have just read.
If you are an American investor or just an [...]

I am watching Bernanke at the congressional hearing.  You can see his prepared testimony at CR here.  But, the general take on what he is saying is that the economy has reached its worst rate of decline and should improve steadily until it actually recovers later this year.  He also says that major impediments remain, [...]

Today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its Non-Manufacturing Survey on Business. The overall index increased to 43.7 in April from 40.8 in March.  As 50 is the demarcation line for a growing economy, these numbers demonstrate that the services sector is still contracting. Nevertheless, the index was broadly higher across most of its [...]

A post from Reuters in overnight trading in Asia caught my eye.  It proclaimed “Asia faces up to challenges of global crisis." What I found particularly interesting about the post was the fact that the Asians had set up a $120 billion fund through the Asian Development Bank which excluded the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [...]

For most of the last few years, I have been labeled a perma-bear, that is someone who looks at the situation from a reflexively skeptical glass half-empty bias. One only need peruse our archives to get that impression. In fact, that is hardly the case. Over the past few months, as the evidence of a [...]