• Nationwide Says British House Prices May Fall on Job Losses – Bloomberg.com
• Investors ask Goldman to be less greedy: report | Reuters
• BBC News – Tobacco firm Philip Morris to pay out $300m in damages
• Susan Boyle Makes Amazon History
• Execution Dignity – Robin Hanson
• Is the Fed Creating New Bubbles? – BusinessWeek
• Palinoia – Megan McArdle
• Liz Pulliam Weston – Bankruptcy, foreclosure, mortgage payments and debt – MSN Money
• Oprah Ends Talk Show: Twitter Erupts with 8,000 Tweets Per Hour
• How to tackle a deficit | Free exchange | Economist.com
• Department store sales dive by 10.5% | The Japan Times Online
• Just 62.5% of ‘10 university grads offered jobs next spring: survey | The Japan Times Online (It’s not just in California)
• Scientists crack corn code: Reference genome of maize, most important US crop (Get ready for cloned and seriously genetically-modified food)
• Lyme disease vaccine? Tick saliva found to protect mice from Lyme disease
• UK jobless ‘could hit 9.5% by 2011′ – Independent.ie
• Blindness causes structural brain changes, implying brain can re-organize itself to adapt
• Thierry Henry handball prompts Irish justice minister to demand replay | Football | guardian.co.uk (Hand of god worthy)

Distraction of the Day: California’s state universities jack up in-state tuition 32%

Related posts:

• News from around the web: 2009-10-29
• News from around the web: 2009-07-31
• Links: 2009-07-04
• News from around the web: 2009-08-19
• News from around the web: 2009-09-25

• The Rise and Fall of Empires – Paul Kedrosky (cool visual)
• FT Alphaville – A Minskian roadmap to the next gold mania
• At Failed Banks, Post-Mortems Disclose Excessive, Yet Obvious, Risk – NYTimes.com
• Economic Perspectives from Kansas City: Should America Kowtow to China?
• FT.com – Fears of China property bubble
• The Ayn Rand revival | Jennifer Abel | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk
• BBC News – Will Ferrell named ‘most overpaid film star’
• Obama’s Vietnam syndrome | The Japan Times Online
• FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Palin Calculus: A Rejoinder
• FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 10 Reasons That Sarah Palin Could Win the Republican Nomination
• FT Alphaville – The return of capital controls, Indonesia edition
• Continuity You Can Believe In? (Voices for and against Obama’s econ policy.)
• oftwominds: The Fantasy of an Export-Led Recovery
• Paulson on Bank of America: Stock Could ‘Almost Double’ – MarketBeat – WSJ (He likes Citi too.)
• California faces a projected deficit of $21 billion — latimes.com
• The Financial Regulatory Chess Game, Arnold Kling | EconLog

Distraction of the Day: This cow thinks he is a dog

Related posts:

• Links: 2009-01-09
• Links: 2009-11-13
• News round-up: 30 Sep 2008
• Links: 2009-07-16
• Links: 2009-03-14

• Josh Reviews Everything: And then he took his pants off. Again.
• frontline: a class divided: watch the program | PBS
• In Case Someone Says You Couldnt See This Coming – Yves Smith
• U.S. conservatives: Obama bowed too deeply to Emperor | The Japan Times Online
• Bankruptcy Experts Challenge Obama’s ‘Too Big To Fail’ Plans – Deal Journal – WSJ
• The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary stimulus in depressions | vox
• Chance of Great Depression Now 5%… – Brad DeLong
• Slashdot Your Rights Online Story | Chinese Court Rules Microsoft Violated IP Rights
• Cassandra Does Tokyo: Balderdash (n) – fiddle-faddle, piffle (trivial nonsense), hokum
• Goldman Sachs, Buffett Said to Plan Aid for Small Businesses – Bloomberg.com
• Geithner in the doghouse over AIG debacle | guardian.co.uk
• UK house prices: peak for affordability ‘now over’ – Telegraph
• Buffett’s Berkshire Discloses Exxon, Nestle Stakes – Bloomberg.com

Distraction of the Day: US razing dams to restore waterways

Related posts:

• Links: 2009-04-08 – European edition
• News from around the web: 2009-07-29
• News from around the web: 2009-11-08
• News from around the web: 2009-11-05
• Links: 2009-03-02

