All Content

Video: Barack Obama finally gets angry

OK, well this is just an actor in a comedy skit from Saturday Night Live getting angry.  But, it is pretty funny.

Read more ›

Fix the real economy first: lessons from James Montier

James Montier has a very good piece out via John Mauldin ([email protected]) on the need for real economy stimulus over financial sector stimulus. The quote I find most memorable goes to the heart of our debate about the financial system: Investors seem to be rather excited about banks posting profits at the moment. Frankly, if a bank didn’t post a […]

Read more ›

Moody’s anticipates huge increase in leveraged loan defaults

This comes via Angus Robertson at Research Recap. Just as the RMBS post yesterday confirmed, moe writedowns are coming in other credit classes: In a trend likely to accelerate in 2009, the default rate on bank loans to speculative-grade corporations rose sharply in 2008 and recovery rates on leveraged loans dropped over the same period, according to a new study […]

Read more ›

Links: 2009-03-25

Here are the main links. A ton more can be found in the news feed (also available via RSS). Enjoy. Dear A.I.G., I Quit – Paul Kedrosky The devalued Prime Minister of a devalued Government – Alice Cook This video is good. U.S. wrong to blame China for trade imbalance: Stephen Roach – Xinhua Buffett’s Goldman Sachs Warrants Regain Value […]

Read more ›

Krugman: Geithner Plan “won’t work”

I have the same misgivings about the Public Private Partnership Investment Program that Paul Krugman does. However, I still think it could work in conjunction with all of the other stimulus being applied (at least in inducing a cyclical rebound, which seems to be the goal). Krugman does not. Watch the video to see his reasoning.

Read more ›

Is the economic contraction peaking?

I believe we may be seeing the bottom here. Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman does as well. Here is what he has to say: Our baseline expectation is that the pace of contraction of the US economy probably peaked in the horrific fourth quarter of last year, which still appears subject to downward revisions. We expect a deep contraction […]

Read more ›

Roubini: Nationalization “fully on the table” in Geithner’s Plan

This is yet another semi-positive post about the Geithner plan. To reiterate, I think the plan is inadequate because it assumes illiquidity instead of insolvency and is a huge gift to the financial sector. But, that does not mean it will definitely not work in conjunction with other moves by Obama. In fact, to the degree the Obama Administration has […]

Read more ›

2003

Yesterday, I posted an item on Naked Capitalism about the bankruptcy of Yamaichi Securities in 1996 as testament to lingering weakness in a country’s financial sector if sick financial institutions are not dealt with swiftly. In essence, the entire Japanese banking sector remained weak for years despite multiple cyclical upturns after the Bubble Economy burst. So, let’s fast forward to […]

Read more ›

A conversation about the film ‘Duplicity’ on Charlie Rose

I saw this film at the weekend and thought it was brilliant.  I highly recommend seeing it.  And if you are in an especially ornery frame of mind because of AIG and the bailouts, the film does have a nice villanous corporate angle as well. Here’s the video of Charlie Rose talking to Julia Roberts, Clive Owen and Tony Gilroy […]

Read more ›

Goldman: Quote of the day – “Leopards change spots”

If you haven’t noticed, I think the Geithner Plan, while far from perfect, has a reasonable chance of success. Marshall, too, believes the plan could work as he has suggested in his last post. The optics of it are another matter. “Goldman has already said they will repay their TARP money within a month (obviously all of this negative press […]

Read more ›
Since when has the Treasury ever pre-announced the exact maturities that they will buy and when?

Since when has the Treasury ever pre-announced the exact maturities that they will buy and when?

It is almost like they are trying to manipulate the market prices on a day to day basis. At best the total $300 billion is probably less than 1/5th of total treasury issuance (not counting TARP, etc, for fiscal 2010). By the way, I calculated that Treasury interest cost has decreased and is running around $250 Billion, down significantly from […]

Read more ›

Fitch: Prime RMBS loss estimates way too low

This comes from Angus Robertson of Research Recap.  Expect some major writedowns here going forward: A dramatic rise in delinquencies has led Fitch Ratings to raise its average loss estimates for recent vintage jumbo prime mortgage pools to between 3 and 5 times higher than its previous estimate. Fitch’s revised average loss estimates as a percentage of the remaining pool […]

Read more ›