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Chart of the Day: Eurozone wage growth, pre-crisis

Edward Harrison — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 15:00:23 +0000

10% ‘internal devaluation’ in Germany took eight years. We are talking now about 20-30% wage and price cuts in Greece and Ireland. How realistic is that

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The FHFA Complaints and Control Fraud

William Black — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 19:30:41 +0000

The FHFA complaints lose explanatory power and persuasiveness because they ignore compensation and accounting. It pays to understand accounting control fraud

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Stagnant growth in UK take home pay

Edward Harrison — Sat, 06 Aug 2011 13:00:26 +0000

Annual growth on the VocaLink Public Sector Take Home Pay Index stands at 1.3% and in the private sector, growth has fallen to 2.9%

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Britain: public sector income growth lags private sector after pay freezes

Edward Harrison — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 21:00:31 +0000

Below are the findings of the recently released VocaLink Public Sector Take Home Pay Index. The VocaLink Take Home Pay Indices measure after-tax income as opposed to pre-tax gross income. So they are designed to reflect what Americans call disposable personal income

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Chart of the Day: UK Take Home Pay

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 23:01:55 +0000

Inflation is sapping spending power. Legitimately, one cannot expect pay to rise by 4 and 5% per annum in a still weak economic environment. Therefore, the only way to see more purchasing power for consumers over the medium-term is via reduced future inflation

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Why is Germany doing so well?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 15:24:37 +0000

There’s been a lot of talk since America’s dismal employment situation summary was released on Friday about why Germany has done so well during the global economic recovery. Here’s David Leonhardt of the NY Times: The brief story is that, despite its reputation for austerity, Germany has been far more willing than the United States

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China: rebalancing through wage increases

Michael Pettis — Sun, 15 May 2011 15:00:24 +0000

Is China currently rebalancing? The currency has been appreciating, the PBoC has hiked interest rates four times, and wages have been surging. Because of all of this I am often asked if China has finally begun the long-waited rebalancing process and whether we have yet seen an improvement in the underlying economy caused by a rising consumption share. Those who were hoping the answer was yes will have been disappointed by the release Thursday of the World Bank’s China Quarterly Update – April

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China losing competitiveness

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 May 2011 12:00:22 +0000

As labour costs in China rise, economists are beginning to think about replacing labour with capital, something we have already seen as a major factor in suppressing wage gains in developed economies. This is also in line with what economists say developing nations need to do to counteract the problem. More importantly, developing economies that reach this juncture must move up the industrial ladder to production of higher value-added goods or they will see their export competitiveness severely eroded

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Should Central Banks Focus On Core Inflation? Part 2

Guest Author — Thu, 05 May 2011 16:00:00 +0000

The latest figures from the US show that the consumer price index rose 0.5% in March, whilst the core personal consumption expenditure price index rose only 0.1%. This column explains the roles of these competing measures and argues that US monetary policymakers should pay close attention to headline inflation. It warns that neglecting headline inflation risks feverish boom-and-bust cycles with prolonged periods of high unemployment

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Top Marginal US Tax Rates: 1916-2010

Edward Harrison — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 16:00:50 +0000

Here's a great graph of US income tax rates back to when personal income taxes were started. You can see the marginal rate for personal income has come way down from its 1945 peak. A few months ago, Michael Hudson answered the question, "Why Did America Have A 90% Income Tax Under Eisenhower? ". Watch the video in the linked post for his answer, but the quote here from another post of his gives you the gist.

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Hard landing possible as Chinese inflation spirals ‘out of control’

Edward Harrison — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 14:00:22 +0000

On Saturday I wrote about the Scylla and Charybdis of anchoring inflation expectations, geared toward developed economies in North America and Europe. You tighten too aggressively and you get unwanted disinflation or deflation. You remain too loose and inflation rises. Inflation expectations are rising but they are still anchored in large part due to labour market slack. China faces a completely different macro environment. The PBoC is well behind the curve and may have to become very aggressive in tightening and revalue their currency. That risks a hard landing

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The Curve in the Road

Guest Author — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 13:18:21 +0000

