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Latam Nationalizations: Dog Bites Man?

Marc Chandler — Thu, 03 May 2012 16:30:53 +0000

That a couple of Latin American countries have recently announced the expropriation of foreign investors in the energy sector seems hardly like new news. After all, cycles of nationalization and privatization have unfolded for more than half a century. Moreover, the expropriation simply marked the latest illiberal measures by Argentina and Bolivia, the two protagonists here. There is significant risk that others will follow Argentina and Bolivia

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Argentina Fundamentals Still Deteriorating

Win Thin — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 18:20:40 +0000

A look at the fundamentals shows why Fernandez is engaging in such visible theatrics, which also includes recent vitriol regarding the Falkland Islands. Simply put, we think economic stresses are intensifying. How deep the stresses will get is yet to be determined

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A Primer on Peak Oil

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 13:00:39 +0000

I ran across three separate articles on peak oil at well-regarded financial news sites today: The Economist, The Financial Times and Le Figaro. I thought I'd give you a run down of what they were saying and what it means for the economy and investing

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[Premium] Peak oil explains the Repsol YPF expropriation in Argentina

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 16:00:44 +0000

I think this should be obvious to everyone by now, but peak oil is a clear factor in the Argentina/Spain oil crisis. Here's what happened

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[Premium] Daily commentary: On Spain’s death spiral and the nationalism of depression

Edward Harrison — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 00:53:20 +0000

Spain is involved in two stories today that point to the difficulties that surround sovereign governments that are overindebted in foreign currency. There are a ton of Spanish-language links for that reason

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Argentina is not the model

Edward Harrison — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 15:52:48 +0000

There have been a lot of people talking about Argentina as if it were the model for other governments in sovereign difficulty to follow. Yes, Argentina’s decision to default was realistically the right call given the crushing debt load. And that is the path the euro zone periphery is on. But, beyond this, I fail

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Intervention Risks Rise In Latin America

Win Thin — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:30:50 +0000

FX intervention is certainly in the air this week for Latin America. Brazil stands out as the most aggressive, of course, as the central bank intervened in the forward market Friday and in the spot market Monday

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Foreign News: Belgian banks, Spanish yields, Austrian prices

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 19:28:31 +0000

I have been reading a lot of Western European and Spanish-language press recently. These articles give me a good sense of what the local press is thinking about the euro crisis (and the developing situation in Argentina) in addition to what you see in the English-language press. But I have been pretty lazy about posting these links because I just leave them in the original language with no explanation. So let me experiment here with some Foreign news links

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Argentina Reelects Fernandez, Unorthodox Policies And Peso Weakness To Continue

Win Thin — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 19:20:19 +0000

Fernandez will try to maintain the unorthodox mix of policies for as long as she can, and has shown little willingness to more towards orthodoxy during her first term. Troubles will come both internally and externally, with the growing fear that the exchange rate will bear the brunt of adjustment in the coming months

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Greece Should ‘Default Big,’ Says Argentine Central Banker

Edward Harrison — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 13:49:14 +0000

Greece needs to default too. The right thing to have happen is for Greece to default in a hard restructuring as part of a comprehensive credible plan. The goal is to right the ship by getting all of the biggest debtors within the Maastricht hurdle while recapitalising the financial sector. And that will mean restructuring and defaults

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