Credit Writedowns » Andy Xie

Andy Xie: Europe’s is a money distribution problem

Edward Harrison — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 13:00:00 +0000

Europe has an enormous productive capacity, Greece included. Debt introduces a money distribution problem that becomes a flashpoint during periods of economic weakness because the inability of large debtors to pay imperils both the debtor, the creditor and everyone whose income is derived from those sources. If the debtors are large enough as in the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, you get a systemic crisis that often leads to depression. The European sovereign debt crisis is all about apportioning losses between debtors, creditors, and taxpayers from debts that simply cannot be repaid in real terms

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Andy Xie Recommends China Diversify Out Of Treasuries

Edward Harrison — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 12:30:00 +0000

The Chinese foreign reserve accumulation is really about the exchange rate peg. As long as the Yuan's dollar peg remains near present levels, the current account imbalance will result in an accumulation of dollar reserves. Former Morgan Stanley Economist Andy Xie says the Chinesse do have a choice as to what US dollar assets to buy, even so. He suggests the US diversify out of Treasuries and into other US dollar assets

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Xie and Roach: China Should Worry About Inflation

Edward Harrison — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 22:30:00 +0000

On the back of 10+% growth in 2010, it is now apparent that China has a burgeoning inflation problem. A whole confluence of factors may come into play here. A labour shortage in China, food price inflation, and out of control money supply growth all are impinging on consumer prices. It should be noted that

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Jim Chanos makes the bearish case on China

Edward Harrison — Wed, 17 Nov 2010 14:15:00 +0000

Fortune recently did a story on Jim Chanos called "Chanos vs. China" which warrants reading. Below is the associated video in which you can hear Chanos making the bearish case for China. Chanos is the most unapologetic and aggressive of the well-known bears about his case. For example, Andy Xie seems to have backpedalled somewhat

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Andy Xie is much less bearish on Chinese housing market

Edward Harrison — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 03:30:44 +0000

Recently I pointed to some comments by Andy Xie which indicated he was taking a less apocalyptic stance toward the Chinese property market. It was difficult to discern how much of a climb down this was for the China bear. But, judging from an article just published in Bloomberg, Xie has not recanted entirely; he

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Xie: China’s housing market is “not crashing like I expected”

Edward Harrison — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 02:30:30 +0000

I don’t know exactly what to make of Andy Xie’s quote near the end of this first CNBC video below. He says "It’s not crashing like I expected in 2012," referring to the Chinese housing market. Is Xie saying: A. The crash is not going to happen yet. Wait until 2012. Or is he saying

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Xie Says West’s Stimulus Stoking Emerging Market Inflation

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 00:30:00 +0000

Here’s Andy Xie spinning his inflation tale of woe. He thinks western stimulus is not creating demand or inflation in the west but stoking inflation in emerging markets, causing them to overheat. Take a look. I have made a similar argument about emerging market asset bubbles in the 1990s. For Greenspan, the Fed cannot stop

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Andy Xie: Our Market Is A Poor Man’s Casino

Edward Harrison — Sun, 23 May 2010 23:56:39 +0000

A bartender at my neighborhood pub recently asked me how the Shanghai stock market was performing. I said it was at about 2,600 points. He jumped and said, “No! The Communist Party wouldn’t let that happen.” He spent the next 10 minutes trying to convince me that the Communist Party would make the market rise

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Andy Xie: Chinese monetary policy has to be tightened

Edward Harrison — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 22:57:48 +0000

Xie believes the Chinese economy is in no near-term threat. But he does see problems down the line because of a property bubble. He recommends even more monetary tightening to reduce the ill effects of this bubble. Xie comments on the U.S. and on Europe as well. The video of his comments runs just under

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The Chinese bubble economy

Edward Harrison — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 13:17:01 +0000

The well-regarded and surprisingly independent Beijing-based media outlet Caijing is no more. The site is up, but the content is frozen in time, nothing having been written since early November. Happily, Caijing editor Hu Shuli has now re-appeared with Caing. And Caing has started things off where Caijing left off, drawing attention to the bubble

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Andy Xie on China, money and asset bubbles

Edward Harrison — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 22:42:16 +0000

I mentioned comments by former Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie on reckless monetary policy earlier today. Below are interviews Xie gave with the Financial Times in Shanghai back in September which give a more comprehensive look at his views on China, debt bubbles, trade, the U.S., monetary policy and more (Hat tip Prieur du Plessis).

