Credit Writedowns » derivatives

Jeffrey Gundlach’s Bond Outlook

Edward Harrison — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 01:00:27 +0000

Here's the skinny on how Jeffrey Gundlach sees the best tactical bond market approach for US-based investors

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Video: Warren Buffett on ‘Too Big to Fail’

Edward Harrison — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 16:15:08 +0000

Here’s more from Warren Buffett on CNBC this morning. This time he talks to Becky Quick about ‘Too Big To Fail’. CNBC host Joe Kernen takes sides with the Occupy Wall Street protesters and asks Buffett whether we can regulate them to “keep them honest” or whether we need to “break them up”. Buffett responds in the video below

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Bill Black on potential Bank of America derivatives losses

Edward Harrison — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 20:46:40 +0000

In the video below, Bill Black discusses the issues he raised in a recent post about Bank of America’s accounting activities. At issue is the effect of its shift of assets from the holding company to its FDIC-insured subsidiary. In total, Bank of America owns derivatives with a notional value of $75 trillion. The Federal Reserve authorised this accounting manoeuvre despite FDIC objections

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What They Are Doing?

Frederick Sheehan — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 12:30:00 +0000

The quantity of debt grows as the quality recedes. The problem of bad loans is no longer just the pre-2008 mortgages, CDOs, and LBOs. Debt issued after the bust is defaulting, such as Greek sovereign bonds, issued in June 2010. Some securities are born to part investors from their money, but it's remarkable the extent and variety of such instruments issued in 2011. The world choked on similar bonds and derivatives only three years ago, many of which are still held at false prices on financial institutions' books

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Bank of America’s Death Rattle: Not with a Bang, but a Whimper

William Black — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 17:45:51 +0000

Bob Ivry, Hugh Son and Christine Harper have written an article that needs to be read by everyone interested in the financial crisis. The article (available here) is entitled: BofA Said to Split Regulators Over Moving Merrill Derivatives to Bank Unit. The thrust of their story is that Bank of America’s holding company, BAC, has directed the transfer of a large number of troubled financial derivatives from its Merrill Lynch subsidiary to the federally insured bank Bank of America (BofA). The story reports that the Federal Reserve supported the transfer and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) opposed it. Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism has written an appropriately blistering attack on this outrageous action, which puts the public at substantially increased risk of loss. I write to add some context, point out additional areas of inappropriate actions, and add a regulatory perspective gained from dealing with analogous efforts by holding companies to foist dangerous affiliate transactions on insured depositories. I’ll begin by adding some historical context to explain how B of A got into this maze of affiliate conflicts

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Can Greece CDS Trigger A European Lehman?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 01:51:04 +0000

In my view, a CDS trigger could be a Lehman-style event, yes. Moreover, only a hard restructuring – meaning principal reduction would actually have any meaningful impact on peripheral CDS or interest rates. So, I expect the euro zone periphery to continue to remain under stress until we reach that point

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Gundlach on another crisis: “How much currency do you have?”

Edward Harrison — Tue, 31 May 2011 18:24:34 +0000

Forget about gold for the time being. Investors need to own cash - currency, simply as a hedge against the risk of another derivatives mess down the line

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Sidelights to 1994

Frederick Sheehan — Mon, 02 May 2011 17:30:49 +0000

LURING THE UNSOPHISTICATED into the stock market was considered a risk by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in 1994. So much so, that protecting the individual investor was a mandate of the Fed. (The Fed advertises and then omits new mandates faster than spring fashions. My favorite is the brainstorm of former Fed governor Frederic Mishkin in 2007: "The modern science of monetary policy proceeds under the assumption that the central bank's purpose is to maximize the well-being of households in the economy; the objective function specifies exactly what should be maximized.") On May 27, 1994, Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee it was for this very reason that he - his FOMC - had started raising rates in February, 1994: "Lured by consistently high returns in capital markets, people exhibited increasingly a willingness to take on market risk by extending the maturity of their investments." The People had shifted assets out of bank deposits and the like. The avuncular Fed chairman, by raising rates, was shepherding his sheep: "[S]ome of those buying the funds perhaps did not fully appreciate the exposure of their new investments to the usual fluctuations in bond and stock prices." Given this acknowledgement, the Fed later violated its Investor Protection Mandate when it did not raise margin requirements: a means to reduce credit to the stock market, but, as much so, a warning of forbearance to those who do "not fully appreciate the exposure of their new investments." The Federal Reserve has absolute authority to raise margin requirements at any time. The Dow rose from 3,757 on May 27, 1994 to over 11,000 in early 2000; the Nasdaq from 733 to over 5,000. During these manic years, households served as sacrificial lambs to finance an economy that was funded by rising stock and bond prices

