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Yesterday, in a post entitled “De-leveraging,” I argued that credit writedowns and the resulting deleveraging are highly deflationary. This is the core of the problem with the global financial system. I want to expand a bit on that conversation.
Yesterday, I kept it simple to illustrate the problem with leverage and the need for [...]

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The term deleveraging is one bandied about a lot in the press recently. But, what does it actually mean? De-leveraging is the process by which financial institutions and investors reduce the relative size of their assets to equity ratio. Generally, it means shedding assets in the financial sector, thus reducing credit and [...]

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The President of the Boston Fed, Eric Rosengren, has in effect said that small and regional banks are at risk in the next wave of writedowns for U.S. financial institutions. He sites construction loan exposure in particular as a place to worry. I give the story of small and regional exposure to construction [...]

Along with the residential housing bust in Ireland, a commercial real estate (CRE) bust is definitely on the table. According to the newspaper the Irish Independent up to 10 billion euros of writedowns are possible for the Irish property developers and banks.

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This in from the Times today: Bradford & Bingley is in big trouble. They are trying to do a rights issue and issue a profit warning at the same time. Can anyone tell me how one gets shareholders to pony up another 88p to buy a stock that is down from 2 quid [...]

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The bloggers over at Calculated Risk have reported on a story making the rounds in the Internet. This story involves S&P’s downgrade of Alt-A Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBSs). The crux of the matter is that S&P misjudged how much collateral in the underlying value of the homes there was to protect these [...]

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UPDATE: The latest chart on U.S. consumer credit growth is here.
I have been focusing on debt as a primary contributor to the slump the U.S. is experiencing. We’ve seen skyrocketing Debt-to-GDP and Mortgage Debt. Now, I want to look at consumer credit. The Fed releases a monthly statement showing consumer [...]

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The credit crunch has claimed the heads of many a financial market since it was prematurely marked as ‘contained’ to subprime loans. These markets include jumbo mortgage loans, Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), asset backed securities, High Yield bonds, SIVs, the inter-bank market, commercial paper, money market funds, and the auction rate market.
Now add Student [...]

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I am on record for expecting a serious downturn after the Tech Bubble crashed in 2001. We muddled through for a few years, but ultimately most of the damage was done and gone by 2004. The Tech Bubble was a bubble of asset prices that had little influence on the underlying global financial [...]

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First the banks won’t refinance, then they won’t restructure mortgages, now they’re pulling out all stops in this mortgage mess. They are pulling existing home equity lines of credit. That’s right, in a feeble attempt to save their sorry asses and limit credit losses, you are going to get the shaft. It’s [...]