• A bearish view on Eastern Europe 12 May 2009
• Smoke On Europe’s Eastern Horizon? 10 Jul 2011
• Remittances to Eastern Europe to slow dramatically 24 Mar 2009

• The rough politics of European adjustment 1 Dec 2010
• Consent Needed for Debt Repayments 1 Nov 2011
• Satyajit Das: Defaults Are Needed in Euro Zone 3 Mar 2011

• Risk Appetite Firm as Markets Await ADP 30 Mar 2011
• Dollar Softer As Markets Await Bernanke Speech 27 Aug 2010
• Markets Await China’s Next Move 10 Dec 2010

• Why should central banks cut interest rates? 6 Nov 2008
• The Fed leads a global rate cut by central banks 8 Oct 2008
• Should Central Banks Focus On Core Inflation? 1 Mar 2011

• Eastern European economic growth to crater in 2009 1 Apr 2009
• Ten eastern European countries now looking to IMF for bailouts 9 Jul 2009
• CDS contracts and the implosion of several Eastern European economies 30 Apr 2009

• ECB hikes key rate to 4.25% 3 Jul 2008
• Latest Pressure in Emerging Markets for Rate Hikes in Indonesia 3 Aug 2010
• Brazil Hikes Reserve Requirements, Policy Rate Hike Seen In January 3 Dec 2010

• Euro Advances in Quieter Markets on Short Covering 28 May 2010
• SNL’s alternative Obama-Hu press conference reality 22 Nov 2009
• Hungary Plunges 4 Jun 2010

• Biting The Fiscal Bullet In Poland 14 Jul 2010
• Eurozone Contagion Moves On To France 1 Jun 2010
• Figaro: France will accept the IMF for Greek bailout 24 Mar 2010

• Romania Feels Spain’s Austerity Through Remittances 26 Aug 2010
• Yen Pushes Euro Out Of The Spotlight; Brazil and Singapore Also In View 2 Jun 2010
• Short Euro Liquidation 19 May 2010

• Dollar Strong on Continued Concerns over European Debt 1 Jun 2010
• Ten eastern European countries now looking to IMF for bailouts 9 Jul 2009
• CDS contracts and the implosion of several Eastern European economies 30 Apr 2009

• Spain barely approves austerity 27 May 2010
• Links: 2010-05-12 Spain gets religion on austerity 12 May 2010
• Unemployed Down in Spain but Black Market a Problem for Austerity 2 Jun 2010

• Hussman: Four Things To Look For As A Harbinger of Recession 14 Jun 2010

There is a good deal of speculation in the press at the moment over the tricky issue of whether or not Poland will be able to comply with its agreed deficit-reduction deadline on the basis of the latest budget proposals announced by the government there.

Personally, I tend to agree with those analysts who feel the spending and revenue assumptions being made by the Polish government are rather unrealistic, and that they will this be unable to comply with the terms of the Excess Deficit Procedure as laid down for them by the European Commission: difficult territory this in the “post Greek crisis” world, but it would not be the end of the world were the slippage to be justified. Unfortunately, as I will argue below, I don’t think it is justified, indeed I think it is just the opposite of what sound economic management principles would prescribe in the Polish case, and seems to respond more to the impact of impending political pressures than to the precepts of good policymaking. So I do agree with the consensus here in feeling that Poland needs to do a lot more to reign in the deficit (which means unfortunately spending cuts, since I think raising taxes which will crimp growth and raise inflation is most undesirable at this point), although my reasons for arguing this are actually rather rather different from those that are normally advanced.

• Why I am siding with the Germans on fiscal consolidation 24 Jun 2010

• The FDIC to get credit from banks even while banks restrict lending 22 Sep 2009
• Did joining the eurozone bust Ireland? 2 Jul 2008
• BankUnited goes bust and is replaced by BankUnited 21 May 2009

• Stat of the Day: California now in top ten for highest government default probabilities in the world 12 May 2010
• Stat of the Day: CDS Spreads for Cali, Michigan and Illinois are up and to the right 14 May 2010
• Hungary Plunges 4 Jun 2010

• The U.S. dollar plunges due to quantitative easing 18 Mar 2009
• Hungary cut to a notch above junk by S&P 30 Mar 2009
• Moody’s: Iceland, Latvia and Hungary in “fragile stabilization” 23 Sep 2009

• High yield is back in business in Europe 26 Oct 2009
• Rand bounces back 17 Feb 2010
• Europe on the ropes 2 Mar 2009

• US Dollar Surrenders Recent Gains on Hope that the Greek Aid Package Will be Activated within Days 30 Apr 2010
• EU planning 200 billion euro package for Eastern Europe 24 Feb 2009
• Euro Bounces On Greek News, Now Looks Ahead To ECB Meeting 3 Mar 2010

• Bush Administration turns the TARP over to Obama 17 Nov 2008
• A brief look at the Asset-Based Economy at economic turns 7 Oct 2009
• WaMu: Mr. Smith goes to Washington and turns predatory 26 Oct 2009

• New Crisis Threatens Healthy Banks 23 Jun 2008
• Swiss citizens think a large Swiss bank will fail 16 Apr 2009
• Austrian banks have emerging-market financial exposure that is 70% of GDP 5 Jan 2009

• UBS does not see the need for panic over Eastern Europe 18 Feb 2009
• Seven more bank failures brings total to 64 24 Jul 2009
• Bloomberg talks about the meltdown in Eastern Europe 17 Feb 2009

• Next Stop: US sovereign debt downgrade 16 Jul 2008
• Macro Maven: Expect a long difficult recession 13 Dec 2008
• Irish sovereign debt interest rate spreads 31 Oct 2008

• Who is the next Iceland? 6 Jan 2009
• Violence erupts in Latvia 13 Jan 2009
• Estonia and Latvia: headed for the rails 13 Aug 2008

• Baltics: Fitch downgrade and more downgrades to come 8 Apr 2009
• Are the Baltics the new Argentina? 30 Jul 2008
• Baltics: Violence from an Argentina-style collapse 16 Jan 2009

• Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund loses $125 billion 15 Jan 2009
• What if a large US regional bank goes to the wall? 28 Jul 2008
• Large US bank failure coming 19 Aug 2008

• CDS contracts and the implosion of several Eastern European economies 30 Apr 2009
• Eastern European economic growth to crater in 2009 1 Apr 2009
• A shift to Eastern Europe and emerging markets too 21 Oct 2008

• Bloomberg talks Eastern Europe as Latvia downgraded 25 Feb 2009
• Video: The Wall Street Journal talks about Eastern Europe 19 Feb 2009
• UBS does not see the need for panic over Eastern Europe 18 Feb 2009

• Swiss citizens think a large Swiss bank will fail 16 Apr 2009
• When will Sterling hit Euro parity? 30 Dec 2008
• The Swiss get on the QE2 12 Mar 2009

• Marc Faber: Dr. Doom goes bullish 7 Mar 2009
• Marc Faber on CNBC: bearish on oil and India 23 Jun 2008
• CDS contracts and the implosion of several Eastern European economies 30 Apr 2009

• Remittances to Eastern Europe to slow dramatically 24 Mar 2009
• UBS does not see the need for panic over Eastern Europe 18 Feb 2009
• Bloomberg talks Eastern Europe as Latvia downgraded 25 Feb 2009

• Eastern European economic growth to crater in 2009 1 Apr 2009
• Bloomberg talks Eastern Europe as Latvia downgraded 25 Feb 2009
• UBS does not see the need for panic over Eastern Europe 18 Feb 2009