• Economist’s View: "China and the American Jobs Machine" (And don’t fall into the Blame Asia Meme http://bit.ly/pseaY)
• 买黄金! | egghat’s blog (This German post says that owning gold was illegal in China six years ago. Now the message to get into gold is everywhere there.)
• Toddlers insensitive to fear go on to commit crimes – New Scientist
• Lack of Open Seats Could Complicate GOP Math – Roll Call
• General Electric Pursues Pot of Government Stimulus Gold – WSJ.com
• How To Prevent the Next Financial Crisis – CBS MoneyWatch.com
• The one thing depleting faster than oil is the credibility of those measuring it
• Get tough with China how? | Free exchange | Economist.com
• Pension deficits in Britain underestimated by £268bn – Telegraph
• FT Alphaville – Bringing it back on balance sheet, by the numbers (Will this make return on assets lower?)
• A Minsky Recovery? – Arnold Kling | EconLog
• Canadian homes sales hit record high; outlook upgraded
• You’re Backing Up Your Data the Wrong Way – Lifehacker
• Digital Domain – Apple Wouldn’t Risk Its Cool Over an Ad Gimmick, Would It? – NYTimes.com
• U.K. Home Sellers Cut Asking Prices 1.6% in November – Bloomberg.com (Is this a sign of seasonal weakness or more?)
• Capital One, Discover credit card defaults lower

Distraction of the Day: People are stealing everywhere

It reminds me of this post: If you can’t afford food, steal it: lessons from Japan

Related posts:

• Links: 2009-03-23
• Links: 2009-03-28
• Links: 2009-03-26
• News from around the web: 2009-09-10
• Links: 2009-10-28

• Bailed-out Anglo needs €5.7bn cash but EC eyes wind-down – Independent.ie
• Colts 35, Patriots 34 – Colts Pull Off Improbable Win as Patriots’ Gamble Backfires – NYTimes.com
• Paul Krugman – World Out of Balance – NYTimes.com
• Pay limits hamper BofA chief search: report
• Inflationary armageddon? Not yet, but come 2011 it’s another story – Roger Bootle
• FT.com – Gold output set for decline in long term
• China Lambastes Dollar “Carry Trade,” Diverting Attention from Its Currency Manipulation – Yves Smith
• Pay People to Work Shorter Hours – Dean Baker (If you give business tax credits to have people work shorter hours, eventually productivity gains hit a wall and new employees must be hired. This is a stop-gap)
• PBGC Is Not Only Underwater, It’s Drowning — John Lounsbury
• Diane Chu: China – The Sleeping Lion Awakened
• Interfluidity :: Discretion and financial regulation
• How the tax code encourages debt : James Surowiecki – The New Yorker
• FT Alphaville – The not-so-small small bank CRE problem

Distraction of the Day: Would you buy a battery-pack heated jacket?

Related posts:

• News from around the web: 2009-08-08
• News from around the web: 2009-09-06
• New nightly news from around the web: 2009-07-29
• News from around the web: 2009-09-22
• News from around the web: 2009-08-25

• Japan Economy Accelerates, Reducing Danger of Renewed Recession – Bloomberg.com
• Economist’s View: Fed Watch: Should the Fed Be Doing More?
• China rounds on U.S. rates as global economic risk
• The Best F**king Book About the Financial Crisis?
• Richard Thaler – At Swoopo.com, a Price for the Thrill of the Auction – NYTimes.com
• Economist’s View: "The Illusion of Improving Global Imbalances"
• Citi Sells Stake in Japanese Call Center to Bain Capital – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com  (more asset sales.)
• China has now become the biggest risk to the world economy – Telegraph
• Just How Much Of A Eurozone Rebound Really Was There In Q3? | Edward Hugh (French growth looks the best.)
• The World’s Worst Trader? – Barrons.com

Distraction of the Day: Baby trapped in running washing machine

Related posts:

• Links: 2009-02-20
• Links: 2009-01-05
• News from around the web: 2009-08-19
• Links: 2009-02-19
• Midday Reading: 2009-08-10

