Credit Writedowns » Asia

Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:00:02 +0000

The year got off on a much better foot than might have been expected, at least as far as global manufacturing is concerned. So the fall in global manufacturing has flattened out, even though the bounce back has more of a dead cat look about it than anything else. As usual in recent months the report was very much a mixed bag

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[Premium] Growth momentum shift to Emerging Markets continues

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:00:38 +0000

Two weeks ago I highlighted the fact that Indonesia has re-attained an investment grade rating, continuing the upward path it has been on since the Asian crisis derailed the Asian growth story 15 years ago. Indeed, we should expect emerging markets, and Asian emerging markets in particular to outperform developed economies

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The Swiss Franc is the most overvalued currency in the world, and the Indian Rupee most undervalued

Edward Harrison — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 20:30:14 +0000

That's what the Economist's Big Mac Index tell us. According to this index, the Swiss Franc and the Norwegian Krone are both more than 60 percent overvalued compared to the US dollar. Much further down are Sweden with over 40% overvaluation and Brazil which shows more than 30%. The flip side comes with the Indian Rupee, which had been hitting record lows last year. Here, we're talking about a 60% undervaluation

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Roubini: Moving From the Post-Bubble, Post-Bust Economy to Growth

Edward Harrison — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 15:08:21 +0000

Here are the important extracts from a recent paper in terms of the causes of the crisis. I have also embedded the full pdf version, which has suggested policy prescriptions as well

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EFSF Enhancement Hinges on Slovakia

BBH — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 11:30:02 +0000

Equity markets paring back recent gains after one-week recovery ahead of Slovakia EFSF vote. Slovakia is the last country to vote on EFSF enhancement; “Yes” vote is not a done deal. News reports indicate China’s SWF is buying bank shares; Indonesia unexpectedly cuts rate

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Faber: Market May Fall Below 1,100

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 10:00:54 +0000

Marc Faber told CNBC yesterday that he thinks the S&P500 could fall to as low as 1010 by the end of the ongoing sell-off. Faber also believes gold could fall. However, he believes both markets are oversold and is more keen to buy gold on a rebound than equities

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Asian central bank preview: on hold for now

Win Thin — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 18:00:09 +0000

In the Asian EM space, central banks from Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and South Korea all meet this Thursday. We don’t see any change from these four central banks and in general we believe EM central banks have moved into dovish wait-and-see mode for now, with the obvious exception of Brazil and Turkey, who have both cut. At some point, more EM central banks are likely to cut if the global outlook worsens, but we think it is prudent, and likely, that most remain on hold for now. Markets are, however, punishing countries that have cut rates with an eye towards a weaker currency, Brazil and Turkey

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Asian Manufacturing PMIs suggest slowing economic growth

Edward Harrison — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 12:30:35 +0000

My take: economic growth is moderating in Asia and that has caused central banks to become more dovish. Markets no longer expect the tightening cycle there to continue at the same pace. The 50 basis point cut in Brazil could be seen as a harbinger of more dovish emerging market interest rate policy everywhere – not that the CBs would go so far and cut as Brazil has done. The real question is China. They have been tightening. Will they continue to do so in the face of obvious weakening domestically and in Europe and North America

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Eight thoughts at the end of a tumultuous Week

Marc Chandler — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 13:14:21 +0000

This has been an extremely tumultuous week throughout the capital and commodity markets. August itself has been a cruel month. The German stock market has lost around a quarter of its value. A marked slow down in the US and Europe in Q2 has given rise double dip fears in the former and compounding difficulty achieving deficit targets. There are a number of take-aways for investors from this week's developments

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US real 10 year yields at record 225bpt discount to JGBs

Edward Harrison — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 13:15:00 +0000

PIMCO, the world’ largest bond fund call this suppression of yields financial repression because it means savers and bond investors get negative real returns. However, John Hempton pointed out that in Japan, where this monetary policy is well-advanced, deflation has set in and real yields are positive despite the zero-rate interest policy (ZIRP)

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Think tank: China’s assertiveness could lead to armed conflict in Asia

Edward Harrison — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 14:30:00 +0000

A world in which basic natural resources are neither cheap nor abundant and in which the debt levels in leading economies are very high is one prone to geopolitical instability

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Here’s why Jim Rogers is bullish on Asia

Edward Harrison — Sat, 28 May 2011 14:00:38 +0000

Jim Rogers is bullish on Asia. In a twenty-minute interview with the BBC, he explains why? Hat tip Paul Kedrosky. Like Paul, "I find many of his rhetorical tricks maddening" but it is an informative interview nonetheless. Videos below

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Russian Demographics: Something Stirring in the East

