Credit Writedowns » China

Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:00:02 +0000

The year got off on a much better foot than might have been expected, at least as far as global manufacturing is concerned. So the fall in global manufacturing has flattened out, even though the bounce back has more of a dead cat look about it than anything else. As usual in recent months the report was very much a mixed bag

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Stephen Roach on US, the Fed, China, and Europe

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:00:02 +0000

Stephen Roach says the Fed is going all in in support of QE and I agree. But what else are they going to do? Look at Europe, for example. The ECB there has a hydra-headed problem with sovereigns and banks on the brink of insolvency and they too have expanded the balance sheet like mad. China faces many of the same challenges with excess credit growth and fragile financial firms in the face of asset price deflation

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On building debt

Michael Pettis — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:00:00 +0000

I am glad to say that the overinvestment thesis is much more widely acknowledged today than it was even two or three years ago, but one myth, I think, is that most of the overinvestment excesses in China are concentrated in the real estate sector. I have always argued that it is infrastructure where the most amount of investment has been wasted

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On the Collapse of the Shanghai Composite

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 19:00:00 +0000

Shanghai’s channel surfing Panda bears are speaking with a little higher pitch this weekend after getting their ‘hood caught in a vicious squeeze and reversal. The stock index has bounced 8.7 percent off its January 6th lows after falling 31 percent from last April’s 12-month high. The Shanghai was down 39 percent from its August ‘09 post-crash high before reversing earlier this month. Hugh Hendry nailed it

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Fear Factory: Jon Stewart on Foxconn

Edward Harrison — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 18:00:01 +0000

This is grim. Bill Black has the analysis; he thinks this is a criminogenic environment of control frauds

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Jim O’Neill: Chinese GDP numbers are “a blow for the hard landing guys”

Edward Harrison — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 16:30:25 +0000

There has been a lot of discussion about whether China's growth will slow enough to be considered a hard landing and what that would mean for the global economy and investors. Below is an account from Bloomberg featuring Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jim O'Neill that is more in the soft landing camp. O'Neill also talks about the European sovereign debt crisis and Greece

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Anti-employee Control Fraud

William Black — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 16:00:27 +0000

Apple has released a report on working conditions in its suppliers’ factories. It highlights a form of control fraud that criminology has identified but rarely discussed. I write overwhelmingly about accounting control fraud because it drives our recurrent, intensifying financial crises. The primary intended victims of accounting control frauds are the shareholders and the creditors. Other private sector control frauds target customers (e.g., George Akerlof’s 1970 article on “lemons”), and the public (e.g., the unlawful disposal of toxic waste, illegal logging, and tax fraud)

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China GDP grows at 8.9% in quarter through December 2011

Edward Harrison — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 12:15:56 +0000

That's a full percentage lower than Q1 2011. So clearly the Chinese economy has slowed in reaction to both global slowing and the Chinese authorities' attempts to cool asset and price inflation

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Protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:30:10 +0000

Happy Wednesday. I know the news is 'less good' today than it was when I last wrote you but writing these weeklies always puts me in a more positive frame of mind. Nevertheless, today's topic is about downside risk. My hope is to frame the economic scenario globally and then to offer some strategies of mitigating what I believe is significant downside investment risk

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Poll: Can China avoid a hard landing?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 21:10:21 +0000

There are a lot of different opinions on this one. What's yours

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Chart of the Day: The Shanghai Bounce

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 21:00:05 +0000

The Shanghai has put in its best two day performance since September ’09, rising 5.8 percent. After its post crash peak in August 2009, Chinese stocks have fallen almost 40 percent before hitting their lows last Friday

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If no trade reversal now, then when?

Michael Pettis — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 13:00:00 +0000

The best resolution, and the one Keynes urged without success on the US in the 1920s and 1930s, is that Germany take steps to reverse its trade surplus. It could boost disposable household income and household consumption by cutting income and consumption taxes. If Germany imposes austerity, unemployment will force the peripheral countries into the unenviable choice either of absorbing that surge in unemployment themselves, or of forcing the unemployment back onto the core countries by abandoning the currency that is at the heart of their lack of competitiveness

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PBOC Easing To Continue In 2012

Win Thin — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 02:20:48 +0000

With the Chinese New Year holiday period approaching, it becomes a bit harder to discern PBOC’s policy intentions. It typically adds liquidity aggressively ahead of the holidays, but this year it comes at a time when the central bank is embarking on what we see as a protracted easing cycle

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)

Edward Harrison — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 13:54:14 +0000

Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here's a brief version of the list

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012

Edward Harrison — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 14:12:47 +0000

Welcome to Credit Writedowns Pro. This is the first post in a series here. Let me start this Byron Wien-style and make a predictions list. Wien defines his surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which he believes have a more than 50 percent likelihood of occurring in 2012. That's how I am playing it too

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Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2012

Edward Harrison — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 13:45:35 +0000

As always, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish yet again - on both the US and emerging markets

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A Tale of Two Markets

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 07:13:05 +0000

The Shanghai has turned down this evening after opening up and looks to continue the downtrend. That is one ugly chart. Meanwhile, the S&P500 looks like it really wants to resolve its wedge formation to the upside. After a year of head fakes, bull and bear traps, traders may have lost a little trust in the charts, however. A good employment number on Friday may provide a nice catalyst for some resolution

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John Mauldin: The Matterhorn Interview

Guest Author — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 14:30:47 +0000

