Credit Writedowns » Britain

Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX

Marc Chandler — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 14:00:00 +0000

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires futures traders to identify whether they have an underlying business interest (commercials) or if they don't (non-commercials). Here are seven take-aways from the most recent report that covered the week through January 17th

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Chart of the Day: Developed economies’ debt levels by sector

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 14:00:41 +0000

This is a great chart below via the Wall Street Journal. It shows the total debt to GDP ratios for the largest developed economies in the world broken down into four sectors: households, non-financial corporations, financial institutions and government

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Euro Slides Ahead of BOE and ECB Meetings

Marc Chandler — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 12:30:29 +0000

The euro was recovering in early Europe, moving back toward the upper end of its recent narrow range and it reversed course sharply, triggering stops along the way as it dropped nearly a cent to $1.2695. The technical failure yesterday at $1.2820 may also have been more telling. News from the German stats office that its economy may have contracted 0.25% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 is a bit disappointing as some hoped for stagnation

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The expansionary fiscal contraction bust

Edward Harrison — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 21:15:25 +0000

If you argue that austerity works in cutting deficits over the longer-term but the short-term pain is worth it, that's a different argument than the one Republicans are making - and one not likely to get one elected, which is why they're not making it

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The ABCs of Re-hypothecation in Gold and Securities Markets: What You Need to Know

Casey Research — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 01:49:32 +0000

The downfall of MF Global has exposed yet another patch of the underbelly of the brokerage industry. Practices that are routine and legal – and hitherto largely unknown to most investors – can leave a company vulnerable when abused

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A Deep Seated Hostility Towards European Construction?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 13:30:00 +0000

The British decision to veto the proposed new EU treaty is not surprisingly provoking an avalanche of commentary this weekend. Among journalists, at least, there seems to be a consensus that David Cameron committed some kind of major diplomatic blunder. Possibly this is so, but given the difficulties presented by having to take this agreement forward outside the formal structure of the EU, it is hard to not reach the conclusion that both Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have been guilty if not of a similar blunder, then at least a major error of judgment

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Three Key Developments

Marc Chandler — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 13:00:00 +0000

Three events took place last week that will shape the general investment climate in the weeks and months ahead

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Risk Off Monday

Marc Chandler — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 12:30:58 +0000

The US dollar is firm against all the major and emerging market currencies. Equity markets are lower, giving back all of Friday's gains and more. The euro has dropped 1% and the next level of support is seen near $

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Liquidity is the Word

Marc Chandler — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 17:00:43 +0000

Tomorrow the central banks will auction dollars for the first time under the lower rates. There was some talk that the lower take down at this week's regular refi operation (about 13 bln less euros than were maturing from last week's operation) was due to the fact that participants are anticipating taking up dollars tomorrow. It may seem counter-intuitive, but the larger the participation tomorrow the more risk-on (in whatever limited way ahead of Thursday ECB meeting and Friday's summit) insofar as banks would secure their dollar funding in a less disruptive way. The smaller the take down, the more dysfunctional the system may appear

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News Links: Draghi – If fiscal policy becomes hawkish, monetary policy will be dovish

Edward Harrison — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 14:31:16 +0000

News links from 2 December 2011 include links on the European sovereign debt crisis, the UK economy, the latest on mortgages and technology as well as other stories.

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News Links: European and Chinese Manufacturing Stalls, as US Advances

Edward Harrison — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 14:30:45 +0000

ISM – ISM Report – November 2011 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® "The PMI registered 52.7 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from October’s reading of 50.8 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 28th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 4.3 percentage points from October to 56.7 percent, reflecting the

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News Links: Central Banks Take Joint Action

Edward Harrison — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 14:30:45 +0000

Financial news links for 30 November

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News Links: Osborne to Fund Infrastructure Projects as UK Retail Sales Fall

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 14:30:40 +0000

News links for 28 November

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News Links: BofA Clash With Fannie Mae Escalates Over Loan Buyback Stance

Edward Harrison — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 14:30:46 +0000