• Deluge of Pleas to Spare Oreo, Dog Thrown Off Roof – City Room Blog – NYTimes.com
• Bob Herbert – A Recovery for Some – NYTimes.com
• Bair calls U.S. bank bailout not a good thing | Reuters
• It’s the stupidity economy – Paul Krugman Blog – NYTimes.com
• Picture du Jour: Dow rally in perspective – Prieur du Plessis
• BBC NEWS | Business | Nosy friends scan Norwegian tax secrets
• Prolonged deflation to continue here until 2011 as prices fall 6pc – Independent.ie
• A Post-Mortem on the Opel Deal – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com
• Arrogant Fed hasn’t learned a thing – MSN Money
• China-India tensions rising | The Japan Times Online
• Employment Policy – Angry Bear
• Sarah Palin "Going Rogue": Takes Aim At McCain Campaign, Steve Schmidt
• Bidding Wars Resume – NYTimes.com
• President Obama, deficit terrorism is not the answer! – Marshall Auerback
• Mish: Obama Wants Spending Cuts, He Should Start With Military
• The Europeanization Of America – Bruce Bartlett
• The FHA Is Broke — John Lounsbury
• Surprise (Not): Madoff’s Results Were Generated Via a Randomizer
• House price drop indicates ‘double-dip’ for property market | Money | guardian.co.uk
• 2012 movie is truly disastrous – New Scientist
• The Associated Press: Obama eyes domestic spending freeze
• Dell Jumps on Android Bandwagon With Mini 3 Smartphone
• FDIC Asks Banks for $45Bn of Prepaid Assessments : HousingWire
• EconomPic: Trade Deficit Jumps in September (This can only mean lower savings, all else equal.)
• Why We Need an Individual Mandate for Health Insurance – CBS MoneyWatch.com

Distraction of the Day: Man calls 911 looking for sex (honorable Darwin Award?)

Related posts:

• News from around the web: 2009-11-19
• News from around the web: 2009-08-05
• News from around the web: 2009-09-01
• News from around the web: 2009-09-10
• News from around the web: 2009-10-11

• FT.com – Lloyds raises new capital target as bondholders warm to CoCos (sounds like good investor appetite for Lloyd’s)
• FT.com – Dollar knocked by China renminbi hints (Chinese showing they could revalue just before Obama arrives)
• Goldman’s Complete Presentation And Transcript From The Merrill Lynch Financial Services Conference | zero hedge
• Intel Pays A.M.D. $1.25 Billion to Settle Disputes – NYTimes.com
• From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons
• Household savings rose as recession took hold – Independent.ie
• How Obama Can Bounce Back » Eliot Spitzer
• Boom or Bust Leaves Bankers With Bum Choices: Caroline Baum – Bloomberg.com
• Tom Gregory: The Lloyd¹s Prayer
• BBC NEWS | Business | Russian bank to cut 67,000 jobs (These guys were to be part-owner of Opel)
• Is China headed toward collapse? – Eamon Javers – POLITICO.com
• Unchecked and Unbalanced Watch, Arnold Kling | EconLog (Also see Kay and Thoma’s cited links.)
• oftwominds: Bubbles, Inflation and Overcapacity
• Will There Be a ‘New Normal’ For Unemployment? – Mark Thoma
• Rolfe Winkler: Chart of the Day: The Dow priced in gold (This is an ugly chart)
• BBC NEWS | Special Reports | Free market flawed, says survey
• Saudis Ditch NYMEX WTI – A Global Paradigm Shift — Dian Chu

Distraction of the Day: The girl who can’t stop sneezing

Related posts:

• News from around the web: 2009-10-16
• News round-up: 15 Aug 2008 – blog edition
• News from around the web: 2009-07-25
• News from around the web: 2009-11-03
• News from around the web: 2009-10-30

