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India: Land of Energy Opportunity

Casey Research — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 21:30:15 +0000

Quick, what country is the economic engine that will power world growth? If you answered "China," you're far from alone. But there's another country that deserves as much attention and better yet, is much friendlier to investment: India, home to 1.2 billion people. To electrify all those houses, power the industries that keep all those people employed, and fuel the vehicles that more and more Indians own, India's energy needs are shooting skyward

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Green Energy – Too Many Subsidies, Too Little Performance

Casey Research — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:00:36 +0000

Any politician who talks of a green, utopian US - where wind and solar produce most of our energy, electric cars put power back into the grid, green fields of corn produce clean fuels, and millions of Americans work in green technology factories - is creating a fanciful vision so far detached from reality it should really be called a lie. Such tales are designed to encourage a public that is increasingly despondent about the future, but the policy moves that have been made in support of these fantasies have cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars

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Chart of the Day: Market Year in Review

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 19:20:06 +0000

Wow! Who would of thunk it. The Dow the only major global equity index positive for the year. U.S. Treasuries up 15-20 percent, the dollar index (Dixe) positive; Brazil and Chinese equities down 20 percent and India down almost 25 percent. Copper was on everybody’s buy list at the beginning year, finished down over 20 percent; and foodstuffs had nowhere to go but north, finishing flat after spiking earlier in the year and taking most of the political leaders in North Africa with them

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Footnote 2011: Being cautiously optimistic was right

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 17:00:45 +0000

In January, I wrote my prognosis for 2011. The title was "Cautiously Optimistic Into 2011". I intend to write another post like this early in 2012 with asset allocation and market calls for the new newsletter. But right now I just want to review the basic outlook I presented. I had seven major conclusions. Here's what I said and how well it has stacked up

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Nonlinear Thinking: The Robot Farmer

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 03:40:22 +0000

In the ongoing series of posts on technology's threat to existing labor roles, Global Macro Monitor highlights this video on robot farmers

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Thoughts on Europe and the global synchronised slowdown

Edward Harrison — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 15:00:01 +0000

We are in a second synchronised global growth slowdown. Moreover, the policy response must be more muted this go round as the public sector is more indebted and has less policy space than in 2008 or 2009. Expect policy inaction followed by fits of volatility due to inaction. This points to a risk off a lot more than a risk on environment

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Bubble Trouble in the U.S. Heartland?

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 18:00:51 +0000

The “smart money” has been buying up farmland hand over fist for the past few years and you can see how they helped drive up land prices in the U.S. heartland. Some think this is the place to be if the shit really hits the fan. Not gold, but productive assets that you can eat. Nevertheless, with ag commodities starting to rollover, farmland prices have probably seen their best days.

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The Ugly Chart Contest

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 18:00:00 +0000

Here’s a couple ugly charts we’re monitoring: China’s Shanghai Composite stock index and Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB). Do you think there’s causality here? Remember the “China is buying/hoarding every commodity” story

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Running through Italian default scenarios

Edward Harrison — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 15:30:47 +0000

The most important debate of our lifetimes is now ongoing. The question: Should the ECB “write the check’ for the euro area national governments? In thinking about the answer to this all-important question, I prefer to shift the focus by changing the verb “should” to “will”. Answering this slightly different question is much more important than answering the first question for you as an investor, a business person and as a worker. If the ECB writes the check, the economic and market outcomes are vastly different than if they do not. Your personal outlook as an investor, business person or worker will change dramatically based upon this one policy choice. The right question to ask then is: Will the ECB “write the check’ for the euro area national governments

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Chinese coal now costs over $150 per ton again – huge gap to Australian prices

Edward Harrison — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 15:45:11 +0000

The Ministry of Finance is pumping money like mad into the weakened Chinese financial sector, over 1 trillion yuan, in order to shore it up from the souring of loans from all of the malinvestment over the past few years. If the Chinese succeeded in engineering a soft landing, Andy Lees believes the record premium for Chinese coal would disappear as Australian coal prices started to play catch-up

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Gold and the Three McBears

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 14:48:16 +0000

Now the market must contend with three macro bears: 1) how much and how Asia slows; 2) the Eurozone debt crisis; and 3) the slowing U.S. economy and employment/political problem. Continued volatility and 1101, 1101, 1101 on the S&P500! Finally, we warned last week gold could take a big swan dive and $1,700 was where the “river meets the waterfall.” The chart below shows the yellow metal hasn’t been below its 200-day moving average in more than 2 1/2 years. The power of the rally has been stunning. We now think gold is set to test its 200-day moving average at $1,527, which is the level we will take a shot at getting long again

