• Bill Gross, Felix Zulauf, Fred Hickey, Archie MacAllaster and Scott Black from Barron’s 2011 Roundtable 24 Jan 2011
• Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! Business Roundtable and Challenger 6 Oct 2011

• News Links: Big, Cheap Solution In Europe 12 Nov 2011
• News Links: The Real Reason Germany Doesn’t Want The ECB To Print Money 26 Nov 2011
• Monday Links on America’s Seduction, Europe and Bernanke’s Money Printing 6 Dec 2010

• Bond Market Vigilantes 27 Mar 2011
• It is Krugman who has shined the headlights on the difference between a currency issuer and a currency user 21 Dec 2011
• BBH CurrencyView: Euro Gets Some Relief, for Now 20 May 2010

• Bill Gross: This economy requires a check from the government 6 Feb 2009
• Bill Gross: It’s all about jobs and growth in the US 3 Aug 2011
• Bill Gross: Government intervention in markets will last 4 May 2009

• Pimco’s Gross and El-Erian: Seeking Alpha in Brazil and South Korea Over U.S. 5 Oct 2010
• Bill Gross: Sell equities and buy Treasuries 21 Sep 2009
• Bill Gross on fiscal profligacy and dumping the negative real yields of treasuries 31 Mar 2011

• Text of Schwarzenegger letter to Paulson 3 Oct 2008
• Jim Chanos: short sellers are heroes 25 Sep 2008
• The $700 billion Paulson Plan is dead on arrival 23 Sep 2008

• More on the currency wars and negative real rates 28 Apr 2011
• Bill Gross on fiscal profligacy and dumping the negative real yields of treasuries 31 Mar 2011
• Japanese government has negative net asset value 22 Feb 2010

• Gold at record high, silver at 31-year high as inflation and negative real yields bite 15 Apr 2011
• Bill Gross on fiscal profligacy and dumping the negative real yields of treasuries 31 Mar 2011
• Morgan Stanley expects 10-year yields to rise 220 bps in 2010 20 Nov 2009

• Rosenberg thinks U.S. market may Test March lows 21 May 2009
• John Hussman: Expect meagre returns in an overvalued market 14 Dec 2009
• Zulauf: Marching Full Speed into Calamity 9 Jul 2011

• Bill Gross: Government intervention in markets will last 4 May 2009
• Bill Gross: Sell equities and buy Treasuries 21 Sep 2009
• Bill Gross and the deficit ring of fire 26 Jan 2010

• Obama’s Debt Ceiling Doubletalk 12 Jul 2011
• Debt Ceiling Showdown Coming 12 Apr 2011
• Debt Ceiling Breached 16 May 2011

• Bill Gross and the deficit ring of fire 26 Jan 2010
• The $1 trillion deficit: has Bill Gross gone crazy? 30 Jun 2008
• Bill Gross: Deficit Hawk, Bond Vigilante 5 Jan 2011

• Rosenberg: U.S. unemployment rate headed for 12.0-13.0% 11 Nov 2009
• The PBoC can’t easily raise interest rate 28 Jul 2010
• Low savings, high debt and interest rate policy 17 Jul 2008

• Gross: The new normal for “the next 10 years and maybe even the next 20 years” 1 Sep 2009
• Punishing Savers and Theft Amongst the Elderly 4 Apr 2011
• Bill Gross: Devil’s Bargain 2 Feb 2011

• BBC: Why you should care about the ‘currency wars’ 10 Nov 2010
• Currency Wars To Be Feared—Not Celebrated 7 Oct 2010
• Currency Wars: A View from the Trenches 10 Oct 2010

• Bill Gross: Sell equities and buy Treasuries 21 Sep 2009
• Bill Gross: Devil’s Bargain 2 Feb 2011
• Bill Gross: Deficit Hawk, Bond Vigilante 5 Jan 2011

You have to watch this video to believe it. The speculation in the commodities market is well out of hand. Cotton futures are at a record high on speculation that demand in China will continue to increase, as China is the world’s largest importer of cotton. Add in the flooding in Australia and you have the makings of a rally driven by fundamentals but bolstered and amplified by speculation.

Bloomberg explains in the video below.

• China Speculation Key Driver 21 Jun 2010
• China: Surplus Shrinks, Reserves and Credit Grow Amid Speculation on Revaluation 13 Oct 2010
• Paul Krugman: Liquidity trap makes future ‘more or less speculation’ 13 Jun 2009

In this segment on Bloomberg with Tom Keene just after the jobs report was released yesterday morning, Bill Gross continues hammering away at the central banks' easy money monetary policies, the main point of his last newsletter. His contention is that government has four ways to rob bondholders of return:

1. Outright default, something he says unlikely in the U.S.
2. Currency depreciation: Gross contends this is a problem for the U.S. currency
3. Unanticipated inflation: Gross believes the core vs. headline inflation numbers highlight this issue
4. Negative real interest rates: His newsletter was very much about this point.