• Bear Juror Says U.S. Case So Weak She’d Invest With Defendants – Bloomberg.com
• Russia Warns of Gas Crisis as Ukraine Faces Financial Turmoil – Bloomberg.com
• Staatsbank HRE verliert 1,7 Milliarden Euro – Spiegel Online
• WNYC – The Brian Lehrer Show: Tweeting Tragedy (November 10, 2009) (This is about tweets at Fort Hood.)
• Republicans Edge Ahead of Democrats in 2010 Vote
• Google Navigation hacked onto T-Mobile G1
• Japan Machine Orders Rise More Than Expected; Recovery May Last – Bloomberg.com
• Google Offers A 16 Terabyte Cloud Drive For $4,096 A Year
• Economist’s View: "The Fed Is Already Transparent" (More from Frederic Mishkin)
• Property Values – What You Get for … $800,000 – NYTimes.com
• International Real Estate – House Hunting in … South Africa – NYTimes.com
• FT.com – BayernLB faces loss on Austrian unit
• Congress to miss health care deadline, key senator says – CNN.com
• FT.com – Jeffrey Sachs – Obama has lost his way on jobs
• Drunk Woman Falls Onto Subway Tracks and Survives Near Miss [Video]
• TweetMeme Leaderboard – Top 100 Twitter News Sources
• Opel-Poker: Magna fordert von GM Millionen zurück – SPIEGEL ONLINE
• Stop Paying for Windows Security; Microsoft’s Security Tools Are Good Enough – Lifehacker
• El precio de los pisos modera su caída hasta el 74 interanual en octubre
• BBC NEWS | Business | Bear Stearns ex-managers cleared
• A Morgan Stanley star falls in China | Reuters
• Slashdot | Glenn Beck Loses Dispute Over Parody Domain
• FT.com – Concerns at rise in JGB yields (The video explains the concerns well.)
• Attention Lloyd Blankfein: The Public Purpose of Banking – Marshall Auerback
• 100,000 DROIDS And Counting | Android Phone Fans
• Andy Xie: Why China and Japan Need an East Asia Bloc
• Too Big To Fail – self-evident

Distraction of the Day: World’s dirtiest footballer?

Related posts:

• News from around the web: 2009-10-14
• News from around the web: 2009-09-21
• Links: 2009-07-17
• News from around the web: 2009-10-11
• News round-up: 30 Jul 2008

I am feeling fairly ill so posting will be light today. Hopefully, I will back in shape tomorrow.

• VIDEO: Former Brit Ambassador Craig Murray Says UK and USA Sent Prisoners to Uzbekistan for Torture Part 1 Patrick J. Buchanan

  Chilling. Must-see video

• Former UK Ambassador: CIA Sent People To Be ‘Raped With Broken Bottles’ « Patrick J. Buchanan
• Federal Reserve Says Judge Erred in Requiring Bank Disclosure – Bloomberg.com
• FT.com | Willem Buiter’s Maverecon | Gold – a six thousand year-old bubble

  "Because to a reasonable first approximation gold has no intrinsic value as a consumption good or a producer good, it is an example of what I call a fiat (physical) commodity. You will be familiar with fiat currency. Unlike what Wikipedia says on the subject, the essence of fiat money is not that it is money declared by a government to be legal tender. It need not derive its value from the government demanding it in payment of taxes or insisting it should be accepted within the national jurisdiction in settlement of debt. Instead the defining property of fiat money is that it has no intrinsic value and derives any value it has only from the shared belief by a sufficient number of economic actors that it has that value."

• Mirror closes final salary pension plan to existing members – Telegraph
• Public Pensions Face Ugly Choices – Forbes.com
• Editorial – Jobless Recovery – NYTimes.com
• Economists Seek to Cure a Defect in National Data – NYTimes.com

  I have been invited to this event. Not sure yet if I can attend. But let’s applaud the effort to overall the government’s statistics.

• FT.com – Clive Crook – Obama has lost sight of the centre
• For brave investors, Zimbabwe could be the ultimate turnaround story – Telegraph
• 50 Apps For New Droid Owners | Android Phone Fans
• Gold Climbs to Record as Weaker Dollar Boosts Investment Demand – Bloomberg.com
• Sir Alex Ferguson to avoid FA charge for Chelsea referee comments |Football |guardian.co.uk

  Sir Alex is a menace and should face FA charges for this.

• Advanta files for bankruptcy protection | Reuters
• Cambridge Runs Amok – Forbes.com
• Abschluss-Doku des gescheiterten Opel-Verkaufs Blick Log
• The Becker-Posner Blog: Productivity and Unemployment–Posner

  Productivity gains that result from job cuts and recession are not the same as those that result from technological improvements.

• I’m doing ‘God’s work’. Meet Mr Goldman Sachs – Times Online
• Lieberman Says Again He’ll Join Filibuster — Political Wire
• Short Seller: Dump Munis – Current Yield – Tom Sullivan – Barrons.com
• The Economics of Trust – Forbes.com
• Frank Rich- The Night They Drove the Tea Partiers Down – NYTimes.com
• Strong US recovery biggest threat to Australia

  ASK economic guru David Hale about the worst risk facing Australia and you will get a surprising answer. ”It’s a really strong United States recovery,” he said. ”The V-shape that some people are talking about. It would force the Fed to push up rates quite quickly in the second half of next year, not from zero to 1 per cent, but from zero to 2 or 3; it would reverse the big rally in the Australian dollar and it might provoke a big global stock market correction.”

