Credit Writedowns » Argentina

Intervention Risks Rise In Latin America

Win Thin — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:30:50 +0000

FX intervention is certainly in the air this week for Latin America. Brazil stands out as the most aggressive, of course, as the central bank intervened in the forward market Friday and in the spot market Monday

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Foreign News: Belgian banks, Spanish yields, Austrian prices

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 19:28:31 +0000

I have been reading a lot of Western European and Spanish-language press recently. These articles give me a good sense of what the local press is thinking about the euro crisis (and the developing situation in Argentina) in addition to what you see in the English-language press. But I have been pretty lazy about posting these links because I just leave them in the original language with no explanation. So let me experiment here with some Foreign news links

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Argentina Reelects Fernandez, Unorthodox Policies And Peso Weakness To Continue

Win Thin — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 19:20:19 +0000

Fernandez will try to maintain the unorthodox mix of policies for as long as she can, and has shown little willingness to more towards orthodoxy during her first term. Troubles will come both internally and externally, with the growing fear that the exchange rate will bear the brunt of adjustment in the coming months

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Greece Should ‘Default Big,’ Says Argentine Central Banker

Edward Harrison — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 13:49:14 +0000

Greece needs to default too. The right thing to have happen is for Greece to default in a hard restructuring as part of a comprehensive credible plan. The goal is to right the ship by getting all of the biggest debtors within the Maastricht hurdle while recapitalising the financial sector. And that will mean restructuring and defaults

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Debt Restructuring – Uruguay vs. Argentina

Win Thin — Wed, 18 May 2011 19:00:29 +0000

With markets now contemplating some sort of debt “re-profiling” by Greece, we thought it would be helpful to summarize the two most recent major debt restructurings by an EM borrower for some guidance on what such a move could imply for ratings, debt trajectories, and triggering CDS events. To us, it is clear that “re-profiling” is a euro zone euphemism for a soft debt restructuring that extend maturities and lowers rates, while “restructuring” now refers to a hard one that involves principal haircuts as well as potentially adjusting maturities and coupons too

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Greece: Last Exit To Nowhere?

Edward Hugh — Sun, 15 May 2011 23:30:05 +0000

If the strongest argument against going back to the Drachma always was that this would imply default, now that default is coming, why not allow Greece to devalue? As Krugman says, the issue isn’t whether Greece would openly decide to exit the euro, the issue is what happens if the markets force this solution on Greek and European leaders? Given the programme isn’t working, the likelihood of this event occurring in the next 2 or 3 years is far from being negligible, so why not be proactive rather than always being reactive? What matters is whether Greece becomes Turkey (oh what a historical irony) or Argentina. If the powers that be can agree on an ordered restructuring of Greek debt, and a controlled exit from the Eurozone, then Greece has some possibilities of turning the situation round. If exit is forced on Greece in order to escape the clutches of both the EU and the IMF then the move will be, as I suggest in my title, simply the last exit to nowhere

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Video: Ex-president of Argentina Néstor Kirchner dies

Edward Harrison — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 21:00:38 +0000

News coverage: Argentina ‘in shock’ at former President Kirchner death – BBC Argentine assets rise on death of ex-President Kirchner – Reuters Kirchner’s death may mark end of an era in Argentina – Miami Herald Consternación por la muerte del ex presidente Néstor Kirchner – La Nacion MURIÓ NÉSTOR KIRCHNER – Ambito "Seguiré luchando por

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Latam Update: ABC–Argentina, Brazil, Chile

Marc Chandler — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Fears that the global recovery is faltering is unlikely to prevent Chile’s central bank from hiking rates tomorrow. It had hiked rates last month and the data since has been strong and economists have generally revised higher growth forecasts and Chile’s finance minister recognized this last week. The market expects a 50 bp rate hike

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Stat of the day: Highest default probabilities are Greece, Venezuela, Argentina