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Is Your Portfolio Insured?

Casey Research — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 14:00:14 +0000

If you, like many investors, keep the majority of your holdings in relatively liquid stocks on the U.S. exchanges, one of the first places to look is options. Say you are one of the investors who has been along for the ride on Netflix, and your position is up 700% in five years, with the stock trading at about $230/share. Maybe you are willing to live with a 10% haircut, but no more. In that case, you could purchase puts to cover your holdings on the stock out to September, with a strike price of $205. The current premium on such puts is about $20, or less than 10% of the share price. That might sound like a lot to pay for insurance. But the nice thing about options is, you can always let someone else pay for your policy. Calls for Netflix at $250 with the same expiration are also trading right around $20. Sell an equal number of covered calls, and your insurance is basically free. If the stock rises, you'll still get the strike price, sharing in some of the gains (albeit now capped). And if it crashes, you'll be able to dump your shares onto someone else at the prearranged price

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A Kind Word for Homeowners

Annaly Salvos — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 21:50:52 +0000

By Annaly Capital Management The next voice to be heard in the debate on the future of housing finance in the United States will be that of the Treasury Department, which is slated to release its report on the subject sometime this month. Given the sensitive political and economic nature of the topic, the complexity

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MBS Putbacks Uncertain but Other U.S. Bank Problems Also Loom

John Lounsbury — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 07:45:32 +0000

Jonathan R. Laing reports in Barrons that the exposure of U.S. banks to liability for putbacks of defective MBS (mortgage backed securities) is greater than the $52 billion reported last week from the findings of the COP (Congressional Oversight Panel). The Laing article has a total potential liability of $86 billion for U.S. banks. What

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Time To Shut Down MERS

Randall Wray — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 03:49:14 +0000

Randall Wray advises us to support Representative Kaptur’s bill and restore the rule of law Every link of the home finance food chain promoted fraud—from mortgage brokers and appraisers who conspired to overvalue property to stick buyers with overpriced homes, to many mortgage lenders which preferred the riskiest mortgages to maximize interest and fees, on

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Videos: Depositions of Alleged Robo-Signers From Nationwide Title Clearing

Edward Harrison — Fri, 12 Nov 2010 18:00:19 +0000

Over the past several years, Bryan Bly, Crystal Moore and Dhurata Doko have signed thousands of mortgage assignments as vice presidents of Citi Residential and other major lenders. Yet when asked in a recent deposition what a mortgage assignment is, Bly replied: "I’m really not sure." Moore, meanwhile, defined a promissory note as something "that

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The Subprime Debacle: Act 2, Part 2

Guest Author — Sun, 24 Oct 2010 17:25:24 +0000

by John Mauldin They Knew What They Were Selling It’s hard to know where to start. There is just so much here. So let’s begin with testimony from Mr. Richard Bowen, former senior vice-president and business chief underwriter with CitiMortgage Inc. This was given to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Hearing on Subprime Lending and

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An update on asymmetric information and corporate governance in bank bailouts

Edward Harrison — Thu, 21 Oct 2010 18:00:33 +0000

Last June I wrote a post on the topic of corporate governance that pointed to one of only two outcomes as the likely result of the bank bailouts. Outcome number one was bank prudence and low credit growth in the face of uncertainty. Outcome number two was a reckless heads I win, tails you lose

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The Alchemy of Securitization

John Lounsbury — Thu, 21 Oct 2010 15:00:00 +0000

This is a cross-post from the new economic blog Global Economic Intersection. Ratings agencies have been criticized for inadequately determining risk in the massive collection of debt securities created in the credit bubble. A second major problem in the mortgage securitization process is the existence of holes in the legally required filings of mortgage documents.

