Post Tagged with: "Spain"
Curbing Our Enthusiasm, Increasing Our Bet…
We could be wrong on this one and may have too much faith in the Eurocrats, but think of consequences if we are wrong? If the EU fails here, it will 1931 all over again and will put the “Great” in this rolling depression/recession. Therefore, we bet they’ll come up with just enough to let Super Mario do his thing. After that we’ll reassess and look at the long-term consequences, but hopefully 100 S&P points higher
The European Troika to Watch
The “troika” – Italian, Spanish, and French bond yields – is acting pretty well even after the S&P downgrade. Italy is under 6 percent and that is what matters. We sense there will be tremendous pressure on the shorts and equity risk off crowd going into the EU Summit and believe the market moves higher even if it’s just a fig leaf to give the ECB cover. After that? All bets off going into 2012. Stay tuned
Buiter: no politically feasible route to sustained growth for many years to come
In the aftermath of the emergence of a “reinforced ‘Stability and Growth Pact’”, Citigroup chief economist Willem Buiter is pessimistic about growth outcomes in the major developed economies because the political economy of the sovereign debt crisis will stymie any pro-growth policy solutions. While Buiter sees giving the ECB a green light to monetise euro area government debt as the genesis of the deal, he anticipates years (or decades) of low growth and he warns that ECB policy support will neither be “open-ended” or “unconditional”. On a positive front, Buiter says it “should allay concerns about disorderly sovereign defaults by Italy or Spain and about euro area break-up.”
Foreign News: France and Germany are still miles apart on agreement
Foreign news for 1 December 2011 focuses on Europe, and in particular Spain
Why the IMF thing works for the euro
Editor’s note: the IMF musings would be difficult politically, especially in the US. And any deal for Italy would also have to involve Spain too. However, Perhaps most important, operationally, the ECB lending to the IMF, which then lends to euro member nations, doesn’t count as ‘printing money’ in the Teutonic monetary bible
On the alleged plans for a Spanish bailout
“It is categorically not true,” said a spokesman from the party, which is led by Mariano Rajoy. The spokesman was commenting on a report by Reuters on Friday that the PP had discussed plans to seek a rescue package. -Spain ‘will not apply for international aid’ – Telegraph There is an old saying that you
News Links: Power to imprison civilians without charge or trial anywhere in the world
News links for 27 November
Foreign news: Belgium gets austerity, EU prepares for Eurobonds, Netherlands says breakup inevitable, Spain to get IMF bailout
Foreign-language economic and finance links for 26 November
Foreign News: Commerzbank capital, Portuguese bailout, Franco-Belgian problems
Here is the second version of this foreign news links post that I am starting. The feedback yesterday was good. You all said it makes sense to see what the press in country are saying in Europe since that is the locus of the sovereign debt crisis, so I will continue this
News Links: Downgrade watch begins as debt panel concedes defeat
Downgrade watch begins as debt panel concedes defeat – The Hill’s On The Money Credit rating agencies reiterated Monday that the U.S. is at risk of a downgrade following the announcement that the supercommittee has failed. Standard & Poor’s warned lawmakers not to try and roll back the $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts set to
Will Greece unravel by Christmas?
Without a credible intervention this process almost always ends the same way. There is in my opinion a very high probability that within weeks, or months at most, Greece will be forced to freeze bank deposits as a prelude to leaving the euro. Mexico in 1994 and Argentina in 2001 chose the Christmas/New Year holiday season to announce their devaluations. Will Greece follow suit? “If history repeats itself,” footballer Andrew Demetriou once pointed out, “I should think we can expect the same thing again.”