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Andy Xie: Europe’s is a money distribution problem

Edward Harrison — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 13:00:00 +0000

Europe has an enormous productive capacity, Greece included. Debt introduces a money distribution problem that becomes a flashpoint during periods of economic weakness because the inability of large debtors to pay imperils both the debtor, the creditor and everyone whose income is derived from those sources. If the debtors are large enough as in the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, you get a systemic crisis that often leads to depression. The European sovereign debt crisis is all about apportioning losses between debtors, creditors, and taxpayers from debts that simply cannot be repaid in real terms

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Andy Xie Recommends China Diversify Out Of Treasuries

Edward Harrison — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 12:30:00 +0000

The Chinese foreign reserve accumulation is really about the exchange rate peg. As long as the Yuan's dollar peg remains near present levels, the current account imbalance will result in an accumulation of dollar reserves. Former Morgan Stanley Economist Andy Xie says the Chinesse do have a choice as to what US dollar assets to buy, even so. He suggests the US diversify out of Treasuries and into other US dollar assets

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Xie and Roach: China Should Worry About Inflation

Edward Harrison — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 22:30:00 +0000

On the back of 10+% growth in 2010, it is now apparent that China has a burgeoning inflation problem. A whole confluence of factors may come into play here. A labour shortage in China, food price inflation, and out of control money supply growth all are impinging on consumer prices. It should be noted that

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Jim Chanos makes the bearish case on China

Edward Harrison — Wed, 17 Nov 2010 14:15:00 +0000

Fortune recently did a story on Jim Chanos called "Chanos vs. China" which warrants reading. Below is the associated video in which you can hear Chanos making the bearish case for China. Chanos is the most unapologetic and aggressive of the well-known bears about his case. For example, Andy Xie seems to have backpedalled somewhat

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Andy Xie is much less bearish on Chinese housing market

Edward Harrison — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 03:30:44 +0000

Recently I pointed to some comments by Andy Xie which indicated he was taking a less apocalyptic stance toward the Chinese property market. It was difficult to discern how much of a climb down this was for the China bear. But, judging from an article just published in Bloomberg, Xie has not recanted entirely; he

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Xie: China’s housing market is “not crashing like I expected”

Edward Harrison — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 02:30:30 +0000

I don’t know exactly what to make of Andy Xie’s quote near the end of this first CNBC video below. He says "It’s not crashing like I expected in 2012," referring to the Chinese housing market. Is Xie saying: A. The crash is not going to happen yet. Wait until 2012. Or is he saying

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Xie Says West’s Stimulus Stoking Emerging Market Inflation

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 00:30:00 +0000

Here’s Andy Xie spinning his inflation tale of woe. He thinks western stimulus is not creating demand or inflation in the west but stoking inflation in emerging markets, causing them to overheat. Take a look. I have made a similar argument about emerging market asset bubbles in the 1990s. For Greenspan, the Fed cannot stop

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Andy Xie: Our Market Is A Poor Man’s Casino

Edward Harrison — Sun, 23 May 2010 23:56:39 +0000

A bartender at my neighborhood pub recently asked me how the Shanghai stock market was performing. I said it was at about 2,600 points. He jumped and said, “No! The Communist Party wouldn’t let that happen.” He spent the next 10 minutes trying to convince me that the Communist Party would make the market rise

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Andy Xie: Chinese monetary policy has to be tightened

Edward Harrison — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 22:57:48 +0000

Xie believes the Chinese economy is in no near-term threat. But he does see problems down the line because of a property bubble. He recommends even more monetary tightening to reduce the ill effects of this bubble. Xie comments on the U.S. and on Europe as well. The video of his comments runs just under

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The Chinese bubble economy

Edward Harrison — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 13:17:01 +0000

The well-regarded and surprisingly independent Beijing-based media outlet Caijing is no more. The site is up, but the content is frozen in time, nothing having been written since early November. Happily, Caijing editor Hu Shuli has now re-appeared with Caing. And Caing has started things off where Caijing left off, drawing attention to the bubble

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