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The Biggest Bubble of All Time

Randall Wray — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 14:00:08 +0000

What is surprising is that over the past decade, the price rises you find for 33 commodities are just about beyond the realm of possibility—2, 3, and 4 standard deviations away from trend. It is a boom without any precedent. Quite simply, nothing even close has ever happened before, in any market, including hi tech bubbles and real estate bubbles

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Week in Review: Hurricane ‘I-Lean’ Lifts Markets

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 10:35:58 +0000

Reports that hedge funds, with almost no tolerance for short-term pain, have opened the biggest net short positions since early 2008 has driven a relatively low volume short covering rally. We even heard predictions of a 400 point drop in the Nasdaq if Mr. Ben didn’t announce QE3. We guess they were positioned for it and had a front row seat at Friday’s performance of the Nutcracker

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Is Resource Nationalism on the Rise?

Casey Research — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 08:00:12 +0000

According to an Ernst and Young (E&Y) report Business Risks Facing Mining and Metals 2011-2012, resource nationalism is the biggest risk companies currently face

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Global Trend Indicators

Edward Harrison — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 04:30:21 +0000

Two charts showing the latest trends in markets around the world

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Deal, Now What?

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 02:00:41 +0000

Almost everything that happened last week is irrelevant given what looks like a U.S. debt deal. What we’re watching is how the relief rally holds and whether the Friday’s poor GDP data was a game changer. Looking under the surface of the price action last week, it appears the market is starting to fret over the coming fiscal contraction into a soft economy. Note, the Russell was hammered the hardest, bonds rallied, and most commodities were lower

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China Gets Picky

Casey Research — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 00:16:59 +0000

It turns out that China is not willing to pay whatever it has to for energy and metal resources. Several resource deals have faltered in recent months, indicating an increasingly choosy Chinese perspective on energy and metal acquisitions. Add to that the growing concern that the global economy is once again stumbling and that commodity prices may be near a top, and you have a Chinese deal-making market that has gone from 60 to zero in no time

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After careful consideration, I remain bearish

Guest Author — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 15:00:51 +0000

The S&P has gone from 2 standard deviations below the 20-day moving average on the 16th June to 2 standard deviations above it now, something it did prior to the 87 crash when it rallied 6.4% in the week prior to the crash. It has been doing this more and more frequently recently although not of the scale of swing we have just seen. Our economists have already said that a single payroll figure is not sufficient to cause QE3 to which I agree. Commodity prices are telling us that further Asian stimulus is not going to happen unless offset by demand destruction elsewhere in the world. The risks are clearly mounting up

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What are the all-in costs of Saudi Production?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 16:45:45 +0000

Here’s an interesting note from UBS’ Andy Lees on the background story to the oil market. You may have heard that US President Obama decided to release some of the oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This move was bearish for oil, sending it way down in trading yesterday. The question then becomes how much of today’s oil price is based on the fundamentals and how much is based on Middle East tensions or speculation

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Limits of Monetary Policy

Marc Chandler — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 14:00:03 +0000

In this column, Marc Chandler argues that US monetary policy can be a powerful tool, but it has limitations. Some commodity prices have risen and some have fallen since the Federal Reserve signaled QEII. The anticipation of QEII did weigh on the dollar, but against some of the leading major currencies, the dollar was little changed net-net until the ECB shifted its monetary stance

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On the fragile recovery and the likelihood of QE3

Claus Vistesen — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 15:11:20 +0000

On balance it would then seem that the consensus remains weighed towards no QE3 either because it is not needed or because it does not work in the first place. I think it is very simple in the end though. If sideways movement gives way to a new downside in the market below key support levels it will be very easy for the Fed to argue for a new round of QE which I think they will deliver in due time.

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From cautious optimism to caution

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:30:27 +0000

I am more cautious than optimistic on risk assets and the global economy. From where I sit global growth prospects are not improving; they are weakening

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Here’s why Jim Rogers is bullish on Asia

Edward Harrison — Sat, 28 May 2011 14:00:38 +0000

Jim Rogers is bullish on Asia. In a twenty-minute interview with the BBC, he explains why? Hat tip Paul Kedrosky. Like Paul, "I find many of his rhetorical tricks maddening" but it is an informative interview nonetheless. Videos below