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Institutional Investors now suing Bank of America for put backs on MBS

Edward Harrison — Tue, 19 Oct 2010 21:00:08 +0000

Felix Salmon is right. This is going to be a big, big problem for the financial institutions. A group of investors holding $16.5 billion of mortgage bonds took a step toward a possible suit against a Bank of America Corp unit for failing to correctly handle loans that were packaged into bonds. The investors said

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Josh Rosner on Problem Loans in Banks’ Mortgage Backed Securities

Edward Harrison — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 14:27:45 +0000

In the wake of Felix Salmon’s investigative reporting on how mortgage backed securities were put together with problematic loans, an increasing amount of focus has turned to the banks’ liability to investors. In the video below, Josh Rosner of the research firm Graham Fisher takes us through the details with Eliot Spitzer and Kathleen Parker.

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Bank Holiday is Best Solution for Epidemic of Mortgage Fraud

Randall Wray — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 13:30:00 +0000

by L. Randall Wray, Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, Research Director with the Center for Full Employment and Price Stability and Senior Research Scholar at The Levy Economics Institute. We have long known that lender fraud was rampant during the real estate boom. The FBI began warning of an “epidemic” of

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Foreclosure crisis much deeper than robo-signers

Edward Harrison — Sun, 10 Oct 2010 07:00:19 +0000

I haven’t been writing about the foreclosure documentation crisis because I have been more focused on the ‘currency war’. But I want to flag three posts I wrote about this time last year on the mortgage and securitization market because they are relevant to this burgeoning foreclosure documentation crisis. The robo-signer problem is just a

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Wednesday Washington Watch

Annaly Salvos — Wed, 29 Sep 2010 16:21:52 +0000

by Annaly Capital Management Today Mike Farrell appeared as a panel participant at a House Financial Services Committee entitled The Future of Housing Finance – A Review of Proposals to Address Market Structure and Transition. The comments of each panel participant are available on the committee’s website. We post Mr. Farrell’s comments below. Chairman Frank,

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Michael Burry Discusses Investing in Farmland, Real Estate, Gold

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 17:33:11 +0000

Michael Burry, the former head of Scion Capital LLC, made a big name predicting the housing market’s decline by taking short positions against it as lionized in Michael Lewis’ book "The Big Short." Here he talks with Bloomberg’s Jon Erlichman about the blame game post-housing crash. No one is taking any blame; He calls it

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Goldman’s Gets 25% to 35% of Revenue From Derivatives

Edward Harrison — Sat, 07 Aug 2010 01:53:05 +0000

No wonder Goldman has resisted derivatives regulation so fiercely. A huge percentage of the firm’s revenue comes from these activities (hat tip R.W.). The Wall Street Journal is reporting that as much as a third of the firm’s revenue came from derivatives last year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission that

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The Shadow Knows

Annaly Salvos — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 01:00:18 +0000

From Annaly Capital Management For those who missed it (and we had, until we were tipped by James Aitken, thank you very much), a vital paper was posted to the New York Fed’s website in the beginning of the month. “Shadow Banking,” a staff report authored by Zoltan Pozsar, Tobias Adrian, Adam Ashcraft and Hayley

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Goldman Fraud Case With SEC Settled

John Lounsbury — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 00:30:00 +0000

Goldman Sachs (GS) and the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) have announced a settlement of the suit over the Abacus security case which was a civil action charging fraud by Goldman. According to the SEC announcement, which I watched on CNBC, Goldman will pay $550 million in disgorgement and penalties. In spite of this being

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Stat of the day: Hungary joins list of sovereigns with highest default probability

Edward Harrison — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 17:55:02 +0000

There is a lot more exposure to Italy, Ireland and Spain but we know that Thailand was the ultimate source of the Asian Crisis. These things have a way of metastasising – and we have already seen the strains in Spain and Greece. You could really argue that it was Hungary which was infected by a virulent strain of the Spanish Flu – and that contagion has already begun. I think people are concerned for good reason