Claus Vistesen — Sun, 22 May 2011 00:45:41 +0000

By Claus Vistesen One of the reasons that I have always had a problem with Goldman Sachs’ infamous notion of the BRIC economies was not the fact that it excluded other important economies such as e.g Chile or Indonesia, but rather that Brazil, India, Russia and China never belonged in the same group. The reason

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Oil Prices and Rate Hikes Favor Latam FX Over Asia and EMEA

Win Thin — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 18:00:00 +0000

By Win Thin Malaysia central bank surprised the markets by hiking the statutory reserve requirement 100 bp bp while leaving policy rates unchanged at 2.75%. The bank noted that “While the stance of monetary policy is expected to remain supportive of growth, the degree of monetary accommodation may be reviewed given the sustained growth in

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Bob Janjuah is ‘tactically bearish’ now

Edward Harrison — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 16:00:17 +0000

Nomura’s Bob Janjuah was on Bloomberg Television’s "Inside Track" with Erik Schatzker this morning, discussing his outlook as well as the crises in the U.S. and Europe. He opened the session by saying he is tactically bearish over the next two to three months after the recent Santa Claus rally in shares and commodities. He’s

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Monetary Tightening In Asia Continues With PBOC Move

Win Thin — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 17:30:33 +0000

By Win Thin It’s all about monetary tightening in EM today. PBOC hiked reserve requirements another 50 bp today, effective January 20, and has hiked a total here of 350 bp since starting in January 2010. This comes after the Christmas hike in policy rates that took the 1-year lending rate to 5.81% for a

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Asian Policy-Makers Face Dilemma Of Too Many Targets

Win Thin — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 17:45:22 +0000

by Win Thin Bank Indonesia kept rates steady at 6.5%, as expected. However, we disagree with its dovish stance. Inflation pressures are rising, and tightening should have begun in 2010. Headline inflation was 7.0% y/y in December, the highest since April 2009 and well above the 5% +/- 1 percentage point target band for both

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Is Vietnam In a Downward Spiral?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 17:00:00 +0000

Here’s a run down of the recent woes in Vietnam. As you may recall, they are one of the few Asian emerging markets to be downgraded by the ratings agencies from Ba3 to B1 by Moody’s – both junk ratings. Most of the other ratings in emerging markets are going the other way. There is

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Grice: Europe and The Three Stages of Delusion

Guest Author — Tue, 07 Dec 2010 14:30:32 +0000

The recent sequence of reassurances from various eurozone policymakers suggests we are in the early, not latter, stages of the euro crisis. Only an Anglo-Saxon style QE will prevent dissolution of the euro. Such a radically un-German solution will only be taken with a full acceptance of how serious the euro’s problems are. But denial persists. The dawning of reality hurts. Prodded and bullied along a tortuous emotional path by events unforeseen and beyond our control, we descend through three phases: the first is denial that there is a problem; the second is denial that there is a big problem; the third is denial that the problem was anything to do with us

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Indonesia Upgrade Soon, But IDR Remains Hostage To Risk Appetite

Win Thin — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 21:00:00 +0000

Moody’s put Indonesia’s rating on review for possible upgrade. This is a stronger statement than the June move to positive outlook on the Ba2 rating (equivalent to BB), and we think an upgrade will be seen soon. Indeed, the agencies are really behind the curve as our own sovereign ratings model has Indonesia at BBB+/Baa1/BBB+ compared to actual ratings of BB/Ba2/BB+. Fitch’s BB+ is the closest to our view amongst the three major US agencies, but all should be moved upward

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Stephen Roach: US cannot handle the liquidity provided by Fed

Edward Harrison — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Stephen Roach argues that the U.S. is not equipped to turn the Fed’s liquidity into domestic demand so the liquidity provided by quantitative easing will simply leak out abroad to form asset bubbles somewhere else. He is principally concerned with Asia here and suggests capital controls are one route to deal with this problem. Of

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China’s Indirect Resource Grab

Edward Harrison — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 13:00:30 +0000

Here is anther note from Andy Lees of UBS this morning, this time regarding the intra-Asian competition for natural resources with China as the lead actor. Andy writes (links added): You will have seen this morning Vietnam’s state media warning that low seasonal floods through Vietnam’s Mekong Delta threaten to raise costs and cut output

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Dollar on its Back Foot

Marc Chandler — Thu, 30 Sep 2010 11:35:19 +0000

Highlights The US dollar remains on its back foot. The main driver remains the contrast between the likely trajectory of Fed policy in contrast to the ECB. Moody’s 1-notch downgrade of Spanish credit rating and news that Anglo-Irish needs another 6.4 bln euros on top of the 22.9 bln already injected, and possibly another 5