Bernanke (and Dudley) have been testifying that inflation is not an issue. But what signs and maps are they reading? Bernanke specifically invokes inflation expectations as being most important, and he contends they are low. They both note that the “output gap” (more on it later) is still high and that wage inflation is unlikely in a period of high unemployment. But, as Greenspan recently said, “The problem is, none of these indicators will tell you when inflation is about to take hold.” The Economic Cycle Research Institute wrote what I think is a very powerful editorial about the problem with Fed policy and inflation. I will quote some of the more important paragraphs: “Central bankers need to stop clinging to policy orthodoxy and pay attention to proven cyclical leading inflation indicators that can actually tell them when inflation is about to take hold. Otherwise, if a well-meaning Fed stimulates the economy for too long, it will let inflation and/or asset prices get out of control, fostering boom-bust cycles that keep long-term unemployment at elevated readings as each short boom ends with a bust that pushes the jobless rate back up.”

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Capital Offense

Marc Chandler — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 15:11:11 +0000

By Marc Chandler A disproportionate amount of mind share has been devoted to the financial aspects of the crisis. Investors and policy makers alike may be distracted by this over-emphasis and thus leaving them vulnerable to other aspects of the crisis. More specifically, the underlying challenge is sustaining aggregate demand in the face of a

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Greenspan Panders for More Money

Frederick Sheehan — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 12:45:00 +0000

By Frederick Sheehan Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has once again received space on the editorial pages of the Financial Times. He does not deserve, so shall not receive, a rebuttal. But, it is probably still worth a moment to remind readers of the interests he continues to serve. His intention, in "How Dodd-Frank

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Stocks are not cheap

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 18:00:42 +0000

If you look at U.S. equity valuations based on value metrics like the Shiller P/E, stocks are rather expensive right now. Because many factors within an individual business cycle are mean-reverting, to the degree one wants to conduct meaningful asset allocation, one must capture the mean reversion effect for the overall market. Vitaliy Katsenelson has done this analysis and found the near record and mean-reverting profit margins for U.S. firms make U.S. equities overvalued

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Real Wages

Edward Harrison — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 15:25:27 +0000

This chart was put together by David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. It shows that wage growth in the U.S. is not keeping pace with inflation. For the statistical recovery to continue sustainably, we will need to either see this trend reversed. Alternatively we could see an increase in aggregate debt levels or a disproportionate increase

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Has Anyone Noticed The Mammoth Shifts in Chinese Economic Policy?

Edward Harrison — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 19:00:14 +0000

I don't think people realize that the Chinese have just made a rather sizable shift in economic policy. The Chinese are moving on multiple fronts now toward a new economic paradigm that includes slower growth but more domestic consumption. And this will have major implications for the rest of the world

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Inflation V Deflation – Which Door Do You Pick?

Claus Vistesen — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 20:45:04 +0000

By Claus Vistesen As the debate between the inflationistas and deflationistas appears about to rev up again, I thought that I would try to put pen to virtual paper and sketch out my thoughts on the matter. The specific catalyst for looking into this is, naturally, in part the fact that oil looks set to

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January personal income data best macro news in a while

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 13:45:20 +0000

Today’s release on U.S. Personal Income and Outlays from January 2011 was a nice change of pace from the worries that food and commodity price inflation have caused over the past month. We saw personal income up an annualized $133 billion or 1.0% month-on-month. That’s a robust reading that allows consumer spending to tick up

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What is the secret to Germany’s economic success?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 13:50:59 +0000

Overall, we should credit Germany for building a recovery based not just on exports, but on capital investment and saving. One reason that Germany is a manufacturing and export powerhouse is because it has invested in those businesses. Certainly, wage restraint over the past decade by German labour unions has kept German companies in the mix. But, at heart, the German export story is about investment in human and physical capital. And that is definitely worthy of emulation

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Freddie Mac: Tone Deaf at the Top

William Black — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 12:50:34 +0000

By William K. Black Freddie Mac made a terse announcement Wednesday in a securities filing about the resignation of its chief operating officer, Bruce Witherell. Freddie said that Witherell resigned "for personal reasons." His departure was effective immediately and he received no termination benefits. He had been receiving several millions of dollars in annual compensation

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Structural or Cyclical Problem? Try Institutional

John Lounsbury — Mon, 17 Jan 2011 19:12:53 +0000

Harold Meyerson, in The Washington Post, says debate about whether the recession and poor recovery are cyclical or structural problems is misplaced. Meyerson says the problems are institutional imbalances