• FSA probe HBOS information accuracy – Independent.ie
• Hitlers barndomshjem til salgs for 18,5 mill. kr. | Eiendom Utenriks | E24

Distraction of the Day: Man drives car into courthouse

Related posts:

• Links: 2009-01-25
• News from around the web: 2009-11-05
• News round-up: 13 Oct 2008
• News round-up: 30 Jul 2008
• Links: 2009-02-21

This is pretty funny. Hat Tip Rob Johnson and New Deal 2.0.

Source

Money performed by Cypress Hill – Answers.com

What does "dollar, dollar bill, y’all" mean? – Yahoo! Answers

Related posts:

• Simon Johnson: Too big to fail is “too big to exist”
• Application for the Federal Bail Out Program, 2008-2009
• Dilbert on the asset-based economy
• Bank of America cuts its dividend
• Saturday Night Live Grades the Stress Tests

Related posts:

• News from around the web: 2009-07-27
• News from around the web: 2009-10-11
• News from around the web: 2009-07-31
• Links: 2009-01-19 – banks and bloggers
• News from around the web: 2009-11-16

This is classic.

Related posts:

• Jon Stewart: His Gaffe-in is great comic relief
• Wassup 2008
• Quote of the Day: Jim Bunning
• Jon Stewart takes on Fox News
• The experience canard

Be sure to see William Shatner’s poetic reading of Levi Johnston’s tweets below. Pretty funny.

Also see: News from around the web: 2009-07-29 where Shatner reads Palin Poetry.

Related posts:

• News from around the web: 2009-07-29
• News from around the web: 2009-10-22
• News from around the web: 2009-10-13
• News from around the web: 2009-11-18
• News from around the web: 2009-08-03

I was interviewed on the BBC last night about the GM/Opel/Vauxhall deal. I am waiting for video before posting any more about it.  My general feeling, however is GM’s backing out is being driven by reflation as GM no longer needs to sell Opel/Vauxhall in this economic environment. Quite frankly, I think it is a bit premature to think reflation has been successful.  But, GM has Neelie Kroes breathing down its neck.  It had to act.

• GMAC’s Mortgage Unit Loses $747M in Q309 : HousingWire

  Remind me, why are taxpayers propping them up?

• Should Jon Corzine Take Over Bank Of America? – Dealbreaker

  He IS out of a job.

• EconomPic: ISM Services Slowly Expanding

  Dichotomy with manufacturing suggests that underlying demand is weak.

• Profit `Not Satanic,’ Barclays Says, After Goldman Invokes Jesus – Bloomberg.com

  Interesting.

• Barclays Chief: Jesus Loves Bonuses – Dealbreaker

  Sure he does. Keep telling yourself that. I am NOT for capping pay, but this is not a good quote.

• Bank of Ireland losses near €1bn – Independent.ie

  More bad news in Ireland

• Top finance blogs – Prieur du Plessis

  We are in the group. And I recommend Prieur’s site very highly.

• Top earning dead celebrities 2009

  Yves Saint Laurent gets top billing. MJ is only third.

• Michael J. Panzner: Treasury Officials Meet With Financial Bloggers

  More on econobloggers at Treasury

• Curious Meeting at Treasury Department – Yves Smith

  Must read account of Treasury’s cultivation of econobloggers

• FT.com | Money Supply | The Fed and its “extended period” language

  More on the FOMC

• The Fed Thoughtfully Strokes Its Beard, Flaps Its Gums – Annaly Salvos

  Hat tip Scott. Will the Fed get rid of ‘extended period’ in its statement?

• AT&T to Verizon: “There’s a Lawsuit for That”

  Verizon is saying AT&T has terrible 3G coverage. A&T is livid.

• VIDEO: What the Military Industrial Complex Does Not Want You to Know: The History of Iran « Patrick J. Buchanan

  A historically accurate depiction of the last 56 years in Iran.

• Profile: Neelie Kroes, EU competition commissioner

  "The EU competition commissioner forcing through the radical break-up of Britain’s banking system"

• Rising factory orders bolster recovery prospects | Reuters

  More evidence of a manufacturing recovery.

