The data for personal consumption came out yesterday.  However, I have not had a chance to look at the data and write a post until now.  What I see right now is not good for a sustainable recovery.  Let me tell you why and how this could impact the chances for getting a longer cyclical [...]

This is the conclusion that Wachovia Chief Economist Mark Vitner draws from the very bullish consumer confidence number we have just seen.  To fill you in on the details, the Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index leapt from a poor 40.8 reading in April to a less poor 54.9 reading for May. This was [...]

This comes from Marc Chandler, head of the Brown Brothers Harriman Currency Strategy team (emphasis added):
After today there is an important US economic report every day this week. Tomorrow’s report on the March trade balance and Wed March business inventories may help economists fine tune their expectations for Q1 GDP revisions.  Currently the data is [...]

This past week, I caught an article in Wirschaftswoche (WiWo), the German Business Week, which suggested that the South Koreans were very confident about their economy and had learned from the Asian Crisis.
Just today, the South Koreans released GDP numbers that many would find amazing, showing that the economy grew 0.1% in the first quarter [...]

James Montier has a very good piece out via John Mauldin (JohnMauldin@InvestorsInsight.com) on the need for real economy stimulus over financial sector stimulus.
The quote I find most memorable goes to the heart of our debate about the financial system:
Investors seem to be rather excited about banks posting profits at the moment. Frankly, if a bank [...]

I believe we may be seeing the bottom here. Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman does as well. Here is what he has to say:
Our baseline expectation is that the pace of contraction of the US economy probably peaked in the horrific fourth quarter of last year, which still appears subject to downward [...]

Paul Kasriel thinks the Fed announcement that it is monetizing the U.S. Federal Government’s deficit is very important. He ends his article at Northern Trust with these words:
In the coming months, the federal government is going to be increasing its debt issuance to finance its increased spending as a result of the recently-passed fiscal [...]

Predictions that the savings rate would increase as the Depression in America took hold are coming true. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the savings rate in the U.S. hit 5%.

U.S. consumer spending contracted more than anticipated in December 2008, declining by 1.0%. However, this number is a look into the past and does little to help predict how spending will trend going forward.

I have been out the entire morning and haven’t been able to read any news reports on the GDP numbers. However, I have just now had a chance to look at the data and wanted to share my thoughts with you, unfiltered by the media reports. I would sum it up by calling it a story about the three I’s of imports, inflation and investment. But, I will also have a few words to say about state and local government spending as well.