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/02/gross-central-banks-are-robbing-bond-holders.html/feed/ 6 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/02/bill-gross-devils-bargain.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/02/bill-gross-devils-bargain.html#comments Wed, 02 Feb 2011 13:15:50 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=25797 Bill Gross is at it again. The bond king who has taken a populist turn is out with another monthly investment commentary that features a negative view of Wall Street (God's work) and Federal Reserve monetary policy. I want to hone in on the Fed piece

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/02/bill-gross-devils-bargain.html/feed/ 2 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/bill-gross-felix-zulauf-fred-hickey-archie-maccallaster-scott-black-barrons-2011-roundtable.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/bill-gross-felix-zulauf-fred-hickey-archie-maccallaster-scott-black-barrons-2011-roundtable.html#comments Mon, 24 Jan 2011 16:30:00 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/bill-gross-felix-zulauf-fred-hickey-archie-maccallaster-and-scott-black-from-barrons-2011-roundtable.html Here are a bunch of the participants from this year's Barron's Investor Roundtable discussion talking to Michael Santoli about the ideas they expressed

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/bill-gross-felix-zulauf-fred-hickey-archie-maccallaster-scott-black-barrons-2011-roundtable.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/comments-by-faber-gross-roach-and-grantham-on-the-political-economy.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/comments-by-faber-gross-roach-and-grantham-on-the-political-economy.html#comments Mon, 17 Jan 2011 21:00:50 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=25493 Over the past several days, I have caught some very good commentary by a number of well-known financial industry experts. I wanted to share my own thoughts with you on their commentary, especially in light of my last posts on Eisenhower’s Farewell Address and The New Monetary Consensus. I have featured two of the commentaries

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/comments-by-faber-gross-roach-and-grantham-on-the-political-economy.html/feed/ 16 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/bill-gross-deficit-hawk-bond-vigilante.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/bill-gross-deficit-hawk-bond-vigilante.html#comments Wed, 05 Jan 2011 14:27:10 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=24638 By Edward Harrison American politicians and citizens alike have no clear vision of the costs of a seemingly perpetual trillion-dollar annual deficit. Policy stimulus is focused on maintaining current consumption as opposed to making the United States more competitive in the global marketplace. Dollar depreciation will sap the purchasing power of U.S. consumers, as well

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/bill-gross-deficit-hawk-bond-vigilante.html/feed/ 10 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/emerging-markets-win-aggregate-demad-slow.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/emerging-markets-win-aggregate-demad-slow.html#comments Wed, 01 Dec 2010 13:54:44 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/emerging-markets-win-aggregate-demad-slow.html The debt overhang in the developed world has lowered aggregate demand globally. As developed economies compete over a dwinding pie by moving toward a policy of economic nationalism, investment opportunities will dwindle. Bill Gross advises looking to the emerging economies instead

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/emerging-markets-win-aggregate-demad-slow.html/feed/ 2 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/pimcos-gross-and-el-erian-seeking-alpha-in-brazil-and-south-korea-over-u-s.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/pimcos-gross-and-el-erian-seeking-alpha-in-brazil-and-south-korea-over-u-s.html#comments Wed, 06 Oct 2010 03:40:06 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=21050 Gross says that Pimco is looking to high growth economies for both bond and equity plays. The key for them is not to play the liquidity seeking return trade (like 100-year Mexican paper). Rather they want to find low volatility, high return plays – and they see this more in Emerging Markets like South Korea

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/pimcos-gross-and-el-erian-seeking-alpha-in-brazil-and-south-korea-over-u-s.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/letter-from-a-washington-conference-room.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/letter-from-a-washington-conference-room.html#comments Fri, 20 Aug 2010 19:00:08 +0000 Annaly Salvos http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=19329 By Michael Farrell, Annaly Capital Management My fellow mortgage market participants, On Tuesday, I attended the “Conference on the Future of Housing Finance” hosted by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan in the Cash Room at Treasury. I believe Annaly was invited because we have been actively engaged in

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/letter-from-a-washington-conference-room.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/gross-urges-full-nationalization-of-housing-finance.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/gross-urges-full-nationalization-of-housing-finance.html#comments Wed, 18 Aug 2010 12:00:29 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=19282 From Bloomberg: Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. should consider “full nationalization” of the mortgage- finance system as the Obama administration plots the revival of a market that was at the center of the 2008 credit crisis. “To suggest that there’s a large place