• FT.com – Sony Ericsson unveils Android-powered phone

  Google is getting serious play here. Android has arrived.

• House prices rise by 1.2%, says Halifax

  Better mth to mth than Nationwide but worse yr-on-yr.

• Rolfe Winkler – Burlington…not so Buffett-like

  This analysis says Burlington Northern is not a good deal.

• Norwegian Wood – Edward Hugh

  A comprehensive overview of the Norwegian economy after the rate rise

Distraction of the Day: Defining Adultery in the Age of Alzheimer’s

Of Love and Alzheimer’s – WSJ

Related posts:

• News from around the web: 2009-10-20
• Links: 2009-05-13
• Links: 2009-03-16 – blogger edition
• Links: 2009-08-15 blogger edition
• News from around the web: 2009-10-03

I will be on Canada’s BNN TV at noonish talking about finance: Banks and Buffett. It will be a casual discussion with the moderators Howard Green and Andrea Mandel-Campbell and one other guest, Brian Milner of the Globe & Mail.

Below are today’s links. Enjoy.

• Hillary’s Ill Will Tour – Patrick J. Buchanan’s website

  This is not the image we want to project. The author suggests Clinton is "John Bolton in a dress?" Interesting.

• FT Alphaville – China is ‘the most obvious area of concern’, Fitch says

  via a Reuters chat room

• Executive pensions rose in ‘08 even as stocks fell: report | Reuters

  Pensions rose 19 percent for top execs. Nice one. While ordinary Americans 401(K) got decimated, you get this.

• FT.com – Gold nears record high on India purchase

  200 tonnes from the IMF.

• RBS and Lloyds break-up: the main points – Telegraph

  Must-read to get overview of what is planned

• UBS’s Third Quarter Results Disappoint – MarketBeat – WSJ

  "the flagship private banking arm is what really missed forecasts"

• RBS Surpasses Citigroup as World’s Costliest Banking Bailout – Bloomberg.com
• Animal House Rules: Treasury Proposes to Use DOUBLE SECRET PROBATION – Bill Black

  Hilarious but sad

• Inside the Motorola Droid, an iPhone likeness | Nanotech – CNET News

  Another positive review of the Droid.

• FT.com – Ackermann hits at split-up of banks

  He calls effort “totally misguided”

• Global protocol could limit Sub-Saharan land grab

  "limit aggressive moves by China, South Korea and Gulf states"

• Obama’s latest use of "secrecy" to shield presidential lawbreaking – Glen Greenwald

  More of the same

• Economist’s View: "Half of US Children — and Most Black Children — Will Use Food Stamps"

  The title says it all

• RBS to cut 3,700 branch jobs

  "EU-imposed restructuring to be outlined tomorrow"

Distraction of the Day: Forklift operator causes $100,000 in booze to come crashing down. He’s OK though.

Related posts:

• Links: 2009-11-02
• News from around the web: 2009-10-30
• Links: 2009-10-21
• Nighttime reading: 2009-08-02
• News from around the web: 2009-11-09

• White House Will Not Be Told By The AP How Many Jobs The Stimulus Has Created – Dealbreaker

  Funny.

• Industrial output up 1.4% last month | The Japan Times Online

  More bullish data in Japan.

• What Exactly Is Going On In Finland? – Edward Hugh

  As comprehensive a review as any out there.

• Why three buses come at once, and how to avoid it – New Scientist

  You kind of suspected this.

• FT.com / Martin Wolf – How mistaken ideas helped to bring the economy down

  Good look at Andrew Smithers.

• FT.com – Lloyds seeks to raise £21bn

  Investors must think worst is over

• Wal-Mart starts selling coffins

  Good for business, not PR

• Droid vs iPhone: The Comparison Chart [PIC]

  Best smartphone chart yet

• It’s Alive, It’s ALIVE, It’s ALLLIIIIVVVE!

  Funny GDP-themed ode to Gene Wilder

• FT Alphaville – Let them eat equity tranches – for real

  ‘Skin in the game’ is a first step on securitization

Distraction of the Day: Share a Grave With a Stranger? Double Decker graves in London

Related posts:

• Links: 2009-11-02
• News from around the web: 2009-07-31
• News from around the web: 2009-11-14
• News from around the web: 2009-11-12
• News from around the web: 2009-10-10

This is a guest post from our newest contributor, Charles D. Bull.

