But, everywhere I look, everybody is saying it is.
I would like to be true to the data and not just take the government’s seasonally-adjusted numbers at face value.
Judge for yourself. Here’s the data:
This is what everyone is focused on – the seasonally-adjusted data. The part in red shows consumer credit down $12 billion.
 

But, what [...]

The Federal Reserve has just released the most recent data on consumer credit. The data show outstanding consumer credit falling to $2.47 trillion in August from a December 2008 peak of $2.59 trillion – on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis. That is down 4.4% from the year ago period, continuing the acceleration of the year-on-year [...]

The following is a re-print of the latest monthly newsletter from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, published with the express permission of the author. Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners.  You can reach the firm  by email at info@arpllp.com.
The Absolute Return Letter
October 2009
A Country for Old Men and a Bit of [...]

Bill Gross has a piece out now on Pimco’s website suggesting we are about to witness a sea change in saving and spending habits, government intervention, and a host of other issues. This is not a buy-the-dips kind of atmosphere and it will last for, oh, 20 years.
Gross says:
This “new” vs. “old” normal dichotomy was [...]

According to the results of a study by the Spanish savings bank Caixa Catalunya, consumption will fall 4.1% this year, making the reaction to this downturn four times as severe as during the last big downturn in 1993.  Back then consumption only fell 0.9%.
The results are not only an indication of the deteriorated employment outlook [...]

It has been my thesis for some time that we are seeing a secular change in consumption patterns in the United States.  This will have grave implications for a world economy used to seeing the American consumer as an economic growth engine and consumer of first choice. Retail sales in the United States have fallen [...]

Many economic prognosticators believe Chinese consumption growth is key to a global economic recovery.  The US consumer, who had been the buyer of first and last resort during the bubble years, is tapped out and indebted.  The new engine of global growth must come from elsewhere.
On Friday, BBC Radio 4 released a broadcast called “Selling [...]

This comes from David Rosenberg:
Perpetuating the spending and borrowing cycle We couldn’t believe this when we saw this quote from the U.S. Transportation Secretary (Ray Lahood) in yesterday’s NYT (page B3) on the "Cash for Clunkers" program: "There obviously is a real pent-up demand in America … people love to [...]

Alcohol used to seen as a recession-proof good. This downturn is changing that thinking as evidence of cutbacks in spending, consumption, and on-premise drinking abound.  Back in the Spring of 2008, Nielsen conducted a bunch of surveys to see how the economy was affecting the consumption of wine and spirits.  The answer then was it [...]

In talking to the FT’s Gillian Tett, Hugh Hendry of The Eclectica Fund makes the hilarious metaphor of China as Santa Claus bringing gifts to a world constrained by excessive Western government debt issuance.  But, Hendry thinks the Asian surplus countries are the most exposed and most vulnerable because they are excessively dependent on foreign [...]