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/gross-urges-full-nationalization-of-housing-finance.html/feed/ 2 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/bill-gross-on-stimulus.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/bill-gross-on-stimulus.html#comments Sat, 31 Jul 2010 11:00:00 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/bill-gross-on-the-economy-economic-stimulus-and-bonds.html Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., recently wrote that he now takes a less optimistic view of what he dubs "Keynesian consumption remedies." As a result, he talks to Bloomberg about the possible need for more, non-fiscal, economic stimulus in the wake of James Bullard’s call for

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/bill-gross-on-stimulus.html/feed/ 9 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/bill-gross-on-demographics.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/bill-gross-on-demographics.html#comments Thu, 29 Jul 2010 15:45:00 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=18969 I have enjoyed Edward Hugh and Claus Vistesen’s posting here as well as on their own sites because they add a European angle to the commentary I think we lacked. But, they also have brought their considerable interest in demographics to bear in their writings as well. So I was happy to see Bill Gross

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/bill-gross-on-demographics.html/feed/ 1 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/pimco-seeking-alpha-equity-returns-europe.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/pimco-seeking-alpha-equity-returns-europe.html#comments Tue, 06 Jul 2010 15:00:00 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=18370 The bond guys PIMCO have decided to move into equities. They are doing so cautiously.  I mentioned some comments they made by Gross regarding safe, high dividend stocks like utilities. At the time, he was suggesting almost all asset classes appeared to be overvalued on a long-term basis, which may explain his move into higher

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/pimco-seeking-alpha-equity-returns-europe.html/feed/ 1 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/its-the-debt-stupid-bill-gross-edition.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/its-the-debt-stupid-bill-gross-edition.html#comments Wed, 30 Jun 2010 20:00:00 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=18173 On Monday when I wrote Why Stimulus Is No Panacea, I mentioned that I had written two posts in the past entitled "It’s the debt, stupid" (read them here and here). Just as the Clintonites of 1992 pointed to the economy as the Elephant in the political room, Team Obama should have been pointing to

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/its-the-debt-stupid-bill-gross-edition.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/gross-is-it-possible-to-get-out-of-debt-crisis-by-increasing-debt.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/gross-is-it-possible-to-get-out-of-debt-crisis-by-increasing-debt.html#comments Wed, 26 May 2010 17:59:36 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=16373 Bill Gross is a bond guy. And in the bond world, the return of capital counts for a heck of a lot more than the return on capital. So, naturally, with debts being socialized from the private to the public sector, Gross has been asking himself and his investors first and foremost which countries will

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/gross-is-it-possible-to-get-out-of-debt-crisis-by-increasing-debt.html/feed/ 9 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/gross-disagrees-with-buffett-finds-ratings-agencies-nonsensical.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/gross-disagrees-with-buffett-finds-ratings-agencies-nonsensical.html#comments Wed, 05 May 2010 13:58:11 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/gross-disagrees-with-buffett-finds-ratings-agencies-nonsensical.html While Warren Buffett is out tarnishing his reputation with quotes about how "phenomenal" the ratings agencies’ business model is, Bill Gross is accusing them of aiding and abetting the financial crisis. Here’s a quote from Bill Gross’ latest monthly missive. In it, he is quite dismissive of the ratings agencies and implies they were enablers

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/gross-disagrees-with-buffett-finds-ratings-agencies-nonsensical.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/03/gross-american-style-capitalism-of-wealth-as-printing-lending-and-borrowing-has-reached-a-dead-end-buy-t-bills.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/03/gross-american-style-capitalism-of-wealth-as-printing-lending-and-borrowing-has-reached-a-dead-end-buy-t-bills.html#comments Wed, 24 Mar 2010 13:00:47 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/03/gross-american-style-capitalism-of-wealth-as-printing-lending-and-borrowing-has-reached-a-dead-end-buy-t-bills.html I must say, Bill Gross is really sour on events in the United States these days. His monthly works are getting more and more populist. And it’s interesting to see how he can segue from his introductory populist screed into a cogent investment analysis. This month, Gross goes Warren Buffett on us with a Squanderville-like

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/03/gross-american-style-capitalism-of-wealth-as-printing-lending-and-borrowing-has-reached-a-dead-end-buy-t-bills.html/feed/ 3 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/03/can-you-get-out-of-a-debt-crisis-by-piling-on-another-layer-of-debt.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/03/can-you-get-out-of-a-debt-crisis-by-piling-on-another-layer-of-debt.html#comments Mon, 01 Mar 2010 15:49:37 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/03/can-you-get-out-of-a-debt-crisis-by-piling-on-another-layer-of-debt.html That’s the question on everyone’s mind and the one Bill Gross of Pimco attempts to answer in this month’s Investment Outlook. He starts out defining the problem as a lack of aggregate demand – the Keynesian understanding of depression. To begin with, let’s get reacquainted with the fundamental economic problem of our age – lack

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