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Pace of Equity Flows into Asia are Accelerating

Marc Chandler — Mon, 20 Sep 2010 12:00:00 +0000

Asian equities have been a market darling this year, but the pace of inflows have increased in recent weeks. At around $534 mln, foreign inflows into Indonesia this month after nearly a quarter of the entire year’s. The $222 mln inflow into Philippine shares already this month is nearly half of the year-to-date amount. Foreign

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Observations Early in the Pacific Century

Marc Chandler — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 14:00:48 +0000

The economic historian Arnold Toynbee argued that civilization began in the East, expanded around the world, and will return to the East. Even if expressed somewhat differently, many people seem to believe that the 21st century will be a Pacific century. The center of the world economy for the last couple of centuries has been

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Yen Drops Back After Japan Comments on Currency; IFO Ahead

Marc Chandler — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 09:49:31 +0000

From The BBH Currency Strategy Team. Highlights Though concerns about economic growth prospects in major economies are still dominating financial markets after the poor US data yesterday, verbal intervention from Japan’s Finance Minister Noda, Prime Minister Kan, and then FM Noda again finally saw the yen retreat from multi-year highs against the dollar and euro.

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Is Brazil Overheating?

Edward Harrison — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 19:12:01 +0000

Given near universal austerity measures in Europe and thoughts of the same in the US, increasingly it looks like the emerging markets are expected to do the heavy lifting to sustain a global recovery. As I said recently, "for the global economy, it’s China or bust." But, of course, China is not the only major

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Manufacturing Sector Demonstrates Global Recovery

Edward Harrison — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 16:55:59 +0000

We have seen a host of manufacturing sector data over the past few days. Most of it has been pretty good and the data demonstrate that the global recovery has continued. Nevertheless, reviewing the data from the US, Europe, China and Singapore, there are some weaknesses beginning to show which I believe will become more

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Asian Central Banks Thought to Have Sold Dollars

Marc Chandler — Tue, 25 May 2010 12:07:11 +0000

Strong upward pressure on the dollar emanating from the European debt crisis and the tensions on the Korean peninsula apparently was countered by intervention from several Asian central banks. At one point the dollar was nearly 5.25% stronger against the Korean won on the day, bringing its advance to more than 13% since May 14.

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Euro Weakness Intensifies

Marc Chandler — Mon, 17 May 2010 12:11:55 +0000

Highlights Euro weakness intensifies as we start the week, risk-off trades dominate and the US dollar and the yen are the winners in the current context, still. There was no fresh ‘bad news’ from the EZ, but sentiment is extremely poor, with continued concern over the various austerity measures economic consequences and contagion (see below).

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Links: 2010-03-18 – Overheating in Asia and more on China

Edward Harrison — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 10:06:57 +0000

FT.com – Asia’s inflation genie leaps out of the bottle House prices to fall further as loan arrears rise – Independent.ie TheMoneyIllusion » It’s China’s world, we just live in it (Krugman, round two) More Americans live with multiple generations of family – USATODAY.com FT.com – The weak renminbi is not just America’s problem How

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China takes steps to prevent overheating 12 Jan 2010
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The Pound Suffers while Asian Currencies Gain

Marc Chandler — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 13:00:00 +0000

Highlights The US dollar is mixed against the major and emerging market currencies. The euro is consolidating in yesterday’s range as bonds stabilize and despite a smaller than expected German trade surplus. Comments from EU spokesperson Altafaj just before the NY open that measures taken by Greece are sufficient have so far failed to take

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Stephen Roach: Chance of Double Dip 40%

Edward Harrison — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 01:49:25 +0000

Here is more of Marc Faber, this time with Stephen Roach joining from Asia. Faber starts things off by making a point I have made many times in the past, namely that the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy is asymmetric; they are quick to cut on the way down, but slow to raise rates on

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Stephen Roach: Chance of Double Dip 40% originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Asia tells the west to get off its high horse

Edward Harrison — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 03:43:17 +0000

You kind of saw this coming didn’t you. Asians remember the Depression that began there a decade ago all too vividly. Many still see the West to blame because of the draconian economic policy solutions meted out by the IMF, including now-US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner amongst others. Incongruously, the very same Tim Geithner of

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Mental Midgets and Moral Pygmies

Niels Jensen — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:05:56 +0000

The following is a re-print of the latest monthly newsletter from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, published with the express permission of the author. Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners. You can reach the firm by email at info@arpllp.com. I have arrived at the fourth and final letter in our series

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Mental Midgets and Moral Pygmies originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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