ShareYesterday, Moody’s cut the outlook for the sovereign debt of Portugal and put Greece on negative watch for a downgrade, signaling growing concern over spiraling debts. Just as with Spain and Ireland which I discussed yesterday, Portugal and Greece are smaller countries within the Eurozone with large fiscal problems due to the recession. For example, [...]

ShareThis is a post I wrote in response to an ongoing debate about financial crises, credit revulsion and deficit spending over at Naked Capitallism. See the four links in the first paragraph for the precursor articles.
DoctoRx, Rob Parenteau and Marshall Auerback have each written articles here to bring clarity to some issues I first raised [...]

We received word today from the British government that GDP in the UK contracted for a record sixth quarter in Q3 2009. I like Neil Hume’s headline on this one, “GDP shock flop.”

ShareThere is an enormous dichotomy in foreign exchange markets that has wide-ranging implications for the global economy.  In Europe, most currencies float freely against the U.S. dollar. In Asia and the Mideast, most do not.
What this has meant in practice is two things. First, as the U.S. dollar has weakened, it has done so [...]

ShareLast year at this time I posted “The Economy’s Four Horsemen,” which described macro cause and effect leading into and out of recessions.  When looking at income, spending, output and employment, it is income which is the steer variable going into a downturn.  Year-on-year changes in income precede changes in spending, output, employment and recession. [...]

ShareMarshall Auerback here.  I want to add a few thoughts on the situation in Latvia which Ed has highlighted on several occasions. His allusion to Argentina to describe the situation in the Baltics last July was on the money. I have a solution here out of the Argentine playbook.
In Latvia, the neo-liberal insanity continues.  The [...]

ShareI found the recent consumer credit data unsatisfying because the data seemed to point in two directions. The seasonally-adjusted data showed a large $12 billion decrease in consumer credit which received headlines. Meanwhile, the non-seasonally adjusted data showed a large $7 billion increase in consumer credit. I suspect this divergence has a lot to do [...]

ShareHere’s the joke of the day via Steve Keen:
Ten reasons the economy is so bad (I suggest this as a top ten for David Letterman?):

#10: I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail.
#9: I ordered a burger at McDonalds and the kid behind the counter asked, “Can you afford fries with that?”
#8: CEO’s are [...]

ShareThe banks have been the ones benefitting most from free money via the Federal Government and U.S. taxpayers.  Given 9.8% base unemployment and 17.0% comprehensive unemployment, it is a bit galling for ordinary Americans that these same institutions are making record profits and poised to hand out record bonuses. Detroit is one of the hardest [...]

ShareFor the last few months I have been casting around looking for bullish data points as counterfactuals to my more bearish long-term outlook. I have found some, but not enough. If you recall, early this year, I stated that we are in depression, making the case for the ongoing downturn as a depression with a [...]