Greetings Writedowners,

Ed has gone to bed already. This is Charles D. Bull speaking.

You know, my wife told me yesterday that the local shopping area already has the Christmas tree up and is all geared up to drum up holiday season sales.  Shoppers were out, the sun was shining and the place was really looking pretty, she said. It warmed my heart. I was so excited for the holidays. I couldn’t wait.

Then, I wake up this morning and along comes this guy, what’s his name, David Rosenberg — with his tales of doom and gloom like the Grinch who stole Christmas. Forget about Nouriel Roubini, this guy makes him look like Mary Poppins.

Check this out:

BULL RUN MAY BE REVERSING
The S&P 500 is riding a four-day losing streak. And while we have seen these corrections turn around before during this massive bear market rally that started last March, the difference this time is that the uptrend line from the lows has been violated across a fairly broad front, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. When trend lines get violated, and when this happens on high volume, it usually, though not always, signals something big.
So many people are deluding themselves that we have some sort of durable recovery on our hands and yet consumer confidence, at 47.7 in October, is unbelievable — the lowest this every got in the 2001 recession, which included the 9-11 terrorist attacks, was 84.9. Think about that for a second. If the equity market is catching on to the view that we could be in for some slowing in the data, then a significant correction after a 60% surge is very likely. This is a time to be raising cash if you haven’t done so already — valuation, technicals, fund flows and fundamentals at this juncture are all near-term obstacles.

In terms of valuation, we said yesterday that the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 on a normalized 10-year basis is 20x and the long-turn norm is 16x. Just to go back to the norm, let alone compress to a level commensurate with an unusually high level of economic and financial uncertainty, would suggest that we would see the S&P correct down towards 875.

ONLY ECONOMISTS SEE THE RECESSION AS BEING OVER
The man on the street sees it a little differently, perhaps less enthused by the fact that a lower rate of inventory destocking is arithmetically underpinning GDP growth at this time. Put simply, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll just found that 58% of the public believe the economic recession still has a ways to go — and that is up from 52% in September and means that the private investor, unlike the hedge fund manager, is not interested in adding risk to the portfolio even after a 60% surge in the equity market.

Only 29% of those polled believe the economy has hit bottom — imagine having that psychology with nearly zero interest rates, a bloated Fed balance sheet and unprecedented fiscal deficits (poll was taken from October 23-25). Nearly two in three (64%) said the rally in the stock market (still a bear market rally — not the onset of a new bull market) has not swayed their view (or ours for that matter). There is going to be some very tough slogging ahead as far as the economy is concerned.

OK. Enough already. I think Dave needs to take a few happy pills.  Dave, did you see that rally today? Dow up 200. S&P up 23. Now, that’s what a bull market rally looks like, my friends: stocks way up, bonds way down, lower dollar, lower gold prices.  That’s what I’m talking about!

As for you shorts out there, you’re probably grabbing your ankles, crying “thank you, sir. May I have another?” Serves you right. In the ‘real’ America, we’re doing just fine, thank you.

Stop listening to those clowns Ed Harrison and Marshall Auerback, writing here about depressions and pulling the rug from under our trusted banks. Earth to Ed: we are going into a V-shaped r-e-c-o-v-e-r-y, not depression. Our banks need to be bigger, not smaller. And, um, Eddie, take off the blinders. I don’t know if you noticed it, but we just printed 3.5% on GDP. So, me, I AM popping the cork on the Moet. In fact, I’m sipping it right now.

I don’t know what Ed and Marshall are smoking, but don’t pass it around.

See, I’m an optimist. I knew we would pull out of this one. My motto? Remember, there’s always a bull market somewhere. You just need to know where to look.

You’ve probably been sitting there wondering, "What is The Secret?" I’ll tell you, it’s called positive thinking.

Anyway, I’m sure you pessimists are going to try to bring me down in the comments: aitrader, Lavrenti, kbob, Vangel, you know I’m talking to you – you too Wadsworth. I can take it. As my boy Nails would say, “I love it, baby… Pile it on, bro.”

Charlie has left the building.

Charles D. Bull is a pseudonym. He has been loosed on this site to post purely for your amusement… and ridicule.

