Credit Writedowns » carry trade

Connect the Carry Trades

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 13:30:51 +0000

So, our friends, a few questions. Which rates are the result of financial repression, capital flows, and/or stellar credit risk? And what is the best carry trade, assuming you can borrow close to the sovereign

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Mrs Watanabe has amassed a large short yen position

Marc Chandler — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 13:27:48 +0000

Something interesting is being played out. Margin traders--the famed Mrs Watanabe-- at the Tokyo Futures Exchange--have amassed a large short yen position. There are about 900k short yen contracts as of today and about 364k are short yen against the dollar. This is the largest short yen long dollar positions since

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Financing world trade – Buy the dollar

Edward Harrison — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 15:30:31 +0000

Andy Lees argues insufficient dollars are getting into the system from the US current account deficit to finance the growth in global trade, so the stock of these international dollars is falling relative to the value of world trade. He says this means the dollars are either getting in through other means to finance global trade, or as appears to be happening over the last couple of months, global trade will have to slow

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The Carry Trade and Fed Swap Lines

Edward Harrison — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 14:30:30 +0000

The Fed is stuck at permanent zero and that means the carry trade is on. If we did have another panic, those swap lines would be handy because the Fed would again become the global lender of last resort

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Forexblog – Q&A on Macroeonomics, FX and all the Rest of It

Claus Vistesen — Thu, 10 Jun 2010 21:19:51 +0000

I was recently contacted by Adam Kritzer who is a lead editor on Forexblog which is arguably the best one stop resource for people interested in FX (trading) and the importance of foreign exchange in general. He asked me whether I would answer some questions about macroeconomics and FX markets. You can see his questions

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The Euro As A Carry Trade Funder … Surprising?

Claus Vistesen — Wed, 26 May 2010 16:40:00 +0000

Nothing is so bad, that it isn’t good for something. So goes an old adage in my home country (and I would imagine elsewhere too) and perhaps if hard-burdened Eurozone policy makers and investors are finding it hard to find any kind of (positive) silver lining in the current debacle, they may just want to

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Links: 2010-05-15 Gordon Gekko at Cannes and the carry trade unwind

Edward Harrison — Sat, 15 May 2010 13:16:12 +0000

Subscribe to Our News Feed If you would like to receive our links in real-time please follow me at @edwardnh. Must Reads Gordon Gekko is back at Cannes and he’s brought the 1980s with him | Film | The Guardian FT Alphaville – Gwen Robinson – The great Aussie-yen unwind Links Slump hits Mexican resort

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Liquidity Giveth, Liquidity Taketh – The IMF On International Capital Flows

Claus Vistesen — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 21:25:19 +0000

To be an economist these days is a rare privilege and especially; it is a privilege to be a blogging economist since there is just so much good material to write about at the moment. On the one hand, there is the unfolding unravelling of Goldman Sachs (loads of material out there already, but just

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Quantitative easing is not the cure to what ails Europe

Edward Harrison — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:47:57 +0000

"This is definitely a threat on the horizon," said Blaise Ganguin, the agency’s European credit chief. Some 75 companies large enough to be rated face likely default in 2010 as the slow-burn effects of the crisis hit home. The default rate peaked near 13pc this year, the highest since S&P began to collect data. This

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On the sovereign debt crisis and the debt servicing cost mentality

Edward Harrison — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:27:12 +0000

As we discuss sovereign debt levels, currencies and competitiveness, it bears remembering that interest rates are at the heart of many of these debates. To the degree debt service costs are the only measure used to determine how high a debt burden is, you are going to run into problems with low interest rates. The lower the rate of interest, the higher the debt load a given repayment schedule can service. Focussing only on debt service costs is clearly bubble mentality that led to huge credit growth in the household sector in the past decade. If this same mentality creeps into the debate on public sector debt burdens, expect the same results

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Marc Faber: "I don’t think that you’ll see gold below $1,000 per ounce probably ever"

Edward Harrison — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:10:12 +0000

Marc Faber is in a bullish mindset, particularly on gold. In a wide-ranging interview with CNBC TV-18 in India, Faber talked about where he sees markets headed and why he thinks gold will never drop below $1,000 an ounce. Private sector contracting while public sector expanding This is the frame that Marc Faber puts on

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China slams U.S. for inflating global asset prices via carry trade

Edward Harrison — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 00:40:37 +0000

On the eve of U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to China, a major Chinese official has criticized U.S. monetary policy in unusually harsh language. Liu Mingkang, China Banking Regulatory Commission chairman said the zero interest rate policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve posed a “new systemic risk.” Liu, using language reminiscent of warnings by NYU

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Hong Kong: “America is doing exactly what Japan did last time”

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:21:57 +0000

Hong Kong’s leader Donald Tsang has come out with a scathing criticism of U.S. monetary policy, comparing it to Japan’s which he believes contributed to 1997’s Asian crisis. This is the most direct and strident criticism of the U.S. Federal reserve’s monetary policy from a major international politician yet. Bloomberg reports: The Federal Reserve’s policy

