Share
This morning you may have read Gideon Rachman’s positive view on Hungary.  He said the panic is all but over and it looks like Hungry is going to get through this debt crisis.
The horror scenario envisaged a Hungarian banking collapse that would ripple back into the rest of Europe and then around the world. Many [...]

Share
Today I saw two blurbs about Eastern Europe which I want to pull together with a bit of added commentary about the automakers in the U.S.  The first blurb had to do with the Baltics and their probable downgrade to junk by the ratings agencies.  This is what Win Thin, a Senior Currency Strategist at [...]

Share
The first time I wrote about the Baltics was back in August in a post entitled, “Are the Baltics the new Argentina?.” Since then, things have gotten progressively worse and the Baltics are clearly in Depression with Latvia leading the way to the downside. The credit ratings agencies have caught on to this [...]

Yesterday, Latvia was downgraded to junk. Despite its diminutive size, this is a big deal. Fist, it is a harbinger of what is to come for the rest of Eastern Europe. But, more importantly it is a signal that Western European banks lending in the former Soviet Bloc are overexposed and threatened by large loan losses. In a global economy in which European banks lend at home, but also have significant U.S. mortgage debt and Eastern European loan exposure, events in Latvia will have a snowball effect.

While the EU, IMF and World Bank are all busily drafting up crisis solutions, the videos below should give a little colour on what this means for the economy, credit and investing.

Here is yet another post from early last year which presages all of the problems we are seeing today. As I have often written, the fake recovery is just an attempt to paper over these problems. It won’t work. Where Ireland, Switzerland, Austria or the Baltics were front and center in February 2009, Greece, Spain and Portugal are now. But don’t think those other problems have gone away. As with Northern Rock, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, contagion spreads to the weakest link – which either passes the test (usually with external aid) or collapses. And then it’s on to the next weakest link. That’s how crises work. This one is no different.

As this deepest of recessions takes hold, an increasing number of countries are seeing outbreaks of civil unrest. First it was Greece. Later, we saw unrest in the Baltics in Riga and Vilnius. Now, Iceland is experiencing the same. These countries are amongst the hardest hit economies. Therefore, we should see these episodes as a harbinger of what is to come unless government can prevent this downturn from deepening.

The riots on the streets of Vilnius and Riga in the Baltics are not being covered in the least in the U.S. media (Hat tip Ken). I believe they should because, as with Greece, the social unrest we are witnessing in those countries is the likely outcome of failed economic policies and depression. This was certainly the case during the Great Depression, even in the United States. While we are not seeing Argentina-level social unrest, these events are forerunners of a more ominous social climate.

A friend living in Latvia wrote that he was “stunned by the chaos that broke out in Riga this evening.” I had heard absolutely nothing about it until he told me. Apparently, a peaceful protest outside Parliament turned bloody when the police started to crack down on protesters. 126 people were arrested. (Hat tip: Ken)

The question on everyone’s mind in the emerging markets is who will blow up next. Arnab Das of Dresdner Kleinwort Benson takes a stab at answering that question. He targets the Baltics as the problem children and sees current account surplus nations in Asia as lest vulnerable. He also discusses his views on Russia.

Below is the video with him on CNBC giving forth his view.

Has Paul Krugman been reading my stuff? He is certainly thinking like me regarding emerging market risk. He has a post today talking about Latvia as the new Argentina.