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Goldman may settle fraud case on lesser charge

Edward Harrison — Fri, 28 May 2010 03:05:27 +0000

I expected this (hat tip Scott). Goldman Sachs is hoping to avoid the Securities and Exchange Commission’s charge of fraud by reaching a settlement on a lesser offence and agreeing to a fine of hundreds of millions of dollars, according to people familiar with the bank’s negotiating position. Goldman, which has been accused of civil

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Warren Buffett’s Letter to John Dingell Circa 1982

Edward Harrison — Thu, 27 May 2010 12:26:13 +0000

Last year I told you that Berkshire had 62 derivative contracts that I manage. (We also have a few left in the General Re runoff book.) Today, we have 94 of these, and they fall into two categories. First, we have written 54 contracts that require us to make payments if certain bonds that are

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Links: 2010-04-29 European crisis, derivatives and much more

Edward Harrison — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 16:03:48 +0000

If you would like to receive our links in real-time please follow me at @edwardnh or go to our site’s News Feed (on site or rss). Please send links via the contact form on the site. Euro-zone sovereign debt crisis To Save The Eurozone: $1 trillion, European Central Bank Reform, And A New Head

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Is Goldman fulfilling its public purpose?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 01:50:59 +0000

Look back at the prepared testimony that Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman’s CEO offered to the US Senate two days ago. In it he clearly defines what Goldman Sachs public purpose is – what its societal function is. Are they fulfilling that role and if not what do we do about it? To me this is the

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Prepared Testimony of Lloyd C. Blankfein for Tomorrow’s Senate Hearing

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 00:39:14 +0000

Below are the prepared remarks of Goldman’s CEO Lloyd Blankfein for his testimony tomorrow before the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations. Fabrice Tourre will also testify. Chairman Levin, Ranking Member Coburn and Members of the Subcommittee: Thank you for the invitation to appear before you today as you examine some of the causes and consequences of

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Prepared Testimony of Lloyd C. Blankfein for Tomorrow’s Senate Hearing originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Guest Post: Questions from the Goldman Scandal

Guest Author — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 15:04:29 +0000

This is a post by Bill Black and Eliot Spitzer which originally appeared at New Deal 2.0. Bill Black is an associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri – Kansas City (UMKC). He was the executive director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention from 2005-2007. Eliot Spitzer is the former New

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Senator Blanche Lincoln’s Derivatives Reform Bill Must Pass

Randall Wray — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 17:24:58 +0000

This is a fiery take on derivatives and too-big-to-fail institutions by Randall Wray which originally appeared at New Deal 2.0. Professor Wray believes naked shorting via derivatives should be outlawed. He goes further to say that the largest institutions are not fulfilling their public purpose in loading up on derivatives. L. Randall Wray, Ph.D. is

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Senator Blanche Lincoln’s Derivatives Reform Bill Must Pass originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Links: 2010-04-22 Goldman, derivatives and everything else

Edward Harrison — Thu, 22 Apr 2010 12:45:32 +0000

If you would like to receive our links in real-time please follow me at @edwardnh or go to our site’s News Feed page. Derivatives-related news FT Alphaville – Izabella Kaminska – Hungarian watchdog fines Deutsche Bank on FX swap deals Janet Tavakoli: ProPublica’s (and NY Times’) "Untold" Magnetar Story Creates Excuses for Wall Street and

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Links: 2010-04-22 Goldman, derivatives and everything else originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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John Paulson’s letter to investors defending his firm’s actions in the Abacus deals

Edward Harrison — Thu, 22 Apr 2010 02:19:41 +0000

Paulson Letter on Abacus AC1 Related Posts Goldman Abacus AC1 Pitchbook 16 Apr 2010 The dollar rally spells trouble for some investors 5 Sep 2008 John Meriwether is back, risk must be too 22 Oct 2009 More About: derivatives, Financial Institutions, Goldman Sachs, hedge funds, mortgages

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John Paulson’s letter to investors defending his firm’s actions in the Abacus deals originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Goldman Abacus AC1 Pitchbook 16 Apr 2010
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John Meriwether is back, risk must be too 22 Oct 2009