Investment advisor John Mauldin explains his attitude towards austerity measures; a return of the gold standard; the euro crisis; and the willingness to bailout everyone that makes capitalism and monetary systems stop working

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Japan and China: Small Beer

Marc Chandler — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 02:47:51 +0000

Understanding the financial agreement within the context of that rivalry is more important than what it means for the future of the dollar as the world's more important reserve currency, invoicing currency and vehicle currency. Nor will the agreement impact the outlook for either the yuan or the yen

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On the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operation and 2012 macro ideas for investors

Edward Harrison — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 20:30:42 +0000

The end of year is usually a good time for markets. There was a lot of angst about the European situation a few weeks ago, but there is less of that now because we're hitting year-end (tape painting). Does that mean the credit crisis situation is stable? No, but it has stabilised somewhat. 2012 will be a different story though. I talked about the European sovereign debt crisis and my themes for 2012 with Howard Green of BNN and Ryan Avent of the Economist yesterday. The link to the video is below but let me say a bit more, particularly about today's LTRO by the ECB. I'll try to be brief

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Chart of the Day: China’s Financial Architecture

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 22:00:49 +0000

Now the bubble is visibly bursting. How much damage will it do to the Chinese economy — and the world? That is our homework assignment over the holiday. Getting it right will determine 2012′s investment and trading returns, in our opinion. We leave you with an excellent flowchart and table from the IMF explaining China’s financial architecture

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Thoughts on Europe and the global synchronised slowdown

Edward Harrison — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 15:00:01 +0000

We are in a second synchronised global growth slowdown. Moreover, the policy response must be more muted this go round as the public sector is more indebted and has less policy space than in 2008 or 2009. Expect policy inaction followed by fits of volatility due to inaction. This points to a risk off a lot more than a risk on environment

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The 2012 Blind Side: China’s Housing Bust

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 14:49:10 +0000

Foreign Affairs has just posted a must read piece, "China’s Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped", which will sound very familiar to Global Macro Monitor readers. We’re going to be spend a lot time over the holidays thinking how this plays out in China’s financial sector and the implications for markets

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China: Lots of news, signifying nothing new

Michael Pettis — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 02:24:51 +0000

I don’t think there is a whole lot to say about this week’s numbers beyond what I have been saying for the past several months. Nothing substantial has really changed. China’s external account is worsening, and will continue to worsen since global imbalances have no choice but to adjust. Growth in China is slowing but remains relatively rapid, and as unhealthy as ever, but there is little likely to be done to improve the quality of growth until 2013. Beijing will continue veering back and forth between stomping on the credit accelerator and stomping on the credit brakes as the only way they can manage the economy

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News Links: Hendry’s ‘China short’ fund makes big returns as China Stocks Drop to 2-Year Low

Edward Harrison — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 19:52:39 +0000

Financial news links on China, technology companies, the eurozone debt crisis and more

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News Links: Yuan Limit Down for Ninth Straight Session

Edward Harrison — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 02:00:59 +0000

Financial news links for 12 December 2011 including stories on privacy, the European sovereign debt crisis, China and India

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The Ugly Chart Contest

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 18:00:00 +0000

Here’s a couple ugly charts we’re monitoring: China’s Shanghai Composite stock index and Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB). Do you think there’s causality here? Remember the “China is buying/hoarding every commodity” story

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Look for North America to Fade Euro Moves

BBH — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 12:47:52 +0000

The dollar is broadly weaker as sentiment improves in the wake of an agreement on fiscal integration. European officials have struck what appears to be significant agreement; one of the costs is a new split in Europe as the UK and others are not in agreement. UK trade deficits narrows but unlikely to change economic outlook; China’s inflation decelerates

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News Links: Economists see France losing AAA in 3 months

Edward Harrison — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 16:30:43 +0000

News links for 7 December 2011 featuring thoughts on a French downgrade, the austerity budget in Ireland, patents and China and other stories

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China and Europe

Marc Chandler — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 03:00:00 +0000

China has an interest in preventing the total collapse of the largest buyer of its exports, but it also has an interest in forcing Europe to divest its overseas assets. Chinese banks and companies are in a position to be a buyer of some of those assets

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House Prices Plunge in Chinese Ghost City

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 01:00:15 +0000

Could this be part of the reason the Shanghai was the only major index we track that was down last week

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Stephen Roach on the IMF bailout, Chinese banks and US consumers

Edward Harrison — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 02:17:42 +0000

Here’s a good all-encompassing Bloomberg TV video with Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach from Friday. He is not impressed with the IMF plans that the Europeans are working on, calling the numbers “chump change”. Roach also talks about the US and Chinese economies as well. The video is below followed by the copy from Bloomberg

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How do we know that China is overinvesting?

Michael Pettis — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 19:00:47 +0000

For years I have been arguing that the Achilles heel of the Chinese growth model is the unsustainable rise in debt that comes as a necessary consequence of capital misallocation fueled by bank lending. Capital misallocation, I argued, was the nearly inevitable consequence of high investment growth over many years in a system in which price signals are severely distorted and there is political incentive to maximize economic activity in the near term. If capital misallocation is funded by debt, the increase in debt is necessarily unsustainable

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News Links: European and Chinese Manufacturing Stalls, as US Advances

Edward Harrison — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 14:30:45 +0000

ISM – ISM Report – November 2011 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® "The PMI registered 52.7 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from October’s reading of 50.8 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 28th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 4.3 percentage points from October to 56.7 percent, reflecting the

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News Links: European and Chinese Manufacturing Stalls, as US Advances