Post Tagged with: "economic data"

Dollar Softer As Markets Head Into Holiday Mode

Dollar Softer As Markets Head Into Holiday Mode

US dollar is softer vs. majors Friday as markets head into holiday mode; sentiment improving a bit in the absence of any major negative euro zone developments. France Q3 GDP revised weaker, Italy confidence lower than expected; euro zone recession in 2012 will likely exacerbate debt problems. RUB outperforms as central bank narrows interest rate corridor; TRY weaker after central bank auctions only $50 mln today vs. $1 bln bid.

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Real Earnings through November 2011

Chart of the Day: U.S. Real Earnings through November 2011

Only three positive months in the last year. Lots of pain out there. Be charitable this holiday season, our friends. The return is tremendous.

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Is Finland Really A Closet Member Of The Eurozone Periphery?

Is Finland Really A Closet Member Of The Eurozone Periphery?

The country’s debt dynamics are far from unsustainable at this point, but given the weakening in the country’s export performance and the steady unwinding of the housing boom we can now anticipate I would expect growth to be weaker than either the EU or the IMF are currently anticipating, and pressure on the country to increase fiscal spending to maintain expectations to rise, with the implication that pressure on the Finnish spread over 10 year German bunds will continue, as the country risks drifting off from being part of the core towards the growing periphery, at least in the eyes of investors.

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China: Lots of news, signifying nothing new

China: Lots of news, signifying nothing new

I don’t think there is a whole lot to say about this week’s numbers beyond what I have been saying for the past several months. Nothing substantial has really changed. China’s external account is worsening, and will continue to worsen since global imbalances have no choice but to adjust. Growth in China is slowing but remains relatively rapid, and as unhealthy as ever, but there is little likely to be done to improve the quality of growth until 2013. Beijing will continue veering back and forth between stomping on the credit accelerator and stomping on the credit brakes as the only way they can manage the economy.

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Downgrades, Upgrades and US Inflation

Downgrades, Upgrades and US Inflation

The dollar is broadly weaker as news developments remain mostly positive, boosting sentiment. North American session sees US November inflation; euro likely supported today on short-covering rally. RBI left rates on hold at 8.5%, as expected; IDR rallies after Fitch upgraded it to investment grade.

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Dollar Softer On Spain Auction, Firm Euro Zone PMI Readings

Dollar Softer On Spain Auction, Firm Euro Zone PMI Readings

The dollar is broadly weaker as Spanish auction goes well, euro zone PMIs better than expected. SNB held policy steady with no change to EUR/CHF floor. China, Singapore data help boost sentiment; Hungary reaches deal with banks on CHF loans.

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Dollar Firm As Italy Yields Rise, Euro Zone IP Falls

Dollar Firm As Italy Yields Rise, Euro Zone IP Falls

The dollar is broadly firmer as Italian yields rise at 5-year bond auction, euro zone IP falls.Swiss data weak ahead of SNB meeting tomorrow; Norges Bank seen cutting rates 25 bp. China data gives cover for more PBOC easing; RBA suggests AUD weakness will help cushion economy.

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Men Are from the Feds, Women from State and Local

Men Are from the Feds, Women from State and Local

Here’s some interesting data from the Atlantic that shouldn’t have surprised us, but was an eye opener, nonetheless. The U.S. Federal payrolls are dominated by men and state and local government by women.

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Look for North America to Fade Euro Moves

Look for North America to Fade Euro Moves

The dollar is broadly weaker as sentiment improves in the wake of an agreement on fiscal integration. European officials have struck what appears to be significant agreement; one of the costs is a new split in Europe as the UK and others are not in agreement. UK trade deficits narrows but unlikely to change economic outlook; China’s inflation decelerates.

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Pending EU Summit May Curb Response to ECB

Pending EU Summit May Curb Response to ECB

The dollar is trading slightly firmer ahead of today’s ECB rate decision and tomorrow’s summit. We expect the ECB to cut by 25bps, with a possibility of a 50bps cut; look to fade knee-jerk reaction. Australia’s employment much weaker than expected; Singapore imposes news taxes on homes.

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Two Developments Push Euro Lower in Europe

Two Developments Push Euro Lower in Europe

Asia extended the euro’s recovery, but developments in Europe have seen it surrender the earlier gains and move back toward the lows seen in North America yesterday near $1.3360. The relatively light participation in the ECB’s 84-day dollar auction and signs that even at this late date there are key disagreements among euro zone officials about key issues like private sector participation, EFSF/ESM, and role of IMF seemed to sour the mood. In any event, the euro came off quickly after the results, but this also coincided with conflicting comments about whether the EFSF and ESM would run concurrently as floated yesterday, the role of private sector investors in future sovereign bailouts and the role of the IMF.

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Euro Recovers After S&P Slam

Euro Recovers After S&P Slam

The euro sold off amid the rumors of the S&P decision to put on credit watch 15 euro zone countries. Spared was Greece, in a world of its own, and Cyprus, which was already on credit watch. It sold off further in Asia, but Europe has shrugged it off and, with the help of a monster manufacturing orders report from Germany has fully recovered from the drop that took it to a 4-day low of about $1.3335. Offers are seen in the $1.3430 area now.

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