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Chart of the Day: Australian Credit Growth Has Collapsed

Edward Harrison — Thu, 03 May 2012 17:00:20 +0000

If you look at the rate of growth in credit, it tells you something. When it hits an inflection point i.e. when credit growth peaks and begins to decelerate, investors should take it as a harbinger of declining GDP and a signal to shift assets toward risk-off trades. Right now, Australia is demonstrating some serious softness in credit growth as the chart below attests

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[Premium] Daily commentary: The global growth slowdown catches India and Australia

Edward Harrison — Tue, 01 May 2012 14:28:41 +0000

The global growth slowdown began in the second half of 2011. I flagged it as a trend last May. When I updated my view in December, my concerns were Europe, China, India and Australia. And this is still the case

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Australian House Prices down 10% from Peak

Steve Keen — Tue, 01 May 2012 12:26:07 +0000

Australian house prices peaked in June 2010. The motive force behind Australia’s bubble was the same as in the USA and Japan: accelerating debt drove rising house prices during the boom. Now in both those countries, decelerating debt is driving house prices down. The same pattern applies in Australia

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[Premium] Australian house prices down 1.1% Q-o-Q

Edward Harrison — Tue, 01 May 2012 01:48:29 +0000

Last week I said I would do a better job of tracking the Australian housing market as my prediction for 2012 is that it is a bubble which will pop

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[Premium] Tracking My List of Ten Surprises for 2012

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 14:26:09 +0000

I thought now would be a good time to see how my ten surprises for 2012 are tracking as we are nearly a third of the way through the year. I posted these as my first weekly newsletter and these are events that have 1-in-3 odds of happening but which I believe have a more than 50 percent likelihood of occurring in

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Dollar Broadly Stronger on Turnaround Tuesday

BBH — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 11:41:03 +0000

The dollar is broadly higher today, and reflects a Turnaround Tuesday from the previous two days of dollar weakness. Italy's Monti has won well-deserved praise since replacing Berlusconi, but his most challenging test begins in earnest today as he meets with union leaders to work out a deal on labor reforms. The AUD is amongst the weakest currencies on the day. Indonesia exceeded its targeted sales of sovereign debt in an auction today, placing IDR7.3 trln vs. the indicative target of IDR6 trln. Meanwhile, BRL is likely to take it on the chin today after sharp losses were seen near the end of trading yesterday

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Why I Like the Australian Dollar

Marc Chandler — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 20:00:25 +0000

The Australian dollar held support in the middle of last week near $1.04. Japanese retail and institutional investors, always yield hungry have taken a new look, especially as they begin trying to diversify away from the Brazilian cash register

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I am not bullish but I am not bearish either

Edward Harrison — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 13:50:45 +0000

Happy Friday. Here's a quick gold-level note note on what I think is going on in the markets and the economy right now that I am making freely available. Turning to the paradigm I set out in 2009, the following points frame the secular environment

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Steve Keen on the Australian economy and housing bubbles in Australia, Canada, UK and Hong Kong

Edward Harrison — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 12:19:48 +0000

Good video with Steve Keen, the Australian economics professor with Max Keiser. Steve not only talks about the Australian economy and that country's housing bubble but also about the bursting of housing bubbles in Canada, the UK and Hong Kong

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[Premium] Daily Commentary: On huge growth disparities in the developed economies

Edward Harrison — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 16:30:41 +0000

This will be a bronze level post. We see a number of data points in today's links that point to economic growth and employment dynamics that vary widely across the developed economies

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