Credit Writedowns » Austrian Economics

[PREMIUM] The Ultimate QE is the Fed’s Coming Purchase of Real Assets

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 19:35:43 +0000

I would bet on near-systemic collapse before the Fed starts either asset purchases or Congress resorts to fiscal activism. But eventually, the Fed is going to purchase more than just treasuries. They will purchase a lot of financial assets and probably some real assets as well

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On Ideology, economics and the compatibility of Chartalists and Austrians

Edward Harrison — Mon, 02 May 2011 15:30:23 +0000

Below is a framework that delineates the ideology and economics of two groups of economic thought that are much talked about in the wake of the Credit Crisis: the Chartalists and the Austrians. These two groups are considered outside of the mainstream and this is important because many economists and market pundits in both camps predicted the global credit crisis while almost no mainstream economists did. The questions are why and what separates them from mainstream Keynesians and Monetarists and from each other

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Austrians and MMTers should be on the same side

Guest Author — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 14:45:35 +0000

Austrians and MMTers should be on the same side. After all, both camps understand the relationship between money and credit, and both understand the full ramifications of having fiat money. They should be on the same side arguing against economists who argue that demand can be created by flooding the banking system with reserves, and both should be on the same side arguing against those who think that increasing inflation expectations is an effective way to get an already over-indebted economy to take on more debt

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Fight of the Century: Keynes vs Hayek Round Two

Edward Harrison — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 12:00:45 +0000

These Hayek – Keynes videos are hilarious (hat tip Barry Ritholtz). This one is called "Fight of the Century" - sort of like Marvelous Marvin Hagler against Sugar Ray Leonard

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Lawrence White on Friedrich von Hayek

Edward Harrison — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 14:00:00 +0000

I caught this video along with the Keynes video I just profiled. Look at this as a rebuttal to some of the themes Lord Skidelsky went through in that previous video. Lawrence White explains the genesis of the Austrian Theory of Boom and Bust in two parts. The two run fifteen minutes in total, concentrating

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The Conundrum of Central Bankers

Annaly Salvos — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 23:45:00 +0000

by Annaly Capital Management An interesting recent piece by Reuven Glick and Kevin J. Lansing of the San Francisco Fed looks to explain changes in the savings rate over time. On an aggregate level, the authors point out that the savings rate is mostly a function of: 1. Wealth – if I’m already wealthy, I

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Why the U.S. economy is weak

Edward Harrison — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 19:00:33 +0000

My friend Rob Parenteau says "most professional investors are high frequency macro data and short run asset price driven." He basically means they have no real macro analytical framework to use when making investment decisions. Rob says "it is just a video game for them, where they trace and extrapolate the recent momentum." Rob is

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David Tice Says Double-Dip Recession ‘In the Cards’ for U.S.

Edward Harrison — Sat, 31 Jul 2010 09:00:00 +0000

David Tice, chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. He sees a double dip coming and argues against stimulus to prevent it, saying policy makers shouldn’t act as “Good Time Charlie” preventing the deleveraging of U.S. households. Related Posts David Tice: All bearish, all

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On Crises of Capitalism

Edward Harrison — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 21:00:00 +0000

Great video detailing explanations for why the financial crisis happened. Big hat tip to the Pragmatic Capitalist. I like this first aspect of the video and I LOVE the drawings. Very cool. Of course, you know that you’re going to get another view which the author of the video says is the right one. He

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Why Stimulus Is No Panacea

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 14:13:11 +0000

I fully support deficit spending as a means to prevent a debt deflationary spiral in a deep downturn. However, there are limits to what stimulus can actually do. Stimulus is no panacea for an unbalanced economy. In particular, when large imbalances build up, deficit spending is limited and can actually perpetuate the existing imbalances and

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The Stimulants and the Austerians and the War on Double Dips

Edward Harrison — Mon, 21 Jun 2010 02:52:58 +0000

This week I have decided to do the weekly review both as a links post and in narrative form. I have already posted the links of the most-read articles (see them here). In this weekly review narrative, I want to discuss the never-ending double dip narrative in the US from a different angle than last

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A Speech: “Chairman Greenspan: A Fiat Mind for a Fiat Age”

Frederick Sheehan — Thu, 27 May 2010 17:34:16 +0000

Frederick Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession (McGraw-Hill, 2009). A speech delivered at the Ludwig von Mises Institute Conference: "Austrian Economics and the Financial Markets," held at the University Club in New York City, May 22, 2010.

