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The recession has been confirmed – semi-officially

Robert Hall, the head of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is the official arbiter of recession in the United States, has said the evidence is now “conclusive” that the U.S. is in recession. For me, that’s pretty much all she wrote — the recession has been confirmed. I have held that we have been in recession for […]

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Automakers likely to be bailed out

The stars are aligned for the big three automakers because everyone is coming out in their favor. First, we heard that they were meeting with congressional leaders on Capitol Hill. Then, we heard that Rahm Emanuel, a house democrat and Barack Obama’s future Chief of Staff, favored a bailout. Next it was Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi’s turn to get […]

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Buffett is buying utilities, should you?

Last week, I posted an article on why the recent rally did not look anything like a bull market titled “An amazing market rally. What’s next?“o, it seems like I was bullish for all of two weeks. Yet, the truth is I was never bullish on the market as a whole. But, I do think there are many stocks trading […]

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Financial sector losses near $1 trillion

The financial sector bailout continues on track. Meanwhile, financial services sector losses have hit $919 billion. This summer, I had been of the view that we would see $1.5 trillion in losses before this was over. However, this is looking wildly optimistic at this point. When I have a breakdown of losses by company, I will be sure to post. […]

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The emerging markets crisis

Last night an article by Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners caught my eye. In it, he made a very strong case for worrying about European bank exposure to emerging markets and its potential for creating systemic risk. I would like to share some highlights from this well-written piece and add a few thoughts of my own. I have talked […]

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Bailout Nation

The United States Government’s bailout of the financial sector is approaching breathtaking proportions. There are so many pronouncements and announcements of this monetary stimulus and that loan of this preferred equity stake and that interest rate cut that I can’t keep up with the news flow. Meanwhile, on Main Street many a homeowner will wait for her bailout in vain. […]

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News round-up: 10 Nov 2008

This past weekend I went away to the beach where I watched no television, listened to no radio and read no newspapers. It was good to get away from the constant drip-drip of bad economic news that has overcome the global economy. Now, I am back in the saddle and catching up on the weekend’s and Monday’s events. If you […]

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Doubling down at AIG

The U.S. government is throwing money at the financial sector like nobody’s business. The latest salvo in this ridiculous affair comes in the form of more money for AIG. Rather than prattle on about how shambolic the U.S. bailout has become, I will defer to Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism who was on top of this story early this morning. […]

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Now using WordPress

We have now moved from Blogger to WordPress as the software for the site, but everything else should remain pretty much the same. You may have noticed we were offline for a few hours earlier today, but everything is back to normal — or at least it should be. Special thanks to both Tom and the blogger at http://www.recessionsurfer.com for […]

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The unkindest cut: the BoE got it wrong

Below is a link to an article I wrote about the Bank of England’s aggressive 1.5% interest rate cut that appeared in yesterday’s Guardian newspaper. The unkindest cut, GuardianThe long and short of it is that I am very skeptical about the need for such a large cut. Many pundits felt the BoE was behind the curve and needed to […]

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Blog changes: Blogger or WordPress?

I am off to the beach this weekend, so blogging will be light. But I wanted to ask for help on a technical issue first. We have been using Blogger’s platform to run this blog for the past 8 months or so. However, we have run up against a number of issues that are limiting. Recently, we have been thinking […]

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Two more FDIC Friday Night Specials: Franklin and Security Pacific

It is now a ritual. Every Friday night the FDIC announces which banks have been playing fast and loose with our money and need to be shut down. This week, there are two banks, Security Pacific of Los Angeles and Franklin of Houston. Franklin is the bank run by Lewis Ranieri, of Liar’s Poker fame and one of the early […]

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