Post Tagged with: "Spain"
Dollar Under Pressure at Month End
The focus now ahead of the weekend is three-fold. First, Spain is set to unveil its 2012 budget. Full details will not be available until it is presented to parliament next Tuesday. However, the overall savings is what investors are most interested in. The market is looking for more than 20 bln euros in new savings on top of the 15 bln euros of savings announced at the end of last year. To get ahead of the curve of market expectations savings in excess of 30 bln euros may be needed
[Premium] Daily Commentary: Spain
This is a day of the general strike in Spain, so a large number of the links below are about Spain and the situation there, in both English and Spanish
Video: General Strike in Spain
Below is a video of scenes from the least peaceful parts of today’s nationwide general strike in Spain. Other links are below. In general, the protests were peaceful
More on the rain in Spain (and the need for bank capital to cover ECB loans)
Back in November last year I posted on my confusion over the jubilation shown by the citizens of Spain as they elected Mariano Rajoy as their new political leader. Mr Rajoy’s strategy during the election campaign was to say very little about what he was actually intending to do to address his country’s financial problems, preferring to simply let the incumbent party fall on its own sword so that he could take the reins. It became obvious soon after the election that, despite his party’s best efforts to dodge questions, the intention was simply to continue with even more austerity. Since that post I have continually warned that although Spain is obviously a different country to Greece in regards to how its problems have manifested, it still faces significant macroeconomic challenges that were not being correctly reflected in the bond market
On Spain’s coming under the watchful eye of the Troika in 2012
This is a thematic post, I am also putting outside the paywall because there is a lot of chatter today about Spain needing to tap EU bailout funds this year. The messaging in the analyst community follows the thematic prediction I made in October 2010 about periphery countries missing targets and this creating a renewed crisis in the euro zone. While Greece, Ireland and Portugal are already in IMF programs, the worry now is that Spain will follow. Let me break down the different threads briefly. Here are the principal stories I am hearing
Five Overlooked Euro Zone Developments
There are several developments that warn of future problems in the euro zone and these make us suspicious about the euro’s ability to sustain the upside break
Disappointment in Core, but Some Positive News in Periphery
The shockingly weak euro zone flash PMI, especially the sub-50 reading for German manufacturing, is the main focus today. New orders have been weak and the Bloomberg consensus does expect the euro zone economy to contract not only in Q1 but in Q2 and Q3 as well. Many participants seem to have confused the dramatic equity market rally in Q1 and reduced tail risks with economic strength
On Spain, Spanish banks and Spanish local elections
The LTROs may have helped ease this year’s roll-over risk (Spain has met almost 50% of this year’s refinancing needs). But they have not substantially altered the market’s views of the risks of an eventual restructuring
[Premium] Spain is too big to fail but Hungary must face the music
This is a gold-level post for members only. The EU is deathly afraid of either Spain or Italy getting into trouble and will do almost anything these countries ask. On the other hand, Hungary is expendable. This has clear investing implications
[Premium] Daily Commentary: Eyes will now turn to Spain and Portugal
This is a bronze level post. These are the links with my daily commentary for 9 Mar 2012 on the Greek PSI deal and the renewed urgency this makes for Spain and Portugal
On the Greek default and easy money from the ECB
Here is a video of my latest appearance on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster. We spoke specifically about the situation in Europe; and that means Greece in the first instance. We also talked a lot about the ECB’s LTRO program which I see as a back door sovereign monetisation scheme as much as a bank liquidity program
[Premium] A few words on the Greek restructuring deal, prospects for Greece and euro zone break up
This is a gold level post. So we’ve got a deal on the Greek restructuring. Everyone is talking about it. Here are the things to pay attention to