In my last post, I presented you with a bunch of data on debt levels broken down by sector of the economy (see “A brief look at the Asset-Based Economy at economic turns”).  I found it interesting that a secular pattern seemed to be at play when looking at the household debt charts.
Notice the three [...]

Below is a wide-ranging interview with Marc Faber over four videos on CNBC TV18 in India explaining view on inflation, currencies, commodities, stocks and more.
Asset-based economy. In general, he thinks we are in an inflationary environment, whereas I think that deleveraging is secular and means any inflation is only cyclical. But he shares my belief [...]

This comes via TheStreet.com and Doug Kass, a noted market strategist:
Many strategists (both bullish and bearish) assume that a fair value P/E multiple — based on interest rates and inflation — rests at about 15.5 times. Averaging the 2009 and 2010 S&P consensus forecasts produces a melded $67.50 S&P EPS, a year-end target of 1045 [...]

So we started September in an ugly way. With the markets down 2% across the board, and oil and bond yields also falling.  Forgive me for thinking this is a bad sign, but selling on good news doesn’t sound very bullish.
  And the ISM data definitely was bullish. Production 61.9 – Yay! New orders [...]

You have probably noticed a change in tone at Credit Writedowns since about June, but a lot more in the past month or so. Once mildly bullish due to the deeply oversold levels this Spring, I have become increasingly alarmed at the unjustified strength of the recent market rally.
My most recent post explaining my concern, [...]

Jeremy Grantham is out again with a very important investment strategy piece entitled “Boring Fair Price!”  He leads off by talking about how markets went from extremely overvalued a year ago to cheap back to a state which he considers fair value.  But, he sees the recent rally as a speculative rally which is a [...]

 
Here’s a nice clip from Stephen Roach from last week asking “where’s the demand?” 
His thesis is pretty simple:  we have an inventory-induced upturn that might actually show positive GDP growth in the U.S. for Q3, what I have termed the mother of all inventory corrections.  But, that’s it.  Underneath this is no discernible pickup [...]

This comes via David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff.

The week that was After four weeks of decline with a total loss of 7.0%, the equity market turned in a like-sized gain this past week re-igniting the bulls. With tech leading the way, the Nasdaq has managed to rally to a [...]

Marc Faber was quoted in June as saying he expects a major move in financial markets, but is unclear which directions markets will turn.  His statements suggest to me he could be advising clients to go long volatility in anticipation of market turbulence.  This would usually be accomplished by buying options in high beta assets [...]

I have introduced the concept of a technical recovery to describe the anticipated weak recovery period that lies ahead.  Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt have a different term to remember: Partial recovery.  They see the potential that a partial recovery will end this business cycle, and that’s not bullish for stocks:
Recessions end when the National [...]