Post Tagged with: "double dip"
The Massendowngrade Effect
Perhaps the main point to take to heart from the events of the last week is the way the recent ECB liquidity measures have apparently been able to stabilise the debt crisis, at least for the time being, even while it is not clear that they will have the same success stabilising the deterioration in the respective real economies
Germany is in recession already with the rest of the euro zone
The eurozone is in a recession right now. And it is the banking sector where downside risk lies. Will the US also double dip? What about China’s faltering housing and stock markets
Footnote 2011: Being cautiously optimistic was right
In January, I wrote my prognosis for 2011. The title was “Cautiously Optimistic Into 2011″. I intend to write another post like this early in 2012 with asset allocation and market calls for the new newsletter. But right now I just want to review the basic outlook I presented.
I had seven major conclusions. Here’s what I said and how well it has stacked up
More on how post credit bubble fiscal austerity leads to depression
Britain’s economy is a shambles as the negative impact of austerity has been made plain. Now, mind you, it was already clear from a leaked Greek bailout document that expansionary fiscal consolidation has failed in Greece. But now the OECD’s double dip warning for Britain should make this plain to all
Euro Punched Lower by Series of Jabs
What was to be a subdued period in the markets is turning into a rout. There have been a number of poor developments that have sent the US dollar broadly higher and has weighed on the highly correlated risk assets, equities, emerging market and commodities
PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian: US recession odds are 50%
Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian told Bloomberg TV’s Betty Liu and Dominic Chu this morning that U.S. economic conditions are “terrifying” as the nation struggles to recover from recession. El-Erian also said the odds of the U.S. returning to recession are as high as 50%
Euro Crisis At A Tipping Point?
The European sovereign debt crisis is rapidly approaching what could be a significant tipping point as it threatens to spread to the heart of Europe. In recent days Italian 10-year bond yields have soared to 7.22% and today Spain was forced to pay 6.975% at its auction. Even French 10-year yields have climbed to 3.71%, its widest spread over German bond yields since the Euro Zone was started. All of this has happened despite large ECB purchases of periphery country bonds over the last few months and the installation of technocratic governments in Greece and Italy.
The fear has now spread to the heart of Europe
ECRI: The US is still headed for recession
The economic data in the US has been somewhat better of late but the ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan argues that this is meaningless; you can’t repeal the business cycle. His view is that the indicators pointing to an end of cycle slowing into double dip are too well advanced for any policy response to have an appreciable impact
Is it Over Yet?
It was telling that, just as the ECRI and other notable research outfits decided to push the recession button on the US economy, the data flow became notably more positive. This could be a sign of the times, that the cycle is just too volatile for even capable analysts to call or it could simply be a blip in otherwise fundamental economic weakness that is here to stay for now. I have been working with and building economic models for a while and all I can say is that they are seldom 100% right and the margin of error is always there when analysts make calls. The key is your ability to make calls which are transparent and add value for decision makers when they are made
Chaney says ‘recession has already started’ in Europe and talks EuroTARP
Eric Chaney, former French Treasury official and former Chief European Economist at Morgan Stanley is the present Chief Economist at AXA. He tells Bloomberg television’s Maryam Nemazee that the banking crisis in Europe is also a credit crunch. Non-financial businesses are trying to ensure liquidity. So they have cut production to accumulate the cash they cannot get through credit channels
Is Europe Sliding Into a Double-Dip Recession?
The answer is it depends who you ask. The New York Times put the question to five of us and our answers varied considerably. If there was any overlap in answers I would say it was our general agreement that the euro zone periphery will have/is having a double-dip recession and that the euro zone core will have a less pronounced slowdown. What I would highlight from my piece is not the macro economy though. It’s the banks