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Keynes Vs. Hayek: Old Ideas for a New Era

Marshall Auerback — Tue, 13 Apr 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Marshall Auerback here with some further thoughts from the Institute for New Economic Thinking’s recent kick-off conference at Cambridge University. It might appear ironic to commence a conference ostensibly centered on new economic thinking with a discussion of two economists who did their greatest work more than 70 years ago. But it speaks both to

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Lessons from Japan on sovereign default and balance sheet recessions

Marshall Auerback — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 19:29:15 +0000

Edward wrote a piece about Japan’s government net asset value falling below zero. He thought it would make sense if I gave you an alternative view using Richard Koo’s latest thinking about the Japanese experience, especially given the parallels to the U.S. regarding balance sheet recessions. Before I get to Koo, I should add that,

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We are all Austrians now

Guest Author — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 15:00:00 +0000

The following is a post which first appeared at the Big Picture from Paul Brodsky & Lee Quaintance who run QB Partners, a private macro-oriented investment fund based in New York. — We Are All Austrians Now Things are different this time, as they always are. The great difference between today’s capital markets and those

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Credit crises, market equilibrium, economic policy and fiat currencies

Edward Harrison — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 19:09:12 +0000

In the wake of news about President Obama’s new Too Big to Fail Tax and Barry Ritholtz’s post on it, I had an in-depth conversation on the issue with a whole group of people, including Barry. Most of the group was all for the tax. I am not, as I recently laid out in an

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Revisiting the sectoral balances model in Japan

Edward Harrison — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 15:21:52 +0000

On a number of occasions, I have pointed to the sectoral balances model of finance to help demonstrate what happens when the government sector runs a deficit or a surplus. A recent article in the Financial Times by Martin Wolf on Japan’s woes highlights this subject and demonstrates how government deficits balance private sector saving.

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Bubbles, Employment and Recalculation

Edward Harrison — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 18:47:04 +0000

Calculated Risk has a post out today called Bubbles and Employment. The gist of the post is that interest rates play a role in creating bubbles as demonstrated by data on employment and common property yard-sticks like price-to-rent and price/earnings ratios. The graphs presented make the case quite well. CR finishes the article saying: Since

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Looking at structurally high unemployment as recalculation

Edward Harrison — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 18:44:59 +0000

Unadjusted jobless claims after the holiday season are always monstrous because of seasonality. Last week 645,571 people filed initial claims for unemployment insurance in the United States. That is down from the 731,958 who filed at this time last year. Looking at the seasonally adjusted numbers, claims rose from to 434,000 last week from 433,000

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Why economists failed to anticipate the financial crisis

Edward Harrison — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 07:00:57 +0000

About three months ago, Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman took a stab at explaining why economists didn’t anticipate the worst financial crisis in three-quarters of a century. His was a long piece, taking up eight pages and 6,000 words at the New York Times website. His overview was certainly one of the best in

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The year in review at Credit Writedowns – Kleptocracy

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:30:31 +0000

Yesterday, I indicated I would write a few thematic posts as a look back at some of the more important economic topics that this credit crisis has uncovered. Tying posts together in a theme definitely gives a better holistic view of a the themes than the posts do in isolation. But I also enjoy writing

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Financial News: 2009-12-23

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 15:36:00 +0000

Watchdog fines Depfa €250,000 over suspected breach of rules – Independent.ie Gold slumps to seven-week low Geithner Voices Confidence About Economic Rebound : NPR FT.com – Glencore bond deal paves way for IPO (For a company that looked headed for collapse this time last year, this is a remarkable turnaround – thanks to a rebound

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The year in review at Credit Writedowns – Stimulus

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 15:43:24 +0000

As we approach the new year, I have decided to write a few thematic posts as a look back at some of the more important economic topics that this credit crisis has uncovered. The thinking is that tying posts together in a theme might give a better holistic view of a few themes than the

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Moving away from stimulus happy talk to focus on malinvestment

Edward Harrison — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 15:06:45 +0000

For the period leading up to the panic last year, I had been warning of a rather severe recession. My view at the time was that what was needed was a realignment of America’s industrial organization away from finance and housing where serious overinvestment meant many firms would fail and asset prices would fall.This turned

