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Grantham: Missing a bull market is a dismissible offense

Edward Harrison — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 20:00:10 +0000

Jeremy Grantham: "The central truth of the investment business is that investment behavior is driven by career risk. In the professional investment business we are all agents, managing other peoples’ money. The prime directive, as Keynes knew so well, is ﬁrst and last to keep your job. To do this, he explained that you must never, ever be wrong on your own. "

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[Premium] Daily Commentary: The macro surprise index is mean-reverting

Edward Harrison — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 16:35:31 +0000

This daily commentary is a bronze-level post. Barclays Capital has a US Macro Data Surprise Index and it was at all time highs in February. It has since dipped

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The Unlikely Bull Market

Niels Jensen — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:30:46 +0000

This is not the time to be fully invested but neither is it the time to be side lined. We are in a nervous market where great opportunities present themselves at regular intervals. We recommend holding 25-50% in cash or cash like instruments (depending on your risk profile) which can be deployed at short notice when those opportunities arise

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First Act of Greek Default Proceedings Drawing to a Close

Claus Vistesen — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 13:30:04 +0000

n the short term, one of the only remaining stumbling block in the form of the ongoing default proceedings in Greece seem to be no match for the ongoing positive animal spirit of the equity market. Only a week ago, we got news that talks in Greece had stalled, but most recently we have been reassured that talks are back on track

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The Facts They Don’t Want You to Know

Niels Jensen — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 15:30:03 +0000

If I told you that the composition of an average UK equity fund changes by 90% a year, would that startle you? How would you feel if I added that the 20 funds with the highest turnover returned just 4.7% to investors in the 3 years to the end of March 2011 whereas the 20 funds with the lowest turnover returned 16.8% over the same period? From the same source: Out of 1,230 funds across 12 different strategies, only 35 fund managers produced a performance consistent enough to earn their fund a place in the top quartile in each of the last three years (upper half of chart 1). In a universe of 1,230 funds, over a three year period and completely disregarding skill, the expected number of funds consistently ranked in the top quartile is 1,230*0.253=19.22. In other words, more than half the 35 managers were there not because of skill but because, statistically, someone was always likely to ‘over-achieve’

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Point of Maximum Pessimism?

Niels Jensen — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 13:22:25 +0000

We have been structurally bearish on equities since Absolute Return Partners was established in 2002. ‘Structurally bearish’ does not imply that we, or our clients, have had no exposure to equities throughout this period. Neither does it mean that we have been expecting equities to post a loss every year for the past nine years. No, ‘structurally bearish’ is a term we (and others) use to express our view on multiple trends. In a structural bear market, price/earnings (P/E) ratios decline; i.e. corporate earnings need to outgrow the decline in valuations for equities to post positive returns. Equity investors are swimming against the tide, so to speak. Now, nine years after having made that call, we begin to spot real value again with European equities trading at 9.4 times trailing 12-month earnings and 7.6 times next year’s earnings (see chart 3). A price-to-book value just below 1 and a dividend yield of 5.3% does not exactly make the value story any less compelling

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Gold is the New Deutsche Mark

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 02:16:38 +0000

We’re not taking a victory lap here but think gold is now in the midst of a massive repricing as a legit global currency/store of value. Central banks are buying even at prices north of $1,500 per ounce. These are strong hands and not the flippers that can take it down $200 in a nanosecond. The main risk we see to gold in the short term is that its gains could be tapped for margin calls to cover bad positions by, say, the levered set or other stressed institutional investors. A spike in real short term interest rates due to sovereign credit concerns in the major countries, for example, is another major risk, but we don’t this as an issue for sometime

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