Update: 18 Mar 2008. I am reposting this entry from Feb 10th because it is relevant to the need to liquidate insolvent institutions like AIG that are now getting bailouts.

Depression is a taboo word in the English language. Its mention conjures up images of bread lines, shanty towns an general misery from the 1930’s. Yet, the D-word is making a comeback amidst the backdrop of a weak global economy. In fact, a growing number of pundits are calling this economic malaise a depression. But, what is a depression, really?

You may have picked up on my change in terminology recently. I have gone from calling this rough patch in the global economy a rough patch, downturn, recession or some other euphemism to labeling it a Depression. Now, I am doing that for effect in part. Thinking of this as a longer-term downturn focuses one on mitigating downside risk rather than waiting for the eventual rebound. I think this is what we need to do.

However, I do believe it will be a depression in all likelihood — although we are not there yet. What I find interesting is that a number of prominent figures have started to voice the same beliefs in public. David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch was the first. And even UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown let the D-word slip from his mouth. Bond King Bill Gross recently said it was a depression with a small ‘d.’ Now, we can add Dominique Strauss-Kahn to the mix.

Bill Gross, the man who controls the largest bond fund in the world, believes that trillions of dollars in government spending will be necessary to get the economy going again. He warns that if the government does not spend trillions of stimulus to boost the economy, the U.S. and global economies could collapse.
Now, on [...]

Marc Faber thinks it would better to nationalize the banks rather than bail them out. In his view, we are seeing special interests feeding at the trough.

Government policy must be well-crafted in order to avoid negative unintended consequences that arise when the government inserts itself into the private sector. And this is where I am having a problem with the Obama Administration.

Recently, Tim Geithner’s comments about currency manipulation put me over the top; I felt compelled to give you my seven reasons to be skeptical about the policy course now being charted.

There is no way to look past the way that the U.S. TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) has been administered and not understand we are seeing crony capitalism at work. One only need look at the way the British are doing things to see a true banking bailout which limits moral hazard and regulates against poor behavior.

President-elect Barack Obama has signaled he intends to bring the same methods to the United States. These are issues I have mentioned in prior posts regarding using historical precedents as a guide to administering America’s TARP program and setting up a framework for a comprehensive banking crisis solution. The following steps are what are still needed in the U.S.:

I have come down on the side of sweeping change when it comes to the banking system in the United States. Basically, I fear a further downward spiral due to the fear and panic that the banking crisis has unleashed. In my view, this necessitates a comprehensive solution, one which we have yet to see. However, there is one problem with comprehensive solutions I would like to highlight: asset confiscation.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown has finally pulled the trigger. In the most momentous move yet in the credit crisis, the UK government is effectively partially nationalising the UK banking system. For months, I have maintained that the financial system needed to be recapitalised in the UK and elsewhere. If any country is [...]

Despite the fall in markets, Congress’s not having passed the Economic Patriot Act may be a blessing in disguise. The FTSE is trading up. Dow futures show a rise of 170 points. So, maybe the sell-off was a one-day event.

In any event, it does give the U.S. Congress more time to pass new legislation crafted from scratch. And the new proposal can have the things we need in it: