By now, you are familiar with the carry trade, where one borrows in one’s own currency in order to invest in higher yielding foreign assets, often times with significant leverage. The Japanese were famous for making this trade in Australian Dollars, U.S. Dollars, you name it.
What a lot of people don’t realize that everyone [...]

I ran across a very disturbing news item today that is getting a lot of press in Germany. Apparently, the leveraged finance community is getting routed at the German Automaker VW. The crux of the situation is that Porsche, which controls VW, upped its stake in the company causing shares to rise. [...]

The recent movement in global markets has me scratching my head a bit. You have people dumping gold and the Swiss Franc in order to invest in the U.S. dollar and Treasury securities. Everyone says it is a flight to quality. I do not agree. Logic has it that the U.S., [...]

I have felt for sometime that dollar strength is a counter-trend that has a sell-by date written all over it. You see, the Federal Reserve is ballooning its balance sheet like nobody’s business as it tries to be the global lender of last resort. This is very inflationary. Apparently, the Fed wants to [...]

CNBC and other media sources are reporting that a number of hedge funds are collapsing under the weight of poor performance and massive fund redemption. Given the market volatility in credit, sick, bond and currency markets, it was only a matter of time before we started to see this occurrence.CNBC reported the following today:
Citadel [...]

In 1999, Edward Chancellor wrote a wonderful book called “Devil Take The Hindmost,” which I recommend to anyone who is interested in the history of bubbles, financial speculation, and market panics. In it, Chancellor traces the origins of speculative manias to as far back as Ancient Rome. His book recounts previous speculative periods like the infamous South Sea Bubble of the early 1700s and the railway mania of the 1840s as well as the Crash of 1929 and the recent bubble in 1990s Japan.

Yesterday, Chancellor turned his keen insight to the present market panic and has some very thoughtful words to say that bear repeating.

If you haven’t noticed, credit is hard to come by these days. And the data are finally showing this state of affairs. The latest data from August show that consumer credit plunged by $7.9 billion, the most since record keeping began.
Credit is the lifeblood of any economy. When credit contracts, so does [...]

This morning Chris Whalen made some comments on CNBC that hit the nail on the head regarding the U.S. banking crisis: there is a huge wave of old-fashioned loan losses coming down the pike. The writedowns we have seen to date are largely confined to tradeable securities that must be marked to market.
There [...]

I named my blog “Credit Writedowns” because I anticipated an historic wave of credit writedowns in the global banking system which would lead to a wave of deleveraging, systemic risk, and bank failures — in short, a massive financial and economic bust to rival the Great Depression.
Up until now I have masked this dire [...]

Back in May, I showed you a chart of Total U.S. Debt which demonstrated that the United States was an increasingly indebted country. This chart was for all domestic debt minus financials and it topped out at about 225% of GDP.
Below is the same chart for the U.S., except this time I have added [...]