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Ray Dalio on Deleveraging

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 May 2012 12:51:43 +0000

Ray Dalio was featured in Barron's at the weekend. He spoke about the various options available to affect a private sector deleveraging. He sees three ways which he calls austerity, restructuring, and money printing. Below is an excerpt of his commentary

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Graphite: Time to Invest, or Flavor of the Day?

Casey Research — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 13:00:25 +0000

Graphite has been getting a lot of buzz recently, raising bullish expectations among some investors and even talk of a future bubble. Why? The price has risen steadily over the past couple of years and attracted a lot of attention. Let's have a look at why some market participants are excited about this mineral and see if it's worth our investment dollars

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Chart of the day: What’s driving US inflation?

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 01:30:49 +0000

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the U.S. increased 2.9 percent in February before seasonal adjustment. These BLS charts and table illustrate what is driving the increase

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Model on food prices and social unrest predicts crisis in 2013

Edward Harrison — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 21:30:49 +0000

The people at NECSI sent me the following interesting blurb on the relationship between rise food prices and social unrest

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The Protein Bomb

Niels Jensen — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 17:45:52 +0000

Question for you: Which distinctly British asset class has offered the most attractive returns over the past decade? Central London property? Not even close, even if it has done rather well. UK farmland is the answer, having more than tripled in value over a decade which will otherwise not be remembered for its outsized returns (see story here). The rise in farmland values is not only a British phenomenon. All over Northern Europe and North America farmland values have responded well to higher commodity prices. Last year alone, farmland prices in the US Midwest appreciated by 22% on average

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Chart of the Day: Don’t Blame the Gas Station for Price Spike

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 02:00:00 +0000

Here’s a cool graphic from the EIA on what drives the price of a gallon of gasoline in January 2012. We paid $4.20 last night in California!

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India: Land of Energy Opportunity

Casey Research — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 21:30:15 +0000

Quick, what country is the economic engine that will power world growth? If you answered "China," you're far from alone. But there's another country that deserves as much attention and better yet, is much friendlier to investment: India, home to 1.2 billion people. To electrify all those houses, power the industries that keep all those people employed, and fuel the vehicles that more and more Indians own, India's energy needs are shooting skyward

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Green Energy – Too Many Subsidies, Too Little Performance

Casey Research — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:00:36 +0000

Any politician who talks of a green, utopian US - where wind and solar produce most of our energy, electric cars put power back into the grid, green fields of corn produce clean fuels, and millions of Americans work in green technology factories - is creating a fanciful vision so far detached from reality it should really be called a lie. Such tales are designed to encourage a public that is increasingly despondent about the future, but the policy moves that have been made in support of these fantasies have cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars

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Chart of the Day: Market Year in Review

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 19:20:06 +0000

Wow! Who would of thunk it. The Dow the only major global equity index positive for the year. U.S. Treasuries up 15-20 percent, the dollar index (Dixe) positive; Brazil and Chinese equities down 20 percent and India down almost 25 percent. Copper was on everybody’s buy list at the beginning year, finished down over 20 percent; and foodstuffs had nowhere to go but north, finishing flat after spiking earlier in the year and taking most of the political leaders in North Africa with them

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Footnote 2011: Being cautiously optimistic was right

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 17:00:45 +0000

In January, I wrote my prognosis for 2011. The title was "Cautiously Optimistic Into 2011". I intend to write another post like this early in 2012 with asset allocation and market calls for the new newsletter. But right now I just want to review the basic outlook I presented. I had seven major conclusions. Here's what I said and how well it has stacked up

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