I have been making bullish noises of late, but I am fully cognizant of all the downside risks.  So for the sake of presenting both sides to this argument, I want to highlight the ‘dark’ side in this post based on a book I have just read.
If you are an American investor or just an [...]

Has the bear market come to an end? It is certainly hard to say. In January, I called for 10% down in U.S. equities, which is basically where we are now (7900 on the Dow vs. the present 7776). My view has been that we would break through 2002 and 1998 lows [...]

This prediction does make for a scary headline and gets Louise Yamada some buzz. But, Yamada is a technical analyst and is saying absolutely nothing about the fundamentals here. You should also note that Jeremy Grantham has said similar things about the S&P hitting 450.

After another brutal day in the market, whether the market is bottoming does not seem like the question on most people’s minds. Ten stocks declined for every one up today — and on heavy volume. Retail investors are clearly switching into cash and bonds judging from the recent price action. Yet, an increasing number of long-time bears are becoming ever more bullish as the market declines. Witness famous investor Steven Leuthold.

The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 both closed at levels not seen in nearly twelve years. Despite a ‘bailout rally’ for the financials in the morning, the day was marked by heavy selling with the Dow down to 714 and the S&P ending the session at 743.

We are in a secular bear market. What this means for many pensioners or for many about to become pensioners is great uncertainty about the quality of their retirement. I expect this uncertainty to translate into anger regarding the move from defined benefit pensions to defined contribution pensions. Whether a policy response results depends on how stocks do over the next few years. Nevertheless, in my estimation, we are about to understand that human psychology and defined contribution plans are at loggerheads.

Jim Chanos, the famous hedge fund guru and short-seller does not think stocks are going to be up for long.  He sees the recent rally on the back of promised government stimulus as temporary and expects markets to resume their downward course.  In fact, he is now shorting cement as a play on continued weakness [...]

You think things are bad where you were. Well, then, take a look at Ireland. Irish punters are really taking it on the chin. Stocks are down 75% from their peak in February 2007. This makes 2008 the worst year for Irish equities since 1793, according to a report from Bloxham Stockbrokers.

James Montier, a market guru usually known as a permabear has turned bullish of late. In keeping with my bullish sentiments, I have posted his thoughts below according to Bloomberg News.

That said, I should always qualify my ‘bullishness.’ I still believe we are in a bear market and that equities will go lower on an inflation-adjusted basis. Investing only in index funds is a bull market strategy to be avoided like the plague. However, there are many stocks trading for 3 and 4 times earnings like Valero Energy or Chevron that deserve a look – Montier obviously agrees. This is shaping up to be a value investor’s dream.

The renowned money manager Jeremy Grantham has had his first television interview ever with Consuelo Mack on Mack’s program WealthTrack. Below is the video from that interview. Mack has promised to make a longer video available to those who subscribe to her podcast. Please find the podcast audio link here and the podcast video link here.