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Will Wall Street Bonuses Be Slashed?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 30 Nov 2010 20:06:21 +0000

CNBC says that Wall Street bonuses will likely be down this year as much as 20% across the board. Take a look

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Food Price Controls in China As Inflation Becomes Issue

Edward Harrison — Tue, 16 Nov 2010 14:41:28 +0000

I caught this at the bottom of Andy Lees’ morning note: China – To limit inflation China will impose price controls on food according to the NDRC, and will severely punish anyone found speculating on corn or cotton. “The policies that are being considered aim to contain the momentum and will be delivered in combination

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Affordable Schooling

Annaly Salvos — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 21:22:34 +0000

Much ink, real and virtual, has been spilled over the last few days on the macro and micro of the election, QE2, global central banking activities, competitive currency strategies and asset-price targeting. We’re going to give that a rest for today (although we reserve the right to spill some more of that ink ourselves in

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Mortgage default as economic stimulus

Edward Harrison — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 15:11:37 +0000

Early in the year, I posted a few times on a coming wave of mortgage defaults generally and the economic effect of living in defaulted accommodation specifically. My conclusion at the time was that, while the consumer spending due to the free rent defaulters received was large, it was not a major factor in the

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Government Sponsored Spending

Annaly Salvos — Sat, 30 Oct 2010 00:00:45 +0000

The first reading of 3rd quarter GDP was released this morning, with the headline coming in right on top of estimates at 2%. The happy surprise of the report was personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which were better than expectations at 2.6% annualized growth. The strength in PCE, which is now effectively back at its former

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GDP growth comes in at 2.0%, bang on estimates

Edward Harrison — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 12:57:25 +0000

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today: Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2010, (that is, from the second

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The Technology-Driven Consumption Trap

Rick Bookstaber — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 14:00:00 +0000

by Rick Bookstaber This reflects my personal opinion, not the views of the SEC or its staff. I just finished reading Robert Reich’s new book, Aftershock. The critical points of the book are well presented in his pre-publication New York Times op-ed piece. I will not be able to do justice to his work in

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The politics of Chinese adjustment

Michael Pettis — Wed, 29 Sep 2010 16:00:05 +0000

by Michael Pettis I am often asked, especially by my Peking University students, to list what I think is the sequence of steps China will take to address its economic imbalances. Remember that rebalancing, in the Chinese context, has a very specific definition. It means raising the consumption share of GDP. This is just a

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On German Worker Demands For Higher Wages and Other Links

Edward Harrison — Sat, 18 Sep 2010 22:00:27 +0000

YouTube – German Workers Demand Higher Wages as Economy Recovers Ingrid Betancourt: I still have nightmares | World news | The Guardian Gross’ Pimco makes $8.1bn bet against US deflation Mike Whitney: The Swelling Backlog Kevin O’Rourke – Lessons from the Great Depression Android on the march – National Post Real Estate Time Bomb?, David

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Secrets of the Moneylab

Claus Vistesen — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 09:30:38 +0000

Kay-Yut Chen and Marina Krakovsky have earned their colours as behavioural economists at Hewlett Packard in the HP Labs and in in their new book Secrets of the Moneylab they present the gist of their research over the past 20 years. The book is a run-through of the most salient aspects of behavioural economics and

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Wolfgang Munchau Has It (More or Less) Right

Edward Hugh — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 18:30:00 +0000

by Edward Hugh Well, having just posted a lengthy study of the German economy on this blog, I started to lazily browse my way around today’s economic news headlines, and Lo & Behold, what did I find over at the FT, a contrarian voice. That of Wolfgang Munchau. In his comment column he berates the

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The ‘Flations

Frederick Sheehan — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 19:30:34 +0000

Frederick Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession (McGraw-Hill, 2009). The incessant debate of whether the economy is inflating or deflating suffers from a vocabulary problem. This is as it must be since some (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben

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Save the Virgins!

Casey Research — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report This morning I read an interesting story in Soundings magazine. It recounted the final voyage of the S.S. Morro Castle, purportedly one of the safest ships afloat back in 1934 when it regularly transported revelers on junkets between New York and Havana. Then, on the night of

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