Back in February, I asked you if we were experiencing a recession or depression.  A plurality said it was a depression with a small ’d.’ I agreed and went on to explain why. Since then, things have changed and we seem to be on the verge of what I call a technical recovery (or a [...]

This comes from the blog News from 1930:
An out-of-work broker asked a friend who owned a circus for work. His friend said the circus gorilla had recently died, and if the broker wanted to get into the gorilla’s skin, swing around, growl, and amuse the children, he could have the job. Things went well until [...]

Refining margins have been absolutely decimated, especially for refiners of heavy, sour crude like Valero Energy (VLO) and Tesoro Petroleum (TSO).  This is taking a toll on profits in the oil and gas sector, with both oil majors highly leveraged to downstream operations like ConocoPhillips (COP) and independent refining outfits showing steep falloffs in operating [...]

Recently Allan Meltzer, a former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, wrote a widely noted and provocative article in the Wall Street Journal called “What Happened to the ‘Depression?’” He called for an end to deficit-inducing stimulus because the cries of Depression from noted mainstream economists has been proven false.  His thesis is that these [...]

According to the results of a study by the Spanish savings bank Caixa Catalunya, consumption will fall 4.1% this year, making the reaction to this downturn four times as severe as during the last big downturn in 1993.  Back then consumption only fell 0.9%.
The results are not only an indication of the deteriorated employment outlook [...]

This entry from Gary Shilling comes via John Mauldin’s site InvestorInsight.com where he highlights commentary from some of the best economic thinkers. Shilling, who correctly predicted problems in residential real estate in the US, is in the deflation camp.  He thinks the US will be a slow growing economy prone to recession and high unemployment [...]

If you recall, at the end of May, I wrote a post “Both initial claims and continuing claims now pointing to recovery” that said jobless claims data were pointing to an imminent recovery.  The general gist of my argument was recovery would come by year’s end or early in 2010. But we needed to focus [...]

Both Latvia’s and Estonia’s debt ratings were downgraded by Standard and Poors.  Estonia was cut from A to A-, while Latvia was cut to BB+ to BB – its considered high yield securities aka junk bonds. This should come as no surprise as both countries have been in the news due to severe economic dislocations [...]

On Friday, in reporting on second quarter GDP statistics, I wrote with some skepticism about the underlying consumer demand which would underpin a sustainable recovery.  I do feel that the stage is set for recovery; Alan Greenspan thinks the economy has already recovered. However, I am worried that a double dip could result as much [...]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a good piece on Iceland out today at the Telegraph. The main point of his article is that Iceland is emerging from crisis and depression in a relatively healthy state due to a fifty percent currency devaluation.  While, GDP will shrink by 7% this year in Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Estonia and many [...]