BofA Clash With Fannie Mae Escalates Over Loan Buyback Stance – Bloomberg Bank of America Corp. (BAC) told Fannie Mae it refuses to cooperate with the U.S. mortgage firm’s new stance on loan buybacks, setting the lender up for a potential surge in claims and penalties. EU’s Barnier: Tougher rules must precede euro bonds |

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Chart of the day: Definitive guide to the European debt web

Edward Harrison — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:08:15 +0000

The BBC has a terrific chart tool that gives you a good feel for exactly how much the sovereign debtors in each of the European countries owes and to which other countries. The great thing about this chart is that it also shows you the debt flows outside of the European periphery i.e. for France and Germany, as well as for Japan, the US and Britain in both directions

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Nigel Farage: ‘Germany is dominating Europe’

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 16:00:01 +0000

The well known eurosceptic Nigel Farage is having a field day over the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone. Farage says that the EU lacks democratic legitimacy, a complaint heard ever more often during this crisis. He goes further, saying political puppets are being put into place right across the euro zone. He sees this as a demonstration of a "German-dominated Europe", something he believes the euro was supposed to prevent

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Key data to focus on in the week ahead

Marc Chandler — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 14:20:51 +0000

Economic data has been of tertiary concern to the market recently, overwhelmed by the drama in Europe. Given that the drama may die down, with new governments in Greece and Italy, the economic data may become somewhat more important

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Class Warfare and Revolution (Circa 1850)

Rick Bookstaber — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 04:00:00 +0000

By Rick Bookstaber In a recent post I discuss six policies that spurred the Industrial Revolution in England – opening up immigration, weakening the guilds, investing in infrastructure, privatizing agricultural land, forcing a move to new energy sources, and policies for bringing capital to the new, capital-intensive technologies – and suggest that these policies have

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Sketch of Week’s 6 Key Events and A Few Things to Monitor

Marc Chandler — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 01:55:55 +0000

Risk appetites returned in a big way in October, as equities, emerging markets, commodities and currencies all generally advanced and smartly so, recouping much of the ground lost in September. The events in the week ahead will likely set the tone for the month of November. They include three central bank meetings (RBA, Fed and ECB), two data points (UK Q3 GDP and US employment report) and the G20 summit

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Fed Outgunned, EMU Outflanked

Claus Vistesen — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 18:00:07 +0000

The auxiliary objective of QE by the Fed is to weaken the USD. Herein lies the rub. Quite simply, with the recent announcement by the BOE of another round of QE worth £75 billion, with the ECB now willingly or unwillingly being forced into increased support of peripheral debt markets and with the BOJ also pledging more stimulus, the Fed is starting to look like the conservative central bank in the G4. Even if Merkel and Sarkozy, and rightly so, appear most concerned with putting pressure on Italy, the most significant issue remains Greece which is now in default a fact that was un-sanctimoniously confirmed by the leaked bailout document which has the Troika admitting that the medicine they were mandated to administer would only make the patient worse and not better

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UK real wages are falling

Edward Harrison — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 17:50:54 +0000

These numbers are well under the inflation rate and show British consumers becoming victims of stagnating and negative real wage growth

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BOE and ECB: What It Means and What is Next

Marc Chandler — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 17:53:11 +0000

The Bank of England, which has a penchant for surprising the market, chose not to wait for the quarterly inflation report to provide cover, and announce GBP75 bln additional bond purchases over the next four months. We forecast sterling to finish the year near $1.50. However, in the near-term there is scope for additional position adjusting. A move above the $1.5500-50 area could target $1.57 before sellers re-emerge. The ECB focused on liquidity measures, including a 12- and 13-month long-term refi operations and 40 bln euro covered bond purchases. The ECB did not cut rates as many had expected. Short-term European rates back up smartly, with the euribor futures strip yields rising 9-13 bp. We expect the euro to finish the year near $

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A Tale of Policy Shifts as the UK goes QE2

BBH — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 11:43:33 +0000

Sterling plummets as BoE surprises the market with QE announcement; global stocks, oil advance. All eyes turn to Berlin for Trichet’s last meeting in the hopes of a policy announcement. BoE announcement see QE larger and earlier than many expected; Swiss inflation increases

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Chutes and Ladders: Preview of BOE and ECB Meetings

Marc Chandler — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 14:45:24 +0000