Related posts:

• Rosenberg: Market rally is just multiple expansion
• Overbought?
• An amazing market rally. What’s next?
• Rosenberg thinks U.S. market may Test March lows
• Back to the future: Rosenberg says it’s like the crisis never happened

Finance and politics

• New Name Floated In Geithner Replacement Talks – Dealbreaker

  What up, bankster? Sorry, I know I said I wouldn’t be using that word but it’s in context and I had to say it. This will be the new Treasury lyrical theme.

• FT.com – Galleon paid banks millions for ‘edge’

  Proof the system is rigged. Goldman and MS tops on list

• FT.com – How to avoid a repeat of the Great Crash

  Is Friedman’s cure the answer to deflation?

• Struggling in a recovering economy

  "for many Americans the pain is still dragging on"

• FT.com – Soros: General Theory of Reflexivity

  Not much chatter on this yet. Hat tip Scott

• What if George W. Bush had done that? – Josh Gerstein – POLITICO.com

  The conclusion here is right. There IS bias.

Other stories

• The Cost of Larry Johnson’s Gay Slur on Twitter: $213,000

  Inevitable when what was private becomes public

• North Carolina Sea Levels Rising Three Times Faster Than In Previous 500 Years, Study Finds

  "20th-century sea-level rise to be three times higher"

• US swine flu vaccine too late to beat autumn wave – New Scientist

  Let’s hope worst fears are not realized

• What Does a Smart Brain Look Like?: Inner Views Show How We Think: Scientific American

  Very cool science.

• When Ants Attack: Chemicals That Trigger Aggression In Argentine Ants Synthesized 

Distraction of the Day: America’s Next President, the formative years

Related posts:

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• Bedtime reading: 2009-05-14
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Source

Stuart Carlson – Uclick

Related posts:

• The failure to address the looming too-big-to-fail issue
• Einhorn: Break up too big to fail financial institutions
• Too big to fail?
• Greenspan: “If they’re too big to fail, they’re too big”
• Regional banks: Zions falls

This is good. H/T Michael Panzner.

Related posts:

• TurboTax: targetting ads to Obama’s team problems
• Michael Panzner: regional banks in trouble
• Darwin: Very gradual change we can believe in
• Hedge Funds
• GM gets the green light on its section 363 bankruptcy

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• News from around the web: 2009-08-07

• US Treasuries: "Risk free" for How Long? – Megan McArdle

  This is the widely-believed default canard. Latin America nations defaulted because of foreign currency debt. Japan issue debt in their own currency. They cannot default. Hello?

• CRE Refinance Pressure to Continue for Months : HousingWire

  Peak middle of net decade

• South-South Trade Tensions – Crisis Talk – The World Bank Group

  China vs. South America. H/T Mark Thoma

• Soros says taxpayers right to resent bank bonuses | Reuters
• The White House’s election-year fratricide – washingtonpost.com

  Despicable

• The Time Has Come For Direct Job Creation – Randall Wray

  I am not sure how I feel about this one. Definitely read it.

• China’s 8.9% Growth? No Way – Forbes.com
• FT.com – Mohammed El-Erian – The two-stage de-risking of banks
• Who cares if Wall Street ‘talent’ leaves? – Oct. 23, 2009
• Blame Game Starts in Virginia — Political Wire

  White House to label Deeds a "weak candidate"

• The Best Free Twitter Apps for Android

  Twidroid and Swift are top dogs

• Bernanke: Smaller Banks Not Necessarily the Answer for ‘Too Big to Fail’ Dilemma – Real Time Economics – WSJ
• The ‘Junk’ Parade Marches On – WSJ.com

  High yield has had a stellar year

• Buttonwood: Squaring the circle | The Economist

  Equities, bonds and gold all up double digits is rare

• Accidents Of History Created U.S. Health System : NPR

  Great history of healthcare in America

• Matt Taibbi – Taibblog – Elizabeth Warren for President – True/Slant
• FT.com – Rally fuelled by cheap money brings a sense of foreboding

  h/t Scott

• Miller Says Odds May Not Favor El-Erian’s New Normal – Bloomberg.com

  I’m more with El-Erian

• U.S. Risks Japan-Like ‘Lost Decade’ on Stimulus Exit, Koo Says – Bloomberg.com

  “three to five years to get out of this mess, even under the best of circumstances.

Distraction of the Day: Miley Cyrus quits Twitter, Billy Dee and Jimmy Kimmel version (hilarious)

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