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Spain PMI at a 84-month high

Spain PMI at a 84-month high

Markit’s June Manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone came out this morning. And overall, the numbers showed less strength across the board, with France showing particular weakness. You can see that Spain and Ireland were doing well though. Spain was at a 7-year high in fact. This is why I am bullish on Spain. The breakout in the economy is not […]

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On the BIS annual report, monetary policy and the hazards of overindebtedness

On the BIS annual report, monetary policy and the hazards of overindebtedness

The 2014 BIS Annual Report warns again about the perils of ultra-easy monetary policy as it did in the lead-up to the Great Financial Crisis. I think the BIS could prove a Cassandra here and will explain below. Nevertheless, many refuse to heed its warnings because of the concern with the sluggishness of the real economy in developed economies and the worry about becoming the next Japan. The problem, as the BIS states, is debt. But the answer is not restrictive policy and structural reform as the BIS argues. Rather it is an acceptance of fiscal policy outcomes as mostly endogenous.

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Links: 2014-06-30

Links: 2014-06-30

I have 30 links today instead of the usual 20. GM to Recall 7.6 Million More Vehicles in U.S. – WSJ Turkey rejects Kurdish independence, wants Iraq unity government, officials say | Reuters Russian stocks stage remarkable turnround – FT.com Puerto Rico on CreditWatch Negative as Governor OKs Bill – Bloomberg Euro-Zone Inflation Rate Stays at Lowest Level in Over […]

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Economic and market themes: 2014-06-27 Fed will trigger the next crisis

Economic and market themes: 2014-06-27 Fed will trigger the next crisis

The title here is a bit provocative I know. But it is really something I stole from an article about Stephen Roach’s view that I will use as a jumping off point for my Friday review.

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News: 2014-06-27

News: 2014-06-27

News links for 27 Jun 2014

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On how credit excesses will undermine this cyclical upturn

On how credit excesses will undermine this cyclical upturn

I am not impressed with macro policy that is managed purely to give a cyclical boost to the economy at the expense of secular sustainability. That makes it hard to look at what’s happening with macro policy now without scepticism and criticism. I would like to say that the upbeat near-turn forecasts are something to celebrate. But I can’t because they are predicated on unsustainable secular trends. A few brief thoughts below

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News: 2014-06-26

News: 2014-06-26

News links for 26 Jun 2014

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My thoughts on the US economy

My thoughts on the US economy

The last revision for Q1 2014 released today at 8:30AM was the largest downward revision since second and third revisions began in 1976. Instead of contracting at an annualized 1.0% pace, the economy contracted at a 2.9% pace. That is a severe slowdown. While this is rear-view mirror stuff, I do have a few comments and two video clips. First, […]

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Where are we in the economic cycle?

Where are we in the economic cycle?

After a number of years of stall speed growth, the US economy seems to be breaking out, even as the Fed has turned toward a tightening bias. As this cycle continues, we should not underestimate the ability of the US economy to continue moving forward. But we still need to ask where we are in the economic cycle to gauge […]

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News: 2014-06-24

News: 2014-06-24

U.S. consumer confidence rises in June | Reuters Calculated Risk: New Home Sales increase sharply to 504,000 Annual Rate in May Calculated Risk: Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 10.8% year-over-year in April Could Iraq Be Another Libya for China? | The Diplomat Pent up demand drives house building up 132pc in first four months – Independent.ie Researchers Find and […]

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Why the Amazon Fire Phone is DOA

Why the Amazon Fire Phone is DOA

Today’s post is about technology and the dynamics of market saturation. My contention over the past couple of years has been that the mobile market in developed economies was becoming saturated to the point that the economics of commoditization would come to dominate the market place. The implication for both telecom operators and device makers could be stark. Back in […]

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News: 2014-06-23

News: 2014-06-23

Happy Monday. I will be back to normal posting on Tuesday. Here are today’s links. Markit Flash PMI, June 2014 – Business Insider Housing Market Falters Amid Rising Prices, Lower-Paying Jobs – Bloomberg BBC News – Did Hyman Minsky find the secret behind financial crashes? BNP Near Settlement With U.S. for Up to $9 Billion – WSJ China Manufacturing Gauge […]

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