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Is the U.S. dollar carry trade replacing the one in Japanese yen?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:39:45 +0000

Nouriel Roubini seems to think so. In remarks quoted via Bloomberg, he called the enormous increase in asset prices “the mother of all carry trades.” Investors worldwide are borrowing dollars to buy assets including equities and commodities, fueling “huge” bubbles that may spark another financial crisis, said New York University professor Nouriel Roubini. “We have

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The Dollar Carry Trade

Edward Harrison — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 03:56:13 +0000

One other reason to sell the dollar is interest rates. Why not borrow in dollars where interest rates are low and invest elsewhere where yields are high? This is what is known as the carry trade. In the past decade, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc were favorites for the carry trade because of

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Quantitative easing: printing money like mad to ward off deflation

Edward Harrison — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 04:00:00 +0000

In economic circles, there has been a lot of buzz about Quantitative Easing of late. Basically, the U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to near zero percent and the fear is that these cuts will not have enough effect on the willingness to lend in order to reflate the U.S. economy. Therefore, the Fed has decided to take more draconian measures, one of which is Quantitative Easing, flooding the economy with money

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The emerging markets crisis

Edward Harrison — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:08:00 +0000

Last night an article by Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners caught my eye. In it, he made a very strong case for worrying about European bank exposure to emerging markets and its potential for creating systemic risk. I would like to share some highlights from this well-written piece and add a few thoughts of

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Reverse carry trade borrowing is deadly

Edward Harrison — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:40:00 +0000

By now, you are familiar with the carry trade, where one borrows in one’s own currency in order to invest in higher yielding foreign assets, often times with significant leverage. The Japanese were famous for making this trade in Australian Dollars, U.S. Dollars, you name it. What a lot of people don’t realize that everyone

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The carry trade unwinds and it’s not pretty

Edward Harrison — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 02:00:00 +0000

Just as Japan is starting to unwind its carry trade, a new one might be forming in the form of 1% base rates in the United States. The carry trade was very popular amongst Japanese retail investors, especially using leverage (see article – hat tip Yves Smith). But, this trade unwound in a vicious way

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Chart of the day: Aussie – Yen cross

Edward Harrison — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 16:00:00 +0000

Of the major currencies, the Japanese Yen has been the strongest in the last few months, while the Australian Dollar has been the weakest. These two currencies have also been the most conspicuous in the Japanese carry trade. That trade is now coming unstuck, precipitating changes of epic proportions. For those of you who don’t

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Chart of the day: Japanese Yen

Edward Harrison — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 17:30:00 +0000

Although off its highs for the day, the Japanese Yen is still looking very strong against every major currency. Earlier, it pushed as high as 92 yen to the dollar. Jim Rogers was on Bloomberg saying it was headed much higher

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Chart of the day: US Dollar

Edward Harrison — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:00:00 +0000

Something dramatic is happening in the currency markets. I commented on this in my post "US Dollar rising dramatically." These currency moves are related to international dollar debt, the carry trade unwind and expected interest rate cuts due to slow growth

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US Dollar rising dramatically

Edward Harrison — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 14:45:00 +0000

The U.S. Dollar is rising once again. As the realization kicks in that the U.S. will not be alone in its economic struggles, currency traders are making major bets that interest rates will fall outside of the U.S. across the board. The British Pound, the Euro and the Canadian Dollar have all been losers. The

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A shift to Eastern Europe and emerging markets too

Edward Harrison — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 15:30:00 +0000

Yesterday, I made the case for us to be less concerned about the U.S. and even Western Europe, but to be very concerned about a slowdown in Asia. The reasons for this are simple: most analysts now understand the extent of problems in the U.S. and Western Europe. This, is part of the reason I

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U.S. Bailout: the mother of all carry trades?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 19:00:00 +0000

There are some great ideas out there about what the U.S. bailout is all about. Earlier, I mentioned my belief that it had everything to do with marking to market. Just a while ago, I caught a post that has a very intriguing angle on the plan: it’s the mother of all carry trades (hat

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The dollar rally spells trouble for some investors

Edward Harrison — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 17:45:00 +0000

It was about 4 weeks ago now that I said I thought the dollar rally was not a fundamental move, but a monster bear market rally which will end up hurting dollar shorts. Back then, the Euro was trading for 1.5164 dollars. Today, the Euro will only get you 1.426 dollars. That’s a move of

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Japan’s easy money policy was the trigger for the tech wreck

Edward Harrison — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 19:18:00 +0000

Most Americans would have you believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve was entirely responsible for the monetary conditions which created the mother of all stock market bubbles after the LTCM bailout. Yes, the Fed was complicit in the extraordinary rise of technology in the late 1990s. However, it was the Bank of Japan and its

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