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Ludwig von Mises on Austrian Business Cycle Theory

Edward Harrison — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 17:36:15 +0000

Yesterday, John Carney at CNBC had a nice little post comparing Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis with some of the thinking by Friedrich von Hayek behind Austrian Business Cycle Theory. John rightly points to this passage as "a theory about banking as an endogenous destabilizer of the economy." And this certainly fits with the Minsky view of the world. von Mises takes the view that it is in having "bank notes without gold backing or current accounts which are not entirely backed by gold reserves, the banks are in a position to expand credit considerably". Nevertheless, whether you believe the genesis of the credit expansion is Federal Reserve interest rate policy, animal spirits, fiat currency or fractional-reserve banking, what should be clear is that it is the lower rate of interest that creates the credit growth. The question is whether this lowering of rates is beneficial over the long-term. Vom Mises argues it is not

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[Premium] Quick thoughts on Fed policy and the potential for QE

Edward Harrison — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 17:13:33 +0000

Last August, the Fed went for what I call "rate easing". If the economy weakens this year what will it do? I am not convinced it will be quantitative easing. In general, I think the Fed, while looking to support the growth side of its dual mandate, wants to look to the data before acting since monetary policy acts with a lag. This post is about those policy concerns and about what Fed policy has already done. Private portfolio preferences have shifted considerably. An article in today's Wall Street Journal "Junk Bonds Feed a Hungry Market" shows the way, with a lot of quotes about people reaching for yield because Treasury yields have been suppressed

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MMT for Austrians

Randall Wray — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 01:30:17 +0000

We (also) do not want black helicopters flying around dropping bags of cash; and we (also) oppose government “pump-priming” demand stimulus—the libertarians and Austrians and even Milton Friedman are correct in their argument that this would generate inflation. Come to think of it, MMTers have more in common with Austerians than with “military Keynesianism” that supposes that high enough spending on the defence sector will cause full employment to “trickle down”. Most MMTers believe we’d get intolerable inflation before the jobs trickle down to Harlem. But can we “afford” full employment

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[Premium] The Ultimate QE is the Fed’s Coming Purchase of Real Assets

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 19:35:43 +0000

I would bet on near-systemic collapse before the Fed starts either asset purchases or Congress resorts to fiscal activism. But eventually, the Fed is going to purchase more than just treasuries. They will purchase a lot of financial assets and probably some real assets as well

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On Ideology, economics and the compatibility of Chartalists and Austrians

Edward Harrison — Mon, 02 May 2011 15:30:23 +0000

Below is a framework that delineates the ideology and economics of two groups of economic thought that are much talked about in the wake of the Credit Crisis: the Chartalists and the Austrians. These two groups are considered outside of the mainstream and this is important because many economists and market pundits in both camps predicted the global credit crisis while almost no mainstream economists did. The questions are why and what separates them from mainstream Keynesians and Monetarists and from each other

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Austrians and MMTers should be on the same side

Guest Author — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 14:45:35 +0000

Austrians and MMTers should be on the same side. After all, both camps understand the relationship between money and credit, and both understand the full ramifications of having fiat money. They should be on the same side arguing against economists who argue that demand can be created by flooding the banking system with reserves, and both should be on the same side arguing against those who think that increasing inflation expectations is an effective way to get an already over-indebted economy to take on more debt

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Fight of the Century: Keynes vs Hayek Round Two

Edward Harrison — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 12:00:45 +0000

These Hayek – Keynes videos are hilarious (hat tip Barry Ritholtz). This one is called "Fight of the Century" - sort of like Marvelous Marvin Hagler against Sugar Ray Leonard

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Lawrence White on Friedrich von Hayek

Edward Harrison — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 14:00:00 +0000

I caught this video along with the Keynes video I just profiled. Look at this as a rebuttal to some of the themes Lord Skidelsky went through in that previous video. Lawrence White explains the genesis of the Austrian Theory of Boom and Bust in two parts. The two run fifteen minutes in total, concentrating

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The Conundrum of Central Bankers

Annaly Salvos — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 23:45:00 +0000

by Annaly Capital Management An interesting recent piece by Reuven Glick and Kevin J. Lansing of the San Francisco Fed looks to explain changes in the savings rate over time. On an aggregate level, the authors point out that the savings rate is mostly a function of: 1. Wealth – if I’m already wealthy, I

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Why the U.S. economy is weak

Edward Harrison — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 19:00:33 +0000

My friend Rob Parenteau says "most professional investors are high frequency macro data and short run asset price driven." He basically means they have no real macro analytical framework to use when making investment decisions. Rob says "it is just a video game for them, where they trace and extrapolate the recent momentum." Rob is

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