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Andy Xie: “Whole world is drinking poison to quench the thirst”

Edward Harrison — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:38:09 +0000

Andy Xie believes ultra-low interest rates in the U.S. and elsewhere are fuelling an asset price bubble which will pop dramatically in 2012. In his view, the policies of the world’s central banks are reckless and will lead to worse down the road. Bloomberg quotes him as follows: “There is a Chinese saying that one

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Geithner: “Market-oriented exchange rates in line with economic fundamentals will be essential”

Edward Harrison — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:44:30 +0000

Is it just me or did Secretary Geithner just talk out of other side of his mouth? Today he wrote an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal with two Asian leaders to mark a big meeting of APEC (Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation) in Singapore. The WSJ article started out with a bunch of diplomatic niceties

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News from around the web: 2009-11-11

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:44:08 +0000

Bear Juror Says U.S. Case So Weak She’d Invest With Defendants – Bloomberg.com Russia Warns of Gas Crisis as Ukraine Faces Financial Turmoil – Bloomberg.com Staatsbank HRE verliert 1,7 Milliarden Euro – Spiegel Online WNYC – The Brian Lehrer Show: Tweeting Tragedy (November 10, 2009) (This is about tweets at Fort Hood.) Republicans Edge Ahead

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If the Fed is looking to inflate away problems, what should Asia do?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:47:51 +0000

Andy Xie thinks the Fed is on an inflationary path. Last month, he wrote an article in Caijing which says that ‘stagflation lite’ is the Federal Reserve’s preferred outcome. What’s interesting is his recent article about the need for China and Japan to join forces under an ASEAN umbrella, rejecting the APEC umbrella shared with

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Bullish data, recoveries, crashes and the psychology of forecasting redux

Edward Harrison — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:55:50 +0000

If you have been wondering whether a statistical recovery is at hand, today’s ISM manufacturing report should be the clincher. The report was definitely bullish with the ISM index rising to 55.7 and sub-components supporting the understanding that the manufacturing sector is expanding. This is quite a contrast to last month’s weak data and demonstrates

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Andy Xie: Central bank “arsonists have been asked to put out the fire”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:31:06 +0000

Former Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie joins other famed prognosticators like Nouriel Roubini in worrying about an incipient asset bubble. The Rosetta Stone Advisors board member sees the huge increase in money supply created by central banks as fuel to an asset bubble fire. He even goes so far as to call the central banks

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News from around the web: 2009-10-06

Edward Harrison — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 04:00:00 +0000

La producción industrial cae un 13.1% y encadena 16 meses de descensos Spain’s industrial production is still cliff diving. How are their banks able to withstand this catastrophe? FT.com – HSBC chief fears a second downturn Consider this a double dip alert. There’s no such thing as too big to fail in a free market

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News from around the web: 2009-08-22

Edward Harrison — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 04:01:00 +0000

European Stress Tests Led Swedbank to Offering – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com Carl Eric Stalberg, chairman of Swedbank, told Svenska Dagbladet in an interview published Friday that stress tests conducted by the central banks, financial regulator and Swedbank itself had led the lender to make its second stock offering in eight months to ensure that

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China’s present growth story is built on malinvestment

Edward Harrison — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:13:04 +0000

Late last year, I predicted that China, as a major exporter to the West, would feel a huge impact from the meltdown in the global economy, taking it’s growth rate down to 2% (See Top ten predictions for the 2009 global economy). Forgetting about the fact that data are highly suspect in China, I see

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Edward Harrison — Tue, 05 May 2009 08:26:46 +0000

FT.com – Spanish banks lead the way in risk management Spain’s banks are beig praised for risk management, much as Canadian banks are. The Cajas are a different story. “Managers believe that this intense board-level focus on risk is one reason why Spain’s large banks have so far weathered the credit crunch in better shape

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China is now America’s largest creditor

Edward Harrison — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 22:00:00 +0000

America is the largest debtor nation in history. And given the economic weakness in the global economy right now, the debt load is likely to get worse. Recently, China surpassed Japan to become America’s largest creditor. The Chinese, who rank a mere 100th in per capita income, save so much money that they are able

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