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Looking for debt

Michael Pettis — Thu, 26 May 2011 17:00:04 +0000

An unsustainable rise in debt is, for me, one of the key indicators that the investment-driven model has passed its useful life and is generating negative growth while posting positive growth numbers. This is why I spend so much time trying to understand debt levels and the structure of balance sheets

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This is why a global slowdown will hit by summer

Edward Harrison — Thu, 19 May 2011 01:30:10 +0000

So, the data are weakening. What does that portend for the rest of the year? Lakshman Achuthan of the ECRI thinks it means a serious global slowdown. Below is a recent interview he did on Yahoo's Tech Ticker explaining why

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Koo says QE2 drove speculation, but what about the real economy?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 May 2011 20:45:29 +0000

So, the Fed has basically just announced it will stop QE2. It will then start selling Treasuries. And remember, this is at the same time the Treasury is selling $10 billion a month in mortgage securities. Only after this will rates be hiked. That doesn't sound like a bullish scenario for risk assets. Bond yields could fall even though the Fed is selling if the economy swoons as a consequence

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Commodity Prices and Paradigm Shifts

Rick Bookstaber — Tue, 17 May 2011 00:00:00 +0000

People who are staring at a tsunami of demand for commodities from the developing world and predicting a doomsday of $400 oil and $4000 gold are missing the longer-term retreating tide of demand as citizens of the developed world actually demand decreasing amounts of energy, large goods, and heavy infrastructure. We won't be packing up and moving to Mars, as the science fiction solutions to resource depletion propose. We will pack up and move into the virtual world

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Felix Zulauf turns bearish, expects major correction and QE3

Edward Harrison — Sat, 14 May 2011 12:00:00 +0000

Barron’s Roundtable member Felix Zulauf spoke to the German-language Handelsblatt about the European sovereign debt crisis and financial markets in an article published today. Like Jeremy Grantham, he has turned bearish. Below is my translation of that article. Title: Italy is Next The euro will break apart. At least that is what stock market Guru

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Talking Large Cap Tech, Bonds, and Commodities on Stock Twits TV

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 May 2011 15:10:10 +0000

I spoke to Tadas Viskanta of Abnormal Returns on StockTwits TV about a lot of different issues this past week. We discussed commodities, bond market, QE, tech stocks, and a lot more. Here's the video below

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QE2: Captblogain, your ship is sinking

Guest Author — Thu, 12 May 2011 14:45:40 +0000

QE is, in fact, a ‘crop failure’ for the dollar. The Fed’s shifting of securities out of the economy and replacing them with clearing balances removes interest income. And the lower rates from Fed policy also reduces interest paid to the economy by the US Treasury, which is a net payer of interest. But the global markets mistakenly believed QE was producing a bumper crop for the dollar. They all believed, and some to the of panic, that the Fed was ‘printing money’ and flooding the world with dollars. Last week I suggested that higher crude prices were the last thing holding down the dollar, and that as crude started to fall I suggested it was all starting to reverse. It’s now looking like it’s underway in earnest.

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Speculators at risk as IEA confirms demand destruction has set in

Edward Harrison — Thu, 12 May 2011 13:48:33 +0000

A fall in commodity prices increases the potential for financial market disruption and non-performing loan problems in China

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Fundamental Bullish Commodities Story Still Intact

Edward Harrison — Tue, 10 May 2011 13:00:53 +0000

You have strong growth in emerging markets offset by weaker growth in the developed economies. Who wins this battle? For now, EM is winning and that is bullish for commodities over the near-term

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Dollar Selling Resumes

Marc Chandler — Mon, 09 May 2011 11:15:32 +0000

Dollar selling resumes as equities and commodities recover after US employment report Euro moves back near $1.44 after EU officials discussed further aid to Greece Dollar likely to remain on back foot this week; Growth currencies likely to outperform

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Market Review: Asymmetric Dollar Risks Ahead of NFP; Commodities Still Under Pressure

Marc Chandler — Fri, 06 May 2011 11:45:00 +0000

Dollar pares back some of its gains ahead of NFP; risk appetite marginally improves NFP is likely to surprise to the downside but a “big miss” needed for a large market move Commodity currencies remain in focus; RBA signals potential rate hikes

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What does Jim Rogers think about the silver crash?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 05 May 2011 20:30:01 +0000

"I hope that silver goes down for a while because it was turning into a parabolic move, every parabolic move ends badly, I hope that silver and all commodities continue to go up with normal corrections along the way and in 5 or 10 years, they're going to be unbelievably high prices and then I hope I'm smart enough to sell if the bull market is coming to an end." -Jim Rogers, on CNBC this morning before the rout

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