Edward Harrison — Wed, 05 May 2010 12:59:07 +0000

Within the euro-zone, Portugal comes in at #6. Spain and Ireland are not in the top ten. Source: CMA Sovereign Risk Monitor Related Posts Poll: Will Greece default? 27 Apr 2010 Argentina faces potential collapse 12 Jun 2008 Are the Baltics the new Argentina? 30 Jul 2008 More About: Argentina, bankruptcy, bonds, Greece, Latin America,

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Links: 2010-03-29 – Using central bank reserves as a slush fund

Edward Harrison — Mon, 29 Mar 2010 11:10:12 +0000

The first link is interesting. And too bad it is in Spanish for those of you who don’t speak English. It is an important piece about what happens when a central bank is not independent. The opinion piece from Argentine daily “La Nacion” points out that that country’s President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has demanded

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Greece: How to induce yet more capital flight

Edward Harrison — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 03:33:26 +0000

Update: 2010-02-24. The Wall Street Journal has picked up on this theme. See Wealthy Greeks Send Money Abroad. The point is that the taxation rules are not necessarily going to increase taxes. They will, however, increase capital flight

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Joke of the day: Mark Sanford’s re-coupling America to emerging markets

Edward Harrison — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 18:04:02 +0000

Marshall Auerback sent me this joke about Mark Sanford. Mark Sanford’s staff thought he was hiking in the mountains. In fairness to his aides, "I’m getting some Argentinian tail." sounds a lot like "I’m hiking the Appalachian Trail." Related Posts Pesek: Asia is de-coupling 6 May 2009 Mobius: Emerging market stocks are breaking out 4

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China wants all of Repsol’s Latin American oil assets

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 07:07:09 +0000

You have probably heard the stories about China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) bidding for Repsol YP’F’s Argentine assets in a quest for more natural resources for China. Well, apparently, the Chinese want a lot more than just Argentina; they want the whole of Repsol’s Latin American asset base. The Chinese have been buying up

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Baltics: Violence from an Argentina-style collapse

Edward Harrison — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 18:20:54 +0000

The riots on the streets of Vilnius and Riga in the Baltics are not being covered in the least in the U.S. media (Hat tip Ken). I believe they should because, as with Greece, the social unrest we are witnessing in those countries is the likely outcome of failed economic policies and depression. This was certainly the case during the Great Depression, even in the United States. While we are not seeing Argentina-level social unrest, these events are forerunners of a more ominous social climate

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Latvia as the new Argentina redux

Edward Harrison — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 23:38:19 +0000

Has Paul Krugman been reading my stuff? He is certainly thinking like me regarding emerging market risk. He has a post today talking about Latvia as the new Argentina

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Anne Applebaum: “Political instability will follow economic instability like night follows day”

Edward Harrison — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 20:30:00 +0000

While I am markedly more upbeat of late about economic matters, I still harbor some deep concerns about the direction of both the global economy and resultant political stability. The Washington Post columnist Anne Applebaum has summed up my gravest fears about a global depression and its destabilizing effect on emerging market economies with this

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Are the Baltics the new Argentina?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 18:46:00 +0000

For those of you who actually care about anything international, there is an Emerging Markets crisis brewing right now in the Baltics. After reading posts from Alpha Sources, naked capitalism, Market Movers, and Bronte Capital on the subject, I started to think people actually cared about the tiny Baltics. So, let me add my two

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Is this the way to fight inflation?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 11:47:00 +0000

Tariffs and price controls? Apparently, Latin America thinks it can stop the growing tide of inflation and end the riots on their streets by just imposing tariffs and imposing price controls. They better get ready for a blind date with Econ 101. But, I guarantee you this date won’t end well either. The Financial Times

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Argentina faces potential collapse

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 01:29:00 +0000

Argentina is on the brink again. Earlier today, I wrote about doubts regarding the country’s official inflation statistics. The official statistics showed 9.1% inflation when many believe inflation is running 25% and more. Now, it emerges that the country is on the verge of a cataclysmic debt default. In 2001, Argentina had a massive default

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We’re not the only ones who don’t believe the statistics

Edward Harrison — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 14:30:00 +0000

Argentina too has a government statistics problem. Their new inflation index is seen as unbelievable.(see FT article here.) Related Posts No related posts. More About: Argentina, Economy, Economy

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