The outcome of the Bank of England meeting will known first. Based on the dovish cast to the Sept BOE minutes and some recent comments, within the context of generally soft economic data, there is speculation that the BOE can resume its asset purchases program with a GBP50 bln purchase over the coming few months. This seems to be the consensus. If the ECB does cut rates this week, the euro may respond positively as it may be associated with boosting risk appetite, especially ahead of the US jobs report, where the private sector is expected to have created about 90k jobs, half of which may be accounted for by returning strikers. A failure to cut rates may be euro negative on grounds that the crisis in the periphery is likely to worse, without easier monetary policy. Indeed both the ECB rate hikes this year triggered new widening in peripheral spreads over bunds

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Hugh Hendry on the economy and the sovereign debt crisis

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 17:43:33 +0000

We’ve reached a very rare moment in economic history where the problem is greater than the ability of the politicians to respond

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What can we learn from the policies that spurred the Industrial Revolution?

Rick Bookstaber — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 16:25:55 +0000

Some of the dominant policy issues of today – immigration, energy, the emergence of China – have their analogues in the great Industrial Revolution. The key government policies that laid the foundation for the Industrial Revolution in England include supporting the immigration of skilled workers, allowing for private ownership of farm land, weakening the unions of the day (the guilds), and addressing the energy crisis (in charcoal). And contrary policies in Italy and Spain – countries that were far wealthier and advanced than was per-Industrial Revolution England – derailed a similar revolution from occurring in continental Europe. England would not have been anyone's first bet as the cradle of the Industrial Revolution

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Holders of Sovereign Debt

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 03:00:28 +0000

Here’s a great chart just released by the International Monetary Fund for Greece, Portugal, and Ireland as well as Japan, the US and the UK. Note that almost half of the US federal government debt is held by the Federal Reserve and the government itself, such as the Social Security trust fund. Add to that the 22 percent foreign official holdings (mainly central banks) and almost 70 percent of the debt of the U.S. government is held by non-market/non-profit oriented investors

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Additional US dollar liquidity-providing operations over year-end

Guest Author — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 15:00:43 +0000

A statement by the Bank of England on market liquidity to be provided in co-ordination with other major international central banks

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Increase in UK take home pay more subdued

Edward Harrison — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 15:45:04 +0000

Disposable personal income gains are moderating. In the UK, where the increase in consumer prices is the most elevated in the G7, income in real terms is declining and that has led to a gloomy picture of the UK economy’s prospects

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Underwhelming Policy Response Continues

Marc Chandler — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 11:15:36 +0000

Markets stable but tone remains fragile. SNB expanded its sight deposit target; no EUR/CHF peg. BoE’s decision to stay on hold was unanimous. New measures announced by China boost CNY internationalization and integration with

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After the FOMC, Norway and the UK

Marc Chandler — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 14:26:44 +0000

If the Fed does not do anything new, Bernanke and Co. risk disappointing the market and the fallout that may follow. QE3 at this juncture does not seem a likely and few observers disagree. After the FOMC meeting is out of the way, the policy focus will shift the Norway and the

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Stagnant growth in UK take home pay

Edward Harrison — Sat, 06 Aug 2011 13:00:26 +0000

Annual growth on the VocaLink Public Sector Take Home Pay Index stands at 1.3% and in the private sector, growth has fallen to 2.9%

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What Bernanke should have said?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 15:30:28 +0000

These questions sound like Congress thinks the US will be the next Greece. And that makes them likely to turn the US into the next Japan. The Congressmen almost never ask questions. They are statements posed as questions to get Bernanke to back their ideological position. Here’s what Bernanke should do when he doesn't want to answer questions. Why doesn't he just do this: point to the debt ceiling debate and say to every single question he’s asked

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Britain: public sector income growth lags private sector after pay freezes

Edward Harrison — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 21:00:31 +0000

Below are the findings of the recently released VocaLink Public Sector Take Home Pay Index. The VocaLink Take Home Pay Indices measure after-tax income as opposed to pre-tax gross income. So they are designed to reflect what Americans call disposable personal income

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Britain: public sector income growth lags private sector after pay freezes originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Britain: public sector income growth lags private sector after pay freezes