Schroeder: Gist of Whitney’s Muni Forecast ‘Valid’

Alice Schroeder, a former Wall Street analyst and the author of the only approved biography of Warren Buffet, has Meredith Whitney’s back. She says the macro view that Whitney presents on U.S. states and municipalities is largely correct. Her view is that many with a vested interest in the muni market staying afloat are tearing

Jim Grant Sees Interest Rate Risk in Munis

Jim Grant’s contention is that you don’t need to be a stargazer to be worried about Munis. You just have to look at the low interest rates.  In his view, bond yields do not compensate buyers for the interest rate risk, let alone other risks like problems with municipal finances. He likes higher yielding Mortgage

Gross: Central Banks are Robbing Bond Holders and Fuelling Inflation

In this segment on Bloomberg with Tom Keene just after the jobs report was released yesterday morning, Bill Gross continues hammering away at the central banks’ easy money monetary policies, the main point of his last newsletter. His contention is that government has four ways to rob bondholders of return:

1. Outright default, something he says unlikely in the U.S.
2. Currency depreciation: Gross contends this is a problem for the U.S. currency
3. Unanticipated inflation: Gross believes the core vs. headline inflation numbers highlight this issue
4. Negative real interest rates: His newsletter was very much about this point.
Published by Edward Harrison on 5 February 2011 12:30

Bill Gross: Devil’s Bargain

Bill Gross is at it again. The bond king who has taken a populist turn is out with another monthly investment commentary that features a negative view of Wall Street (God’s work) and Federal Reserve monetary policy. I want to hone in on the Fed piece

Some Thoughts On Potential Greek Debt Restructuring

By Win Thin Here are some more thoughts regarding a possible Greek debt restructuring, which was reported today by the Greek press. Reports suggest that the EU, IMF, and the ECB have reached a basic understanding that a Greek debt restructuring is inevitable and that haircuts on principal as well as extensions of maturities to

Some Thoughts On The Debt Dynamics In Europe

By Win Thin In its Fiscal Monitor published in November, the IMF makes a crucial point about growth rates and debt dynamics. It points out that the larger the differential for any country between real interest rates (borrowing costs) and real growth (with the differential defined as r – g), the larger the increase in

Illinois is No Peter Pan

Frederick J. Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession  (McGraw-Hill, 2009) and "The Coming Collapse of the Municipal Bond Market"(Aucontrarian.com, 2009) "I’ll never grow up, never grow up, never grow up, Not me!" -Peter Pan, Lyrics from play

Europe – Lacking Proper Diagnosis, Cure Remains Elusive

By Marc Chandler and the BBH Currency Strategy Team Europe’s debt crisis remains among the most important factors in the global capital markets. By some market-based measures, like interest rate spreads and credit default swap prices, the crisis is more acute now than it was before an assistance package was belatedly cobbled together for Greece.

Buiter: There are no absolutely safe sovereigns

There are no absolutely safe sovereigns — ‘rates analysis’ has to be done simultaneously with ‘credit analysis’ for all sovereigns, including the G3. There are likely to be several sovereign debt restructurings in the euro area (EA) in the next few years. Liquidity support should not stop this; only permanent bail-outs would. The sovereign debt

Bill Gross: Deficit Hawk, Bond Vigilante

By Edward Harrison American politicians and citizens alike have no clear vision of the costs of a seemingly perpetual trillion-dollar annual deficit. Policy stimulus is focused on maintaining current consumption as opposed to making the United States more competitive in the global marketplace. Dollar depreciation will sap the purchasing power of U.S. consumers, as well

The Verdict on US Bond Yields?

By Claus Vistesen Just before we turned the clock on 2010 I commented on the recent increase in US yields and noted the following simple issue; How investors perceive and interpret [rising yields] will determine great many things; is it a reflection of higher growth in the future and thus a sooner than expected normalisation

Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011

I have just finished reviewing Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010. Now, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish again. Enjoy.   -Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of The Ten Surprises for 2011. This is the 26th year Byron has given his predictions