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The Italian Runaway Train

The Italian Runaway Train

By Edward Hugh There has been lot’s of debate in the press and in academic circles over the last week or so about whether Italy’s latest contraction constitutes a triple dip recession or simply a continuation of what’s been going on over many many years. This is an interesting theoretical nicety, but in fact what is happening in Italy at […]

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Abenomics – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Abenomics – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Japan needs deep seated cultural changes, especially ones directed to greater female empowerment and more openness towards immigration. Japan needs a series of structural reforms – like those under discussion around the third arrow – but these would be to soften the blow of workforce and population decline, not an attempt to run away from it. Monetary policy has its limits. As Martin Wolf so aptly put it, “you can’t print babies”.

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“I am determined that the American dollar must never again be a hostage in the hands of  international speculators”

“I am determined that the American dollar must never again be a hostage in the hands of international speculators”

Below is the video of Richard Nixon closing the gold window exactly 43 years ago today. Hat tip to Raja Korman

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Some brief thoughts on private debt, financial fragility and economic growth

Some brief thoughts on private debt, financial fragility and economic growth

I am very interested in the intersection of private debt, financial fragility and economic growth because I believe this intersection is pivotal in understanding whether the secular forces which led to the Great Financial Crisis have been arrested. I want to use Ireland as a jumping off point here for a wider questioning. Here’s what we know. Ireland has been […]

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Links: 2014-08-04

Links: 2014-08-04

China dumps Symantec, Kaspersky Lab from approved vendors – CNET ekathimerini.com | Moody’s upgrades Greece by two notches China Services Index Drops to Six-Month Low on Property – Bloomberg We owe five times more than we did in 2008 – Independent.ie Enough Russian Roulette with Nuclear Fire | Ian Welsh BES seniors fly; sub capitulates | Capital City | IFRe […]

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Economic and market themes: 2014-08-01 US, China, Argentina, France

Economic and market themes: 2014-08-01 US, China, Argentina, France

This week’s economic and market themes piece is going to be a little shorter than usual because I have covered a lot of the major topics earlier in the week. Full commentary at Credit Writedowns Pro

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Links: 2014-08-01

Links: 2014-08-01

Puerto Rico Power Authority in Deal With Banks to Defer Loan Payments – WSJ Argentina accuses US of judicial malpractice for triggering needless default – Telegraph History Suggests China Is on Verge of Banking Crisis – China Real Time Report – WSJ China’s factories spring to life as global trade reawakens | Reuters Europe’s ‘sick man’ France dealt another blow […]

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Upbeat cyclical trends are juxtaposed to underlying financial fragility

Upbeat cyclical trends are juxtaposed to underlying financial fragility

This post is on the same topic of the US economy that I addressed yesterday. But I want to go a bit deeper and add more colour to my comments. Signs that the US economy’s cyclical outlook are improving are getting ever more numerous, especially when we look at the labor market. Full commentary at Credit Writedowns Pro

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Links: 2014-07-31

Links: 2014-07-31

FYI: After the tech links, there is at least one link in this lot that I do not endorse but do think is required reading. Android crypto blunder exposes users to highly privileged malware | Ars Technica Tor received $1.8 million in US federal funds last year, while the NSA tried to crack it | The Verge Twitter’s Big Second […]

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US GDP numbers and Russian sanctions scenarios

US GDP numbers and Russian sanctions scenarios

The bottom line here is that I have been and still am bullish on the cyclical prospects in the US, UK and Spain in particular. The US jobless claims numbers are unusually low and that tells you that slack in the labour market is declining. Moreover, we are likely to see inventory builds here, adding to more momentum. Nonetheless, I do have two caveats for the US.

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Links: 2014-07-30

Links: 2014-07-30

News links for 30 Jul 2014

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Europe: A plan to boost economy by cutting taxes

Europe: A plan to boost economy by cutting taxes

By Andrea Terzi originally published at Social Europe and republished with consent of Author The anti-austerity vote in the European elections reflected two different kinds of discontent. One is a feeling of frustration, which is invigorating nationalism: the vote for “less Europe.” The other is a lack of confidence in current EU policies: the vote for “another Europe.” In both […]

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