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A few thoughts about the limitations of government

Edward Harrison — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:09:31 +0000

In this post: A few thoughts about the limitations of government Our founding fathers How large should government be? How policy helps frame the debate Where we are headed In a recent post, “Stop the madness now!” I voiced my growing concern with the direction in which the country is headed. I am not alone

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Steve Keen: Debt and the economy – how do we pay for all of this?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:38:25 +0000

Hat tip Rolfe Winkler. Related Posts Steve Keen and the spectre of terminal debt 15 Sep 2009 Steve Keen: On the Edge with Max Keiser 21 Sep 2009 Steve Coll talks Pakistan with Charlie Rose 20 Mar 2009 More About: Austrian Economics, bubbles, credit crisis, debt, Economics, financial history, Hyman Minsky, journalism, media, recession, Steve

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I am now moving from multi-year recovery to a double dip baseline

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:39:12 +0000

The motivating factor? this article in Politico: President Barack Obama plans to announce in next year’s State of the Union address that he wants to focus extensively on cutting the federal deficit in 2010 – and will downplay other new domestic spending beyond jobs programs, according to top aides involved in the planning. The president’s

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Japan: stimulus without reform leads to a policy cul de sac

Edward Harrison — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:46:29 +0000

If one wants to see what happens when you use stimulus to help keep zombie companies alive and to resist reform efforts, look no further than Japan. For twenty years now, Japan has been dealing with the consequences of a burst asset bubble in shares and property. And for twenty years, the body politic has

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Hayek: “I am not only against inflation but I am also against deflation.”

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 13:21:31 +0000

Steve Horwitz had an interesting read last week on Friedrich von Hayek, the Nobel Prize winning Austrian School economist. Von Hayek is best known for his 1944 Libertarian call to arms “Road to Serfdom” and is generally considered one of the fathers of the free market ideology. In Horwitz’s piece, he points out that Hayek

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Freshwater versus saltwater circa 1988

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 18:55:03 +0000

As a follow-up to my post on debt and it’s exclusion as a subject of merit amongst several schools of economic thought, I wanted to bring a New York Times article from 1988 to your attention. This article by Peter Kilborn, a Washington, D.C. based and long-time former correspondent for the New York Times, is

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The origin of the U.S. dollar as legal tender and its link to Depression

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 16:00:00 +0000

I have been very interested in the concept of legal tender of late because of the revelation this summer that the State of California was issuing I.O.U.’s to honour its debts instead of paying in U.S. Dollars, which are legal tender and I.O.U.’s from the U.S. government (see posts here and here). What I found

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Ron Paul on CNN America Morning

Edward Harrison — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 21:17:19 +0000

Ron Paul was on CNN this morning talking about unemployment, the credit crisis, the Federal Reserve and a lot more. Related Posts Morning Links: 2009-08-21 21 Aug 2009 Morning Links: 2009-09-02 2 Sep 2009 Paul Tudor Jones: Trader – Flashback to 1987 28 Jul 2009 More About: Austrian Economics, bankruptcy, central banks, credit crisis, journalism,

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News from around the web: 2009-09-04

Edward Harrison — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 04:00:00 +0000

Putting the ‘change’ back in “change you can believe in”: The two faces of Barack Obama – Marshall Auerback Is this the Warren Christopher Presidency writ large? Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Marshall Auerback argues that the divide-and-compromise approach is dead-wrong for Obama. Blog You! – Barry Ritholtz This is a video clip I sent Barry. I

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Bank leverage: forever blowing bubbles part two

Edward Harrison — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 19:39:48 +0000

You have heard me use the phrase “liquidity is seeking return” to describe the increase in the price of riskier assets due to monetary stimulus. The Bloomberg News video clip below points to an increase in lending for buyers of riskier loans like high yield and mortgage bonds. The blurb below from the associated article

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News from around the web: 2009-07-27

Edward Harrison — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 04:03:00 +0000

The Sector Financial Balances Model of Aggregate Demand—Revised – Scott Fullwiler A great but dense analysis of the 1990s expansion and the present fiscal crisis Hotter weather fed growth of Incan empire – New Scientist Incan and Mayan history is fascinating South Korean Consumer Confidence Rises to a Seven-Year High – Bloomberg.com Yet more evidence

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