Post Tagged with: "deflation"
Government tax coercion versus fiat money liberty
This is a polemic on fiat currency. it is long and detailed. But I believe it is both thorough and logical
Notes from a Private Briefing with the Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan held a private briefing with a small group of analysts from leading financial institutions in their NY rep office. The Director-General of the Research and Statistics Department led the presentation. This column summarises insights from that meeting
Gundlach: “It’s very difficult to move forward with a debt-based economic scheme”
Jeffrey Gundlach spoke with Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider in an exclusive interview which they recently carried on their site. Gundlach believes that the economy is “a low-performance mode” that makes the unemployment overhang difficult to solve. In his view, there is “deflation risk in the economy at times when the government isn’t stimulating.”
QEIII: Why Not (!?)
Marc Chandler: The Fed cannot rule out renewed Treasury purchases. It does not or should not deny itself its policy options. It is committed to do what is necessary to prevent a slide into deflation, which indeed is a forgotten element of price stability. Yet the central bank cannot do everything and shy of a politically untenable expansion of its power, there is little it can do to support the housing market or to stop the necessary de-leveraging of the private sector: both major retardants on the growth of the economy. On the whole, it can just hope to mitigate the impact
The Scylla and Charybdis of anchoring inflation expectations
I would argue that inflation expectations are rising as we speak. They are still anchored but they will not be if they continue to rise any more. And if inflation expectations become unanchored, it will mean that policy tightening will have to be much more aggressive – and that leads us back to debt deflation in a hurry –exactly the problem CBs wish to avoid. If CBs are prudent, they will not only be aware of this Scylla – Charybdis conundrum, but act in order to keep the global economy away from either outcome
Debt Problem Grave, But Solution Elusive
By Comstock Partners The massive U.S. debt problem that we have been discussing so often for many years has now become widely known both to investors and the general public. It has been a major topic of discussion in the media as well as a key issue in last November’s elections. To take just one
Random Shots – Return of the Deflation Trade?
By Claus Vistesen I recently asked my readers whether the global economy is in for inflation, deflation, or stagflation. Given that it may well be all three at different points in time, it seems as if recent market action suggests that we should be looking at the d-word. QE1 + QE2 +…+QEn = Deflation? Even
Should Central Banks Focus On Core Inflation?
Here’s a morning note from UBS’ Andy Lees in London on core inflation that made me think. Andy writes: Opinion – By focussing on core inflation rather than headline inflation, central banks are making a major policy mistake. Because of declining geological reasons, the energy network is expanding rapidly relative to the world economy. This
Inflation V Deflation – Which Door Do You Pick?
By Claus Vistesen As the debate between the inflationistas and deflationistas appears about to rev up again, I thought that I would try to put pen to virtual paper and sketch out my thoughts on the matter. The specific catalyst for looking into this is, naturally, in part the fact that oil looks set to
Rosenberg bullish on energy stocks, cautious on growth due to oil shock
Earlier in the week, David Rosenberg wrote that he is bullish on energy stocks due to the exogenous shock that tensions in the Middle East are creating in the energy complex. However, this is not a bullish story for overall U.S. growth or for business profit margins. In the Bloomberg video below Rosenberg tells Margaret
Gary Shilling sees 2% growth in 2011 as consumers deleverage
Gary Shilling spoke with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene yesterday in a wide-ranging interview. I have posted the video below for you to watch. But let me say a few words about the interview. First, it is noteworthy that in this multi-faceted interview Bloomberg chose the title "Shilling Says Commodity Markets ‘Clearly in a Bubble’. I see
Rosenberg: Ten Investment Themes for 2011
The following is an excerpt from David Rosenberg’s recent Lunch with Dave daily research piece highlighting Ten Themes for 2011. These themes are quite a bit different than the ones we highlighted just days ago from former colleague Richard Bernstein – much more cautious on the near-term future