Post Tagged with: "Eastern Europe"
Time Unlikely To Be A Healer For Portugal’s Economy
Despite comparisons with Greece, Portugal is not in entirely the same situation, at least not yet it isn’t. Crucially, Portugal is currently under no obligation to deal with international or national creditors to increasing government debt issuance courtesy of joint aid programme administered by the EU and the IMF. So far so good. Portugal has time and while I am as certain as an economist can be that the country will need debt restructuring, the time between here and there may still prove crucial
Staring Into The Ukrainian Economic And Political Abyss
By Edward Hugh It’s been a long time now since Paul Krugman spoke of the Ukraine economy epitomising the arrival of what he then termed the “second great depression“, and its been an even longer long time since we lay awake at night dreaming about the coming conquests of the Orange Revolution. It’s also been
Protest and Nationalism in Eastern Europe
Since the possibility of further social tensions leading to nationalism is something on my radar screen, I thought I would post these videos from Euronews. In a good economy, these issues are nothing to get concerned about. But in a bad economy, especially one wracked by austerity and unemployment, tensions will have political consequences
Last Days Of Pompeii?
What is becoming clearer to almost everyone is that this is now no longer simply a Euro periphery sovereign debt crisis. It has become a full blown crisis of confidence in the Euro itself
Adjustment Needed Now
By Claus Vistesen (see source of image at end of post) I have recently spent a few days in New York talking to clients as well as sneaking in a bit of marathon watching and a visit to the Guggenheim museum. Flying across the big pond also means that there is plenty of time to
Markets Await Cues From the Fed
Market sentiment modestly improves after most Asian stocks fall ; EFSF to delay €3bln bond sale. Greek cabinet endorsed referendum plan overnight; aims to win Friday’s confidence vote. FOMC unlikely to announce further asset purchases, forecast updates; soft PMIs in
EMEA central banks have moved into dovish mode
In the EMEA space, central banks from Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, and Turkey all meet next week. We don’t see any change from these four central banks and in general we believe EM central banks have moved into dovish wait-and-see mode for now, with the obvious exception of Brazil and Turkey, who have both cut, and RBI, who just hiked 25 bp for purely domestic reasons
Eastern European Growth – Coming Rapidly Off The Boil?
The latest round of EU GDP data, brought to light a reality which many who have been closely following the economies of Eastern Europe already suspected: that the heavily export dependent economies in the region would almost inevitably be dragged down by the rapid slowdown in Europe’s principal economic motor, the German economy
Smoke On Europe’s Eastern Horizon?
Edward Hugh writes of an unstable combination which make the countries in Eastern Europe highly vulnerable to both a renewed deterioration in sentiment and an external economic slowdown of the sort we could see following a disorderly Greek default, and yet markets in general seems to be shrugging off the risk as almost non existent
BELLS in Hell that Don’t Go Ting-a-Ling-a-Ling
The BELLS are a group of four countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) who in their wisdom decided to adopt and then stick “come hell or high water” to a currency peg with to Euro. Thus was opened one of the more interesting and lively chapters in modern macroeconomic debate
Oil Prices and Rate Hikes Favor Latam FX Over Asia and EMEA
By Win Thin Malaysia central bank surprised the markets by hiking the statutory reserve requirement 100 bp bp while leaving policy rates unchanged at 2.75%. The bank noted that “While the stance of monetary policy is expected to remain supportive of growth, the degree of monetary accommodation may be reviewed given the sustained growth in
Hungary Gives Markets A Dose Of Reality, Go Short HUF
by Win Thin Markets have given a big thumbs down to the austerity measures announced by Hungary this week, with the forint and foreign currency bonds giving up some of their recent gains. The government is still trying to go it alone without a new IMF program